NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
Resumes:
1 Oregon 23%
2 BYU 25%
3 Ohio State 48%
4 Miami 60%
5 Penn State 61%
6 Texas 62%
7 Alabama 62%
8 Tennessee 62%
9 Indiana 64%
10 UGA 68%
11 Ole Miss 70%
12 Notre Dame 80%
13 SMU 81%
14 LSU 81%
15 ATM 83%
16 Boise 83%
17 South Carolina 84%
18 K State 88%
19 Wazzu 92%
20 Clemson 94%
BYU continues to have a very good resume. Almost all the B12 road games are coming back in the 80s, which is pretty decent. @ Baylor and @ UCF are actually tougher than K-State at home! @ SMU is a really solid victory
Bama and UGA's resumes are still good, they've just played so many marquee opponents
I'm actually surprised that Miami is still at 60%. @ Louisville and @ Florida are sneaky solid wins, and @ Cal is only 80% win prob for a #10 team
It's wild that Boise is actually overrated by the committee. Their committee ranking is higher than both their power AND their resume
Ok yeah wow, these SEC scenarios are actually crazy
The Mizzou (Bama) v Arkansas (LSU) game is important for tiebreaks between Bama and LSU
didn't realize how many paths LSU still had
Didn't realize how thin UGA is drawing too
there are some hilariously off lines on DK
if anybody wants to proxy for me, dm me, they've shadowbanned me twice already
I think objectively that BYU that lost the CCG would be 12-1, not 11-1. Subjectively I think the PC will cap the # of Big2 teams with 2 losses to allow in most/all of the inferior but pretty looking 1-loss teams. And yes it excluding an 11-1 ND or 12-1 BYU is bad for business.
there are some hilariously off lines on DK
if anybody wants to proxy for me, dm me, they've shadowbanned me twice already
This means . . . they don't book your bets because they determined you are a sharp
Thank God Norvell figured out the issues that are causing the program to suck. Tough targeting call, can go either way. @Bears- ASU just falls out of rankings?
If Riley Leonard breaks his leg, maybe. But does anyone even know the name of BYU's quarterback?
We need Boise St to lose so a 12-1 Army team can sneak in if they can’t upset ND.
It's wild that Boise is actually overrated by the committee. Their committee ranking is higher than both their power AND their resume
guessing an ass ton of jauntily perched committee reading glasses across nose bridges while deciphering the data is one reason
there are some hilariously off lines on DK
if anybody wants to proxy for me, dm me, they've shadowbanned me twice already
not doubting your data, but curious the clues to make you think shadowban
Well, when I first signed up, they were letting me bet 10k on sides and futures no problem.
Within two weeks, I was allowed to bet four dollars per game. Most futures my max wager was $1.
Got a friend to sign up for an account, again limits were 10k or higher, then limited to $10 after about a month. Was going fine until I started betting big on WNBA win totals, and then got zapped pretty quick.
Most recent account, got a new laptop and only ever logged in from work, bet nothing but futures, doesn't matter. now limited to $100
Now only ever bet futures and have my friends proxy for me and only take the best bets, but they don't feel comfortable betting big $
Same thing as happened to me on FD, Caesars and betrivers, but DK is by far the worst. Caesars took a full year to cut, but now I'm basically limited to zero there too. FD cut pretty fast but they still let me bet like $500 on most games, and day-of can bet up to like 1-2k, and can bet 4-5k on NFL. My second FD account is allowed about half that. Way less than at the start, but still not nothing. Betrivers took a while too on my first account, and my second account still has decent limits.
BetMGM is the only one that hasn't cut me yet, but I have been super careful there. No WNBA, no small school stuff, no props. Almost entirely futures.
I talked to a few people who know what's going on, it's crazy annoying now. Getting access to accounts is harder than finding +EV lines, and these guys are doing all sorts of stuff to not get banned like seeding the account with tons of parlays and stuff right when they sign up, etc.
I’d assumed everyone had heard about this by now. Obviously not, or your behavior would only make sense in a prop bet on how quickly you *could* get banned.
In your case, I’d skip the crazy parlays in favor of requesting a line on specifically “11-2 CCG loser BYU beats out 11-1 Notre Dame for playoff entry”. and tell them you think the odds should be about even and you intend to bet it to the max, as you do in all things. That is the sort of thing that might get you on the coveted “it’s ok, he’ll give it all back on other things” list.
