$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition
I am going to be starting with $25 in my Ignition Account and try to spin it up to $25,000.
I will start at 5nl since it is the lowest stake on the site and be playing Ignition Reg tables only.
I will be updating every 5k hands with my progress.
My expectation for each limit is as follows:
Expected Winrates for each limit:
5NL: 30bb/100
10NL: 25bb/100
25NL: 20bb/100
50NL: 15bb/100
100NL: 12bb/100
200NL: 10bb/100
Variance will be a decent factor in a lot of these winrates but these are just ball park numbers. Once I hit 25k I will take a 10buyin shot at 500nl! As far as moving up I'll move up whenever I feel like it, but probably after winning 30-40 buyins at the limit.
There will be no cherry picking here since you can't cherry pick a Bankroll Challenge. Wish me luck (or not) and follow along in this thread.
hey DDP wanted to ask your thoughts on this gross spot, i believe this line is pretty nutted but not sure where our folding thresholds are, thought about mucking turn lol but raise size was small
I think I actually beat some KT here but i dont know if its frequent enough since they prob xr flop so i just run into a ton of 6x in practice, lmk what u think thanks haha
hey DDP wanted to ask your thoughts on this gross spot, i believe this line is pretty nutted but not sure where our folding thresholds are, thought about mucking turn lol but raise size was small
I think I actually beat some KT here but i dont know if its frequent enough since they prob xr flop so i just run into a ton of 6x in practice, lmk what u think thanks haha
Cool spot.
So if you look at xc30-XR MDA you see that paired turns are overbluffed by a lot.
Turn call is mandatory and then river is always a call on the blank.
He has less 6x than Tx (if we are comparing paired turns) which is another good data point and we block A6s completely which always calls flop.
All the minutia data points make us want to call (blockers/minraise preflop etc) but the important part is that this is an overbluffed runout.
Seems like you have perfect combo to call down, you double block A6s, unblock clubs and QJ. You're so high up in your range, beat some value, and he only bet half pot on river I would never fold this
Monday video
I prefer the format of going deep over 1 hand/spot over general advice.
This spot is talked about in this video around the 9:00 mark. I should of gone smaller but got lazy.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($34.14) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 43.7% | Hands: 227]
SB ($30.97) [VPIP: 35.1% | PFR: 31.6% | AGG: 75% | Flop Agg: 83.3% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 10% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 19]
HERO ($36.31) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12% | Cold Call: 10.1% | Hands: 138592]
UTG ($57.68) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 34.1% | Hands: 3131]
HJ ($27.56) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 43.8% | Hands: 172]
CO ($45.46) [VPIP: 17.7% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 1210]
Dealt to Hero: A♥ J♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.75, HERO Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [20.15 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 7♦ 5♦ 7♣
SB Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $29.47), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $34.81)
Turn ($3): 7♦ 5♦ 7♣ Q♠
SB Bets $2.25 (Rem. Stack: $27.22), HERO Calls $2.25 (Rem. Stack: $32.56)
River ($7.50): 7♦ 5♦ 7♣ Q♠ 9♥
SB Bets $5.62 (Rem. Stack: $21.60), HERO Raises To $32.56 (allin), SB Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $17.81
Man sorry to spam your page but just had a interesting spot where I believe population range construction is far stronger than GTO, this hand is worth 60+BB in gto i think but in reality its honestly doing pretty bad (maybe like 10-20BB), do you think its better to jam turn or call turn here vs average 25b reg? I think call turn to fold river is good vs nits since they basically never find bluffs here, but not sure if its worth trying to deny equity from sets by jamming. Appreciate any thoughts as always.
Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 98.6 BB
SB: 122.2 BB
Hero (BB): 199.08 BB
UTG: 101.88 BB
MP: 109.64 BB
CO: 128.72 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♥ Q♥
fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, CO calls 9 BB
Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) J♦ 9♣ 7♣
Hero bets 5.8 BB, CO raises to 19.72 BB, Hero calls 13.92 BB
Turn: (63.84 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, CO bets 20 BB, Hero?
