AQo vs Reg BW
6000 Hands . 23/20/9 WWSF 50% W%SD 55
FoldCbet Flop 48% Raise Cbet Flop 12%
iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 135.72 BB (VPIP: 32.81, PFR: 25.68, 3Bet Preflop: 12.69, Hands: 11,596)
CO: 36.06 BB (VPIP: 29.74, PFR: 9.40, 3Bet Preflop: 3.91, Hands: 608)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.85, PFR: 17.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.68, Hands: 24,313)
BB: 193.88 BB (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.34, Hands: 6,099)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.07, PFR: 21.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.40, Hands: 5,568)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♣ A♠
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB
Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♣ 8♥ Q♥
BB checks, Hero bets 1.82 BB, BB raises to 6.64 BB, Hero calls 4.82 BB
Turn: (18.78 BB, 2 players) A♦
BB checks, Hero bets 18.58 BB, BB calls 18.58 BB
River: (55.94 BB, 2 players) J♠
BB checks, [b]Hero
9 Replies
You are mostly targeting Axs so 1/3-1/2 seems ok
Ohh didnt see you bet turn not him. Yeah bet bigger like 2/3.
OTR should be a shove IMO, and I don't think any other size makes sense with our value range. It's not about what we're "targeting" .... It's about what our value is and what size we want to go with it. We're not betting here anything worse than 2pair (and even some 2pair should x back), so going smaller doesn't really make sense. I wouldn't be worried about 9T in his range (that would mostly barrel turn, real players maybe even more than a solver would, as they might see an A as a card on which you now fold decent amount of Qx, KK etc. - not saying that's how we should think about this spot but a lot of 50nl regs would.) If he has T9hh and checks turn, I'd expect him to mostly xshove especially against a pot size bet. KT again... how does he xR flop then xC turn with KT? even if he somehow has it, it's just 1 combo (hearts) and it will be low frequency. Sets should also barrel or xshove turn, so our equity by the river is huge.
Thinking of how people play this spot, it does look a lot like some Axhh or 87 type of hand, but they might still find a bluffcatch with those, and it's more profitable to shove and get called by those sometimes then going 1/3. Also, if you expect him to overfold, then it's probably a good spot to bluff, but I wouldn't go using 1 size for value (1/3) and shoving as a bluff unless you play vs complete donkeys or in anonymous fields.
OTR should be a shove IMO, and I don't think any other size makes sense with our value range. It's not about what we're "targeting" .... It's about what our value is and what size we want to go with it. We're not betting here anything worse than 2pair (and even some 2pair should x back), so going smaller doesn't really make sense. I wouldn't be worried about 9T in his range (that would mostly barrel turn, real players maybe even more than a solver would, as they might see an A as a card on whic
Wow, very nice análysys and I agree. Atm i check back because I dont have enough time to think deeper about the hand and ranges but with doubt, and really like to bet 1/3 atm. Now i really like to push it and I agree 100% with ur análysys. I think many regs of NL50 love to Bluffcatch and call with thin value too, so yes my hand is easy push OTR. If i have a Bluff like u said is villain dependant, sometimes will push and sometimes will give up OTR
Overbet turn/jam river seems especially good here after the small flop x/r. Most people are going to keep betting 88/77 on the turn, so they’re just always capped at 2p. I’d also consider 3b the flop since people don’t normally x/r enough and they’re going to have a lot of hearts and SD rather than trashy stuff that’s going to fold.
I guess jam river even though it seems awkward. I think you always have the best hand here.