For actual insight, I audiobooked ‘Interception’ recently which largely focussed on at least delaying the throttling at the legal books. Just an audiobook so I only retained about 10% of it, but at least half of that was useful.
On paper, this week should be the calm before the storm (although last time this happened, crazy **** went down)
TUESDAY
Ball State 4
Buffalo -3.5
Western Michigan 9.5
Bowling Green -9.5
WMU, BGSU, Ohio and MiamiOH are all 4-2, with Toledo lurking at 3-2. A bunch of them play each other in quasi semifinals
Central Michigan 14.5
Toledo -14.5
WEDNESDAY
Akron 15
Northern Illinois -15
Eastern Michigan 10
Ohio -9.5
Kent 30.5
Miami (OH) -30
THURSDAY
East Carolina -14
Tulsa 14
FRIDAY
North Texas -2
UTSA 2
Wyoming 10
Colorado State -10
UCLA 3.5
Washington -3.5
Critical game for bowl eligibility for each team. UCLA has won 3 in a row to improve to 4-5 with USC and Fresno coming up. Washington is 5-5 and their finale is @ Oregon, so this is probably it for them
Houston 1.5
Arizona -1
SATURDAY
Tulane -7
Navy 7
Very critical game for the G5 playoff race. Tulane ends with @ Navy and v Memphis. If they win out and win the AAC, they are probably behind Boise but ahead of UNLV or Boise that loses a game then wins the MWC. H2H over Louisiana keeps them ahead there no matter what. If Navy wins, then they are in great shape to set up the double Army/Navy game on back to back weekends
Texas -13.5
Arkansas 13.5
Texas is now the SEC favorite. The SEC log jam means that a 2 loss team is very plausibly getting left out (in addition to Mizzou). People are realizing that Texas actually has zero ranked wins right now, although beating ATM in the finale probably keeps them in.
Utah 10
Colorado -10
COACH PRIME haters been real quiet lately. Colorado controls their own destiny in the B12 and the playoffs, but if they drop a game, the H2H loss to K-State might really hurt them.
Clemson -10
Pittsburgh 10
Clemson is drawing super thin to win the ACC (needs either Miami to lose or SMU to lose TWO (or SMU to lose 1 and UVA to pass Louisville). But, their best case scenario for an at-large is SMU loses 1, Miami > SMU in the ACCCG, so Miami is 12-1 and SMU is 10-3 and clearly out of it. Clemson could finish 10-2 with wins @ VT, @ Pitt and v South Carolina. They're probably dead, but there's some chance that they squeeze in as the last bid if there's chaos.
Liberty -14
Massachusetts 14.5
Louisiana Tech 14
Western Kentucky -13.5
Ohio State -28.5
Northwestern 29.5
Louisiana-Monroe 24
Auburn -24
Coastal Carolina 8.5
Marshall -8.5
Florida Atlantic 3
Temple -2.5
Florida International 14
Jacksonville State -13.5
Michigan State 2.5
Illinois -2.5
Hawaii -2.5
Utah State 2.5
Syracuse 8
California -8
Sam Houston -14.5
Kennesaw State 14.5
South Florida -3
UNC Charlotte 3.5
Oregon State -4
Air Force 4.5
LSU -4.5
Florida 4.5
Boston College 17
SMU -17
SMU closes v BC, @ UVA and v Cal. None of those are gonna show up on the radar as marquee games, but it's also not like they are playing Murray State and Mercer. They're still in the ACCCG even with a loss, and their chances of getting to the playoff as an at large have shrunk a ton lately with the SEC 10-2 logjam.
Louisville -20
Stanford 20
Virginia 22.5
Notre Dame -22.5
As I've been saying for weeks, I think ND is basically dead if they lose another game, though Vegas disagrees.
Penn State -28.5
Purdue 28.5
Troy 8.5
Georgia Southern -7.5
James Madison -2.5
Old Dominion 3
Baylor -3
West Virginia 3
Nebraska 9
USC -8.5
Nebraska has lost 3 in a row, and hasn't been to a bowl in like 8 years. USC has lost 3 of 4 and has UCLA and ND on deck
Missouri 12.5
South Carolina -12.5
Hoping that surging South Carolina can officially get rid of Mizzou. Clemson is also rooting for USCe to be 8-3 and ranked in the top-20 coming in to their season-ending matchup
Arkansas State 2
Georgia State -2
Rutgers 6
Maryland -5.5
Boise State -13.5
San Jose State 13.5
Boise's toughest test between here and the MWCCG. Jeanty went off again last week, but they only beat Nevada by 7
South Alabama 7.5
Louisiana-Lafayette -7
Southern Miss 27
Texas State -27
Arizona State 9.5
Kansas State -8.5
Clear elimination game for both teams. To get in to the B12CG, KSU needs to win out and have Colorado lose (or have BYU lose 2/3 which isn't crazy seeing as they're only -3 at home vs Kansas). ASU is extremely live if they win out - they'd KO K-State (and pick up the tiebreaker vs Colorado if Colorado loses) and they'd hand BYU a loss. They win lots of H2H and multiway tiebreaks between Colorado, ISU and BYU if there is a tie at 2 conference losses.