Man sorry to spam your page but just had a interesting spot where I believe population range construction is far stronger than GTO, this hand is worth 60+BB in gto i think but in reality its honestly doing pretty bad (maybe like 10-20BB), do you think its better to jam turn or call turn here vs average 25b reg? I think call turn to fold river is good vs nits since they basically never find bluffs here, but not sure if its worth trying to deny equity from sets by jamming. Appreciate any thoughts
NP man this hand has some good concepts.
I would start off with a high frequency X OTF but if I bet I go big. You don't really have 99/77 and the FD is bad for you.
I would just call turn and call blank rivers river since you can beat some value. I expect sets to value bet on a blank river and we unblock sets.
The important point for me is the flop - this is a big bet spot only, especially given your SPR and how you are slightly deeper. You need to have a turn jamming range on a bunch of turns so you don't want to go small here.
Got it thanks, in game I jammed and ran into nut flush obv lol.. I bet very small on flop because I thought he was a fish based on the 3bb open but then looking at his stats later and that he was russian I realized he was a reg lol. I felt like alot of regs in this pool are too tight to bet river with sets so I thought I should jam myself with hand that can get called by worse but I know in gto sets will jam river.
Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 98.6 BB
SB: 122.2 BB
Hero (BB): 199.08 BB
UTG: 101.88 BB
MP: 109.64 BB
CO: 128.72 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♥ Q♥
fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, CO calls 9 BB
Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) J♦ 9♣ 7♣
Hero bets 5.8 BB, CO raises to 19.72 BB, Hero calls 13.92 BB
Turn: (63.84 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, CO bets 20 BB, Hero raises to 167.36 BB and is all-in, CO calls 77 BB and is all-in
River: (257.84 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero shows T♥ Q♥ (Straight, King High)
(Pre 30%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)
CO shows T♣ A♣ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 70%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 245.84 BB
Got it thanks, in game I jammed and ran into nut flush obv lol.. I bet very small on flop because I thought he was a fish based on the 3bb open but then looking at his stats later and that he was russian I realized he was a reg lol. I felt like alot of regs in this pool are too tight to bet river with sets so I thought I should jam myself with hand that can get called by worse but I know in gto sets will jam river.
Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 98.6 BB
SB: 122.2
It's possible he doesn't value bet sets OTR which makes him freeroll OTT.
The 25b pool is really tight so a lot of coolers that are coolers in theory can be folded in practice. Another reason why I prefer just calling turn is we learn more about his range OTR. If a club comes we fold to a river jam/if it pairs we fold as we now only have a bluff catcher.
I also wouldn't play GTO preflop. QTs sucks in 3bet pots as you are basically dominated by everything and on a bunch of runouts you just have a bluff catcher. We want to avoid bluff catching scenarios in tight pools. A lot of EV we gain in theory from this hand doesn't happen at 25b.
Yeah agreed call turn is better to make exploit folds river, I think I took the lazy route and didnt want to make a tough decision on river but in hindsight the river decision is probably where our edge is at vs nits if we correctly identify the underbluffed spots. I normally don't 3bet this hand BB vs CO vs regs, thought he was a fish until I was halfway through the hand lmao
Yeah agreed call turn is better to make exploit folds river, I think I took the lazy route and didnt want to make a tough decision on river but in hindsight the river decision is probably where our edge is at vs nits if we correctly identify the underbluffed spots. I normally don't 3bet this hand BB vs CO vs regs, thought he was a fish until I was halfway through the hand lmao
If he is a fish probably just call preflop since they call with hands like ATo/KQo/KTo more often.
You want to go more polarized vs fish IP for this reason but when OOP just go value heavy and not merged.
Agreed the river is the best spot for exploits. The pot is the biggest and we also see the biggest deviations from theory.
Poker is a concept game not a memorization game. It's also a specific game not a general game.
New video here on an important concept for 3bps.
The sound is not perfect but its an important concept so i will just leave it up.
