Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
Because they are undocumented. People can't be illegal. Actions can be. People can be undocumented. We don't even call murderers illegals. Being in the country without proper documentation isn't even a crime. It's a civil infraction. The misuse of the term "illegal alien" or "illegal immigrant" is a gross attempt at othering.
So they're referred to as "undocumented migrants" in US legislation? Or as "Illegal aliens" as you mentioned?
The "woke" way of thinking is to call them undocumented, even though they came into the country illegally, just like it's "woke" to say "it's a mostly peaceful protest" even though there were flames shooting 100 feet into the air.
Lucio wants an enormous federal government, how else is his prison state supposed to work?
I guess because we live in a post fact / reality world, conservatives want to overlook the OVERWHELMING evidence that "illegal immigrants" commit significantly less crime than native born residents.
How do conservatives want to square up the loss of revenue shipping all these "bad illegals" is going to cost the economy? The Center for American Progress estimated that a policy of mass deportation could reduce the nation's GDP by 1.4% immediately and by 2.6% over time, resulting in a cumulative GDP loss of $4.7 trillion over a decade.
It makes zero rational sense to do. Zero.
I guess because we live in a post fact / reality world, conservatives want to overlook the OVERWHELMING evidence that "illegal immigrants" commit significantly less crime than native born residents.
How do conservatives want to square up the loss of revenue shipping all these "bad illegals" is going to cost the economy? The Center for American Progress estimated that a policy of mass deportation could reduce the nation's GDP by 1.4% immediately and by 2.6% over time, resulting in a cumulative GD
Where did i write that illegals commit more crimes than citizens, in the USA? that's clearly not the case at least from the statistics available, which aren't perfect but it's hard to think they have been manipulated so much as to make them false qualitatively.
For the EU it's completly different, but speaking of the USA it's uncontroversial that illegals commit less crimes than citizens.
Obviously the reason is that american citizens commit exceptionally more crimes than citizens of all other first world countries, not that illegals are particular lovers of law and order.
So i'd ask you to think about this. Imagine you are a girl with 10 brothers, 2 of which are serial killers. You get to know someone , who has 10 brothers as well, 2 of which are robbers.
You tell your friend you aren't comfortable dealing with that person because of the 2 robbers in the family, and you get answered that you are making the problem up because your brothers are worse.
Shouldn't you aim to meet people that simply don't have any criminal in the family?
Back to the country, why are you using the fact that american citizens are exceptionally propense to commit crimes to justify entrance of people who are still commiting an unacceptable amount of crimes, even if a lower one than your citizens?
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As for the economical effect, can you please use per capita GDP? ofc nominal gross GDP gets reduced by deportations lol.
But if nominal gross GDP was something valuable by itself (hint: it's not, that's not what correlates with quality of life, per capita GDP is) then you just annex all countries in the world and you gdp goes through the roof... see why it's completly absurd and bad faith to use gross nominal (or real) GDP and not per capita, when talking about the effect of deportations?
If illegals are more than 2.6% of the population and deporting them all decreases GDP by 2.6%, that means everyone else is better off lol. So if a super-pro-immigration think tank figures tell you that not-deported residents increase their per capita GDP (ie, their life objectively gets better) ... you should believe them.
Do you think it is better to ask me that or look it up in the documents you would like to know about? Are you asking me to do research for you to help make some point?
I feel more comfortable asking you, thanks. So are they? Referred to as undocumented or illegal? I'm thinking it has to be undocumented, seeing as you pointed out that people can't be illegal. Right?
The "woke" way of thinking is to call them undocumented, even though they came into the country illegally, just like it's "woke" to say "it's a mostly peaceful protect" even though there were flames shooting 100 feet into the air.
Btw it's not blood lust, because if it was indeed legal to go with your car through people who block traffic, people would stop blocking traffic and there would be no deaths related to those incidents.
Same with other displays of legal violence if allowed. If it was legal to (say) kill people on the spot if they throw soup at art in a museum, people would stop throwing soup at art in museums.
I'm sure what you wrote above is correct. After all, stand your ground laws have totally eliminated burglaries. 🙄
Where did i write that illegals commit more crimes than citizens, in the USA? that's clearly not the case at least from the statistics available, which aren't perfect but it's hard to think they have been manipulated so much as to make them false qualitatively.
For the EU it's completly different, but speaking of the USA it's uncontroversial that illegals commit less crimes than citizens.
Obviously the reason is that american citizens commit exceptionally more crimes than citizens of all other fir
I said conservatives... I didn't say YOU. No... it's 100% not controversial. It's as black and white on data as you can get. Find a legit source that says "illegal" immigrants cause more violent crime OR theft. It doesn't exist.
But since you're responding, thanks for explaining the obvious. Do you have some numbers that show an increase in American GDP per capita after mass deportations?