Tennessee 10
Georgia -9.5
Tons at stake for both teams. If Tennessee loses, they're 100% eliminated if they lose @ Vandy, and even if they win, they are likely to be the last team in the SEC 10-2 pecking order, as they only have 1 top-25 win. If UGA loses, that's their 3rd loss, which would get weighed against their incredibly tough schedule, and it's not clear how the committee would rule.
Oregon -14
Wisconsin 14.5
New Mexico State 39.5
Texas A&M -39
UAB 14.5
Memphis -14
Cincinnati 8.5
Iowa State -8.5
Despite losing two in a row, ISU is still very live. If they win out, they KO K-State and are behind 1-loss colorado and 0-loss BYU
I think they usually pass BYU if BYU loses 2
If Colorado loses to Kansas, ISU would jump them (both would have 2 mutual losses and K-State would be the tiebreak), but if Colorado loses 1 to Utah or OSU, then ISU has 2 mutual losses while Colorado has 1, and Colorado would win the tiebreak.
Wake Forest 11.5
North Carolina -10.5
Washington State -13
New Mexico 13
Kansas 3
BYU -2.5
Your undefeated BYU cougars, with the second best resume in CFB are only a 3 point favorite at home versus 3-6 Kansas. KU is the Big-12's version of Auburn or USC - a pretty good team that has run absolutely atrocious in close games.
San Diego State 20
UNLV -20
“11-2 CCG loser BYU beats out 11-1 Notre Dame for playoff entry”. and tell them you think the odds should be about even and you intend to bet it to the max, as you do in all things. That is the sort of thing that might get you on the coveted “it’s ok, he’ll give it all back on other things” list.
I think 12-1 CCG loser BYU is an at-large ahead of 11-1 ND
11-2 no chance
Assuming the B1G gets 3 at larges (Penn State should be nervous about getting in at 10-2 though), then we have 4 at-large spots left
So the big Q is can the B12 or ACC get a second team:
12-2 Miami or SMU CG losers are drawing pretty thin
10-2 Clemson's best path is 12-1 Miami beats 10-3 SMU in the CG
12-1 CCG loser BYU is the strongest contender from the B12, and the only team that has any chance of being ahead of any of the below 7 unless they win out
Only other contender is 10-2 KSU which does not play in the B12CG, and Colorado loses the CG
There are 6 SEC teams currently in the logjam:
1L Texas (who plays ATM)
1L Tennessee (who plays UGA)
2L UGA (who plays Tenn)
2L ATM (who plays Texas)
2L Alabama
2L Ole Miss
And then 11-1 Notre Dame
So you need those 7 teams to only take up 3 spots
The easiest plausible eliminations:
ATM is the easiest one to eliminate, they lose to Texas
Notre Dame is the next easiest to eliminate, they lose neutral to Army or @ underrated USC in the final game
Ole Miss is 17% to lose @ Florida. Almost no chance they lose to Mississippi State at home, but hey, once in a blue moon crazy **** happens in rivalries.
Teams that could pick up 3 losses, but probably still ahead of 10-2 Clemson or 10-2 K-State (but not 12-1 BYU)
Bama is 24% to lose either @ Oklahoma or vs Auburn, although with wins over Georgia, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri and Wisconsin, I think they are still hanging in there
UGA is 27% to lose to Tenn or GT, but the wins @ Texas and n Clemson are huge boosts. Zero chance 10-2 Clemson can jump a 9-3 Georgia team that nuked them.
Then you have the teams with 1 loss but weak-ish resumes that you need to lose twice:
Texas - the annoying thing is that even if Texas lost twice, almost always one of those losses is to ATM, who would then likely be in. You need some sequence of events like Texas loses @ Arkansas or v Kentucky and then also v ATM but ATM also loses @ Auburn. (Or Texas loses to both Arkansas and Kentucky then beats ATM) Probably not happening.