Poker is a concept game not a memorization game. It's also a specific game not a general game.
I've been thinking about this too and I have come to realize that as valueable as MDA is, this is why one should not get too fixated on MDA, just like one shouldn't get too fixated on GTO.
MDA is a just an average (=general) from the past of a particular situation. Even if we are looking at MDA for a very specific situation/texture/filter, we are still only looking at a past average for that specific situation/texture/filter.
In reality, we are always playing against this specific opponent, in this specific moment, with this specific gameflow.
For example, a player may go from way overfolding (on average) to way overcalling (in this moment) if he is tilting or if he has recently come to perceive us as a spewtard, so we must also take gameflow into account.
The most extreme example: MDA says that a certain a spot is way overbluffed and that we should call all bluffcatchers.
But before we act our opponent flips over the nuts. Should we call in this specific situation just because MDA in general tells us that this
spot is way overbluffed? Of course not.
So in terms of generating winrate: Individual reads that takes gameflow into account > Static individual reads > MDA > GTO.
I've been thinking about this too and I have come to realize that as valueable as MDA is, this is why one should not get too fixated on MDA, just like one shouldn't get too fixated on GTO.
MDA is a just an average (=general) from the past of a particular situation. Even if we are looking at MDA for a very specific situation/texture/filter, we are still only looking at a past average for that specific situation/texture/filter.
In reality, we are always playing against this specific opponent, in
Very nicely stated.
One of the aspects I like about MDA is it really helps me understand theory in some spots. When I look at a hand through an MDA lens I work backwards from river since a lot of MDA is river spots.
Then I get to back engineer the spots in my mind and it helps me figure out why a spot is over or under bluffed.
Game flow is really underrated too. You want to be active at a table not passive. That’s basically means you should be doing things that stand out.
If you are playing a reg and theory says you get a river jamming range then jam. It will benefit you later on especially vs fish as they usually play one table and ironically pay more attention than regs.
Headset **** the bed but bought a new one so should be here tomorrow. Going to do a video on this and the theme is exploits you can use right now without studying.
Here is #1
1. When playing against weak regs (low WWSF) turn all 0EV bluff catchers into bluffs. They will underbluff but still overfold.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($32.67) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 139218]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 21.5% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 23.1% | Flop Agg: 20.4% | Turn Agg: 28% | River Agg: 25.8% | 3Bet: 6.8% | 4Bet: 15.7% | Cold Call: 9.9% | Hands: 1533]
UTG ($23.86) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 21]
HJ ($25.15) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 20.1% | AGG: 32.6% | Hands: 1053]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 19% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 1416]
BTN ($23.40) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 71]
Dealt to Hero: J♠ K♦
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 6♠ Q♣ 9♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.74 (Rem. Stack: $23.51), HERO Calls $0.74 (Rem. Stack: $31.18)
Turn ($2.98): 6♠ Q♣ 9♥ J♦
HERO Checks, BB Checks
River ($2.98): 6♠ Q♣ 9♥ J♦ 9♣
HERO Checks, BB Bets $4.26 (Rem. Stack: $19.25), HERO Raises To $31.18 (allin), BB Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $10.93
how’s the graph looking?
The gold rush is pretty much over and the market is saturated. I think you'd do way better doing individual coaching or just focusing on live poker. I know you said you didn't like coaching before, but you're good at explaining your thought process clearly, and the biggest asset a coach can have is being able to communicate clearly in a way the student/client can understand.
