2-5 with 33 vs. transparent player QQ+ on KJ532

It all seems pretty standard and well played to me. I'd expect AA more often than KK, just based on the number of combos available.

I think I would just bet turn and jam river. I wouldn’t expect Villain to bluff ever or value bet thinly (do you really think QQ bets river??) so I don’t like check/call on turn even if that might be the best play in theory.

When I raise on river I ask myself two questions. Given the play of the hand so far am I going to fold anything better? Am I going to get called by anything worse? You know V much better than I do from your description but the play so far screams flopped set that will beat us or a QQ trying for thin value that is unlikely to call.

Im gonna be insta proven wrong from reveal, but in my experience Flop check from a fish like this is never in a million zillion jillion years AA or AK. People LOVE to check top set on the flop so id say 90%+ of the KK in their range are checking flop. I am EXTREMELY wary in 3 bet pots when flop gets checked against all sorts of Vs, including pros.

If your read is right then im check/call turn (hoping its QQ) and sad call river simply because I cant trust your reads enough to fold, but if you trust your reads enough you could fold, and if he shows up with like KJ kick yourself for your bad preflop read.

bet turn, bet river, consider folding river to raise depending on sizing, since this is only KK/JJ here. I agree with other commentor that I don't like turn check, bc villain is not going to bluff or value bet like QQ here for two streets enough. when opponents are too passive, just bet when you have value.

Yeah, I think call down. Check is weird by 3-bettor on K-high flop. If it was some wet mid or low flop, then check is less suspicious.

I wouldn’t raise river. The hands that might check flop from the range you put him on are KK QQ JJ and raising against those hands just light our stack on fire or gets a fold from QQ.

I don’t think AA and AK check back flop very often if ever from this player type.

To the people who are advocating to call down in this spot out of fear of running into a set - why is that line better than betting small on turn and then bet/folding river? Could go $50 on turn and then $100 on river and then fold to Villain's jam of ~$300.

Again, I prefer to bet big on turn to jam river, but if we are operating under the assumption that Villain's line is always either a trap or QQ, let's at least target the QQ for value?

Of all the soul reads on these forums, i think “he only has QQ+ AK when he 3 bets” is one of the ones im most inclined to trust.

Also, an absurd amount of your winrate also oughta come from being able to get away from your hand against face up opponents. Like its fine to say that our flop read isnt as trustworthy, but I just dont think this is fat value unless OP is making bad reads, and if so then id just say “get better reads”

Yeah i like double blockerish bet and fold to raise better actually. I ageee with this

im not talking about preflop. im talking about check the turn and / or not putting in stacks with 33 on kj53tt at spr 3.5 in a 3b pot. the guy is pretty clearly bad in a way too loose kind of way from villain description, your hand is worth being all in, there rly isnt any evidence to warrant doing something else

the exact quote you responded to is "i think you should lead turn and jam river and anything else is too much soul reading" or something of that nature

Full reveal with thoughts...

i think the river shove is good (it's kind of a meh way for the money to go in to be honest but you need to put the money in here) but i think the lineoverall has a few issues. i get he doesn't know what's up but i do think its unlikely he bets twice with QQ. i honestly think hes more likely to bet 0 times than 2 with that hand. you also run the risk of having an action killer come on the river and let him check behind / show down (if you bet turn you can conceivably size down on the rivers that are hard for him to call on). the other thing too with the line is the only benefits i really see are either if he bluffs vs a check (impossible with the pre range you've assigned him - as an aside i think you're pegging him way too tight, u got no real room for spazzes or just random strong hands and you're discounting AK which unless u have a confirmed sizing tell is a mistake imo) or if he bets the turn and then just calls it off vs the raise because he's confused with something that would call turn probe and fold river or i guess fold to turn probe (qq in particular is the hand i'm thinking of). you do punish him if he goes too light for value / constructs ranges poorly, but let's be real this is not a guy or a situation you need to worry about balancing vs.

but think its an interesting hand nonetheless and i think shows the dangers of making way too strict assumptions about what our opps are doing with their hands vs different actions

Even with results, i think this line is a set well over 50% with that flop check (especially since JJ would also be a set if his range is slightly wider). I have run into just an extraordinary amount of sets after a 3b followed by flop check. Whether or not its a fold to the river bet may be questionable but theres no way you profitably jam over his bet imo. But also who knows, maybe im wrong, notch another one in the sub win column.

So, after reading some other posts, I admit I'd likely have started betting on the turn, absent a more detailed read that V would only play KK/JJ this way, but never AA and definitely not AK/KJ/QQ/AQ/QT.

I agree with others that betting turn is probably a better line. Set over set is just so rare that taking a value line with a set is usually best. Personally I struggle to remember the times I was able to get away from a set, or not go broke against a higher set.

All that said, I wonder what the EV difference is with OP's line, if we give OP the benefit of the doubt in his read, and node-lock V to always checking back flop and betting turn and river with AA/AK, and any other combos that might make sense.

If we allow ourselves to take a harder look at V's actions, I'd suggest his snap raise to 2.5x pre, and his check back on flop look more like AA/AK than a flopped set with KK/JJ. A flopped set would at least think about betting a two Broadway board, not quickly check.

The snap raise pre for a small size looks like a big PP. The check back on flop looks like V might be concerned hero has KJ or possibly JJ. If we start betting turn, even if we pot it, or over-bet the turn, V might not call off a river jam. So I kinda like hero's line here, check-calling flop and turn, then check-raise jamming the river.

I disagree with the read. I think the snap check is far weighted towards sets that are feigning weakness. I was quite surprised by result.

I see it all the time in plo where they raise flop with top set on a wet board then snap check turn when they make top full or quads as if the other guy is ever going to really bluff.

I dunno. I think bad players like V are always worried about bad beats, and would just bet the flop with their sets, not snap check back.