Tennessee is obviously out if they lose @ Georgia and @ Vandy, but if they get blown out by UGA there's some slim chance that they also get left out at 10-2. I think they might sink behind 12-1 BYU and 11-1 ND, but have a hard time seeing them drop past 10-2 Clemson or 10-2 K-State
So yeah, in conclusion I think 10-2 K-State and 10-2 Clemson (and 11-2 SMU) are basically dead for an at-large, but 12-1 BYU is very live. 11-2 Miami might have like a 10% shot, but I wouldn't want to be in that position if I were them
Actually, yeah there is like a 25% chance Penn State loses either @ Minnesota or v Maryland in the finale, and I think they'd actually be lower in the chain than every 10-2 SEC team other than Mizzou. Like, they probably won't lose but either of those would be pretty bad losses
They'd also obviously be behind 12-1 BYU and 11-1 Notre Dame.
They'd be 10-2 with zero ranked wins, one loss to an elite team and one loss to a mediocre team. Clemson (1-2) and K-State (1-2) would at least have one or two ranked wins, and it's not even crazy that 11-2 Miami could stay ahead of them to "not get punished" for losing the ACCCG. Miami has a lot better shot, I think, K-State and Clemson are just so far behind right now
Vegas odds / my odds
ACC
Miami 56 / 52
SMU 40 / 37
Clemson 22 / 15
B12 (just taking the Vegas B12 title odds for granted, even though I think they might be somewhat off)
Colorado 38 / 38 (0% at large)
BYU 45 / 45 (12% at large)
ISU 11 / 11 (0% at large)
K State 12 / 12 (1% at large)
ASU 6 / 4 (0% at large)
B1G
Oregon 98 / 100
OSU 98 / 99
Indiana 83 / 96
Penn Stat 89 / 87
SEC
Texas 94 / 95
Georgia 83 / 80
Ole Miss 77 / 81
Alabama 77 / 80
Tennessee 77 / 73
Texas A&M 24 / 16
LSU 12 / 2
Missouri 4 / 1
Notre Dame
77 / 54
I talked to a few people who know what's going on, it's crazy annoying now. Getting access to accounts is harder than finding +EV lines, and these guys are doing all sorts of stuff to not get banned like seeding the account with tons of parlays and stuff right when they sign up, etc.
thanks for sharing the insite. i don't SB, so don't know the 'system' works.
Ah, misunderstood/assumed they already had an L. I really know nothing about them—def never seen that qb name before (which is surprising since I watched the SMU game, twice).
The thing is I think 11-1 Notre Dame would probably be in the mix for hosting a playoff game, not scrapping for the 11th spot. Particularly if they continue trucking teams like they owed them money.
BYU might also depend on how they play from here—I couldn’t believe it when the committee was so impressed by TCU heroically coming back to lose the CCG to a mediocre KState closer than most of the game looked to give them the #3 seed, cough cough, so they may very well be smitten by BYU as well. Or it could be the old “late season loss” plus the new “B12 is much weaker now” (so weak they might not even get the 4 seed) combo. Or maybe memories of 65-7 while eating hotdogs on the sideline.
Rankings today make it seem like playoff committee mostly sorts by losses with a few exceptions where there is a big difference in resume or power rating or both.
Texas a and m will play in the sec title game if they beat Texas and if they lose that they won't get in with 3 losses almost ever imo.
Texas resume seems not that great and id consider fading them at current odds. Could be last of the sec teams resume wise (them or Tennessee) if they lose one more.
Ah, misunderstood/assumed they already had an L. I really know nothing about them—def never seen that qb name before (which is surprising since I watched the SMU game, twice).
You're missing out on one of CFB's most hilarious stories. Jake "BYJew" Retzlaff is one of three total Jewish students at BYU.
I was coming in here to ask about what chance Army has of making the playoffs. didn't realise they still have to be play ND
It is difficult to exaggerate how weak Army's schedule is.
They've played:
#188 Lehigh
#126 Tulsa
#125 Temple
#121 Air Force
#122 FAU
#95 Rice
#86 ECU
#80 North Texas
How many teams in the country do you thin would be undefeated against that slate? Multiple FCS teams have played harder schedules
We live in the age of top 5 Indiana. Amazing
The B1G will win 0 playoff games
Anyone who wants to take o0.5 let's discuss odds