yeah this is like starting a business selling shovels in alaska and colorado today
Cool turn spot that didn't work out but I like it vs that sizing.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($29.98) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 11]
SB ($30.27) [VPIP: 13.9% | PFR: 8% | AGG: 27.7% | Hands: 382]
BB ($81.43) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 20.1% | AGG: 39.1% | Hands: 1963]
HERO ($31.47) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 139362]
HJ ($25.27) [VPIP: 10.9% | PFR: 10.9% | AGG: 57.1% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 80% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 3% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 104]
CO ($31.40) [VPIP: 23.2% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 468]
Dealt to Hero: K♣ A♦
HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Raises To $1.87, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.37
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.72 effective]
Flop ($4.09): 5♠ 4♣ 5♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2.04 (Rem. Stack: $21.36), HERO Calls $2.04 (Rem. Stack: $27.56)
Turn ($8.17): 5♠ 4♣ 5♥ Q♦
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $2.69 (Rem. Stack: $18.67), HERO Raises To $6.98 (Rem. Stack: $20.58), HJ Calls $4.29 (Rem. Stack: $14.38)
River ($22.13): 5♠ 4♣ 5♥ Q♦ 9♠
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $14.38 (allin), HERO Folds
Spoiler
HJ wins: $21.03
Played this spot and liked my sizings even though it didn't work out.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($15.42) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 35% | Hands: 39]
CO ($27.23) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 138]
BTN ($49.67) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 34.3% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 26.9% | River Agg: 77.8% | 3Bet: 2.3% | 4Bet: 25% | Hands: 138]
HERO ($24.40) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.1% | 3Bet: 10.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.9% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 139569]
Dealt to Hero: Q♦ Q♠
CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.62, HERO Raises To $2.91, BB Folds, BTN Calls $2.29
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.54 effective]
Flop ($6.07): 8♥ 5♦ A♠
HERO Bets $1.21 (Rem. Stack: $20.28), BTN Calls $1.21 (Rem. Stack: $45.55)
Turn ($8.49): 8♥ 5♦ A♠ J♦
HERO Bets $1.85 (Rem. Stack: $18.43), BTN Calls $1.85 (Rem. Stack: $43.70)
River ($12.19): 8♥ 5♦ A♠ J♦ 6♦
HERO Bets $1.05 (Rem. Stack: $17.38), BTN Raises To $4.62 (Rem. Stack: $39.08), HERO Folds
Spoiler
BTN wins: $13.58
Video on a similar spot/same formation here
Played this spot and liked my sizings even though it didn't work out.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($15.42) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 35% | Hands: 39]
CO ($27.23) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 138]
BTN ($49.67) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 34.3% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 26.9% | River Agg: 77.8% | 3Bet: 2.3% | 4Bet: 25% | Hands: 138]
HERO ($24.40)
Triple block great on this A high double bw boards since people don't bluff raise you enough, just curious whats your game plan if villain raises you on turn here and you have like AT? (like r50 or so), I always get lost in this line when i have top pair facing a raise not sure if we can hero fold it
Triple block great on this A high double bw boards since people don't bluff raise you enough, just curious whats your game plan if villain raises you on turn here and you have like AT? (like r50 or so), I always get lost in this line when i have top pair facing a raise not sure if we can hero fold it
Yeah we can fold vs a turn raise since Ace high boards are underbluffed. I'd still make a note on the guy but default to folding is good.
New video
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.77) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 41.1% | Hands: 1086]
SB ($32.49) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 20.7% | AGG: 32.3% | Hands: 144]
BB ($34.40) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 38.9% | Hands: 166]
UTG ($30.91) [VPIP: 23.5% | PFR: 19.9% | AGG: 39.1% | Hands: 1997]
HJ ($30.07) [VPIP: 27.2% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 116]
HERO ($31.21) [VPIP: 28.3% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 37.8% | Hands: 139808]
Dealt to Hero: A♦ K♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $2.50, BB Raises To $6.95, HERO Folds, SB Folds
Spoiler
BB wins: $5.55
GTO will always jam here but we should fold.
GTO has hands like AQo/AJs/KJs. Most of population doesn't have hands like this.
This is a more realistic range.
Any plans to play real stakes? You've been playing peanut stakes for a while now.
Interesting graph. For me as a rookie, it looks like you transferred a lot of the sd-winnings to the non-sd-winnings in the first half. The last few hands look way more consistent. Did you change anything or is this just pure variance?
Yeah good catch. More reg tables/bomb pot tables in 2nd half which means more fish play.
