1/2 150bb: Bluff river after PFR checks-out-of-turn on flop?

My god what a mess. A min raise at 1/2 is weird enough without the string raise, and the CIB 3 bet and the oot check.

The bet otf seems smart given the reads, but otherwise im range checking.

OTR i have no clue why you think you oughta bluff he tried to check snd then just called flop, and then bet 1/3 pot ott, this is probably Tx so decent chance youre good. Also if he has basically anything other than Tx the bluff wont work rhat often cuz people dont really fold TP, and he either has TP trips or flush.

Yeah, was a mess preflop and on the flop, but happens occasionally with newer players (sometimes the dealers are a fault because they gesture to BN instead of SB to act first).

My read was that the check-out-of-turn on the flop meant Tx and overpairs could be removed from BN's range. So aside from the unlikely scenario that BN is bluffing turn, he's heavily weighted to AK-KJ.

In this respect, I don't believe we have enough showdown. But then the question is can we convince BN to fold Kx, since we have more 9x and (maybe) backdoor clubs? Might seem a little ambitious.

Yeah, if I'm playing my "A" this is a fold pre with a hand that can win a small pot or lose a large one.

QTs is a good multiway hand, shouldnt be folding for $6 if omc is just calling

An OMC raise-call range is going to dominate QT more than Catwoman after a line of cocaine

Yeah i bet. Anyway he folded flop after op hit top pair.

Given that I'd established, with enough confidence, that the OMC wasn't keen to shove, I believe QTs plays well enough multiway, as Tomark suggests. We can actually win large pots with this hand (e.g. nut straights) and really won't be placed in too many difficult spots on Qxx or Txx flops (maybe some with combo draws). An OMC raise-call range isn't too much to worry about, regardless of its potential to dominate, as that colorful metaphor suggests (if I understand it correctly), for we can fold to OMC aggression post-flop.

Btw, moxterite, the check-out-of-turn does significantly cap BN's range. I know it's possible for BN to check AA and KK on T94r but generally a rec is betting this flop with all their overpairs. He could check QJ but I'm not sure he's 3betting this hand very often. He might check A♣Q♣ or A♣J♣ and then bet those on a K♣ turn, so it's possible for him to have the nut flush on the river, which is another reason to give up.

Generally players seem more sticky on a paired board. Without having taken control OTT (so yes, a case for x/r OTT), I would x/fold river.

That being said, last night a guy folded second nuts to me OTR b/c he didn't have the nuts, so if V is one of those guys, breathe on the pot and he folds....

I made soooo much money off him after he showed that fold, lol.

i dont really think hes going to fold a better hand

i think if you want to bluff you should do it ott. x/r is kind of interesting given his sizing

You're going to the flop 4-way and OOP with a trap hand. I don't know why you're solely focused on the OMC.

Probably because of the thing you said about being dominated by the omc. High suited cards are the correct hands to play multiway, and QTs is an extremely strong hand. I feel like this is like 40 year old outdated information from when supersystem recommended being wary with “trouble hands”.

Not beating anything on the turn except AQ, AJ which might not call flop, but if he can a small possibility if a bluff and we have potentially 9 outs to 2p+ then calling seems okay.

River I would plan to check fold. Recs tend not to believe it when backdoors come in and they aren't check calling with no pair on the flop to hit top pair and fold. I wouldn't expect a K or better to do a lot of folding on the river.

Interesting flop donk given the live reads. It's still a massive size for 4 ways. I'd probably go smaller.

I'm focused on OMC because (a) he wanted to RFI 3x rather than 2x (b) could thus be at top of his narrowish range and (c) BN reopened the action, meaning I might be call/folding a fair amount if OMC rips it with angle-shooting glee. If OMC had not fumbled his chips/changed his mind mid-action and just bet 3x and BN called, calling from the BB is non-controversial as far as I'm concerned. Part of what makes this hand interesting (to me at least) is the combination of a string-bet preflop and check-out-of-turn on the flop, because both misactions provide information about our opponents' ranges that we would not otherwise receive.

Yes, I guess we often value backdoor more than frontdoor draws precisely because many players don't take them into account, so if anything they are overcalling in these spots and we should be value-heavy.

I did consider a x/r given the sizing. We would have to expect to bet river large, though, if we x-r turn. If he'd sized 60%+ on turn I'm probably just folding, even with the gut-shot.

I hadn't played too many hands against BN so couldn't say whether he was overfolding or not. He seemed a typical 1/2ish rec, with some knowledge of poker, who was happy to be playing cards on the weekend. I wonder if the river paired the T instead of the 9 it would favour our range and therefore a successful bluff? Then again, my vague understanding of MDA is that board pairing rivers are overbluffed.

how would you ever have a 9 here? you bet 2/3 pot multiway with a 9 OTF?

Maybe if I saw BN check-out-of-turn I might bet J9-A9s, but less likely. I do have T9s of course in my range, which could just x-c turn. The real question is whether a weekend rec is sharp enough to identify that I shouldn't have much 9x.

The river pairing the T is better for a bluff, I'll admit, as a T will lead flop. In this respect, if say I took the same line on flop/turn with 8s7s and the river was Tc instead of 9c, should I bluff?

Be careful of bluffing into out of turn checks. I've seen players with strong hands employ this as an angle, to induce bets from OOP opponents, so they can raise. It's very tempting to bluff when opponents check out of turn.

I'd be leery of turning our hand into a bluff on the river here, when we bet flop, get two calls, and then BN bets turn when action checks to him. I think I'd just check-evaluate river. We could have some reasonably strong hands here, so it seems unlikely that V is going to bet large with thin value, or try to bluff with air.

Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I've seen the out-of-turn check become an angle and trap many times. In game, I was confident that it was a noobish error and decided to make the most of it.

I reluctantly agree with the longstanding rule that low-stakes recs don't fold top-pair no matter how face-up they play.