Oh, you don't? Hint: Those numbers are negative as well. You're free to google them before wasting a wall of text.
Well, again, thanks for the explanation.
I'm sure what you wrote above is correct. After all, stand your ground laws have totally eliminated burglaries. 🙄
Stand your ground doesn't guarantee the target will be armed, and capable of shooting at you.
People don't rob places with armed guards that are allowed to shoot them as much as they rob places without them though, do they?
And there aren't kidnappers for ransom anymore in italy, after ultra-draconians laws have been passed (and law enforcement signaled the will to enforce them).
All the assets of the extended family of a kidnapped person get frozen in Italy. Draconian, but it worked, so well that such an insane compression of rights never has to come to fruition, the threat itself changes the incentive structure of criminals enough.
So it's a right-violation norm on paper, that actually increases rights (you aren't kidnapped anymore).
This is just fake propaganda to make the "trumpers" look bad.
I said conservatives... I didn't say YOU.
But since you're responding, thanks for explaining the obvious. Do you have some numbers that show an increase in American GDP per capita after mass deportations?
Oh, you don't? Hint: Those numbers are negative as well. You're free to google them before wasting a wall of text.
Well, again, thanks for the explanation.
Yes, yours lol. You said GDP 2.6% lower structurally without illegals. Illegals are more than 2.6% of american residents.
I feel more comfortable asking you, thanks. So are they? Referred to as undocumented or illegal? I'm thinking it has to be undocumented, seeing as you pointed out that people can't be illegal. Right?
I think the proper legal expression most often used is "unauthorized alien".
"undocumented" is an absurd orwellian choice invented by the left, you can be an illegal even if you have a passport from another country.
And you can be an american citizen without having any government issued ID.
Yes, yours lol. You said GDP 2.6% lower structurally without illegals. Illegals are more than 2.6% of american residents.
I don't think I have the patience to explain why this isn't how you calculate this. I don't think you're interested in truth any ways, so it's pointless. I'm just going to post the numbers for those who are interested in operating in a fact based world.
A GDP reduction of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion would decrease GDP per capita by approximately $3,300 to $5,100.
I don't think I have the patience to explain why this isn't how you calculate this. I don't think you're interested in truth any ways, so it's pointless. I'm just going to post the numbers for those who are interested in operating in a fact based world.
A GDP reduction of $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion would decrease GDP per capita by approximately $3,300 to $5,100.
It was 4.7 trillions over a decade in your post before. The bold range is more than twice that. Are you inventing numbers now?
And btw yes, as i wrote is how it works. If you write that you see GDP 2.6% lower without illegals, then GDP per capita grows because illegals are more than 2.6% of the population
I said conservatives... I didn't say YOU. No... it's 100% not controversial. It's as black and white on data as you can get. Find a legit source that says "illegal" immigrants cause more violent crime OR theft. It doesn't exist.
But since you're responding, thanks for explaining the obvious. Do you have some numbers that show an increase in American GDP per capita after mass deportations?
Oh, you don't? Hint: Those numbers are negative
Who cares if they cause less crime than residents . Tell that to the families of folks with dead parents, daughters or sons raped or killed my illegal immigrants . The last stat released failed to include California and NY as they refused to give the numbers
That is like saying its only a small % of women have complications in pregnancies that need an abortion and die
Here is reality if you have zero illegal immigrants they commit zero crime
It was 4.7 trillions over a decade in your post before. The bold range is more than twice that. Are you inventing numbers now?
And btw yes, as i wrote is how it works. If you write that you see GDP 2.6% lower without illegals, then GDP per capita grows because illegals are more than 2.6% of the population
It's a loss range of 4.2 - 6.8 trillion over a decade. I put a moderate number in my first post. The last number I put is per year. You can do math, right?
Ya... that's not how it works, and if I thought you were interested in truth, I'd explain it.
Who cares if they cause less crime than residents . Tell that to the families of folks with dead parents, daughters or sons raped or killed my illegal immigrants . The last stat released failed to include California and NY as they refused to give the numbers
That is like saying its only a small % of women have complications in pregnancies that need an abortion and die
Here is reality if you have zero illegal immigrants they commit zero crime
OR... if you replace the entire population with "illegal immigrants" you have less total crime.
Maybe we should do that?
I thought the mentioning of expulsion was about the deportation of illegals. I don't have a model where citizens get expelled (but i have one where the death penalty is used a lot more)
So all your tirades about how exile is such a great thing and it worked so well back in the days , was just rethorical?
"undocumented" is an absurd orwellian choice invented by the left, you can be an illegal even if you have a passport from another country.
Which would be undocumented, since that is not appropriate documentation.
Unless you are an immigrant. That's why it's not just "undocumented," it's "undocumented immigrant."
jfc this isn't even hard.
It's a loss range of 4.2 - 6.8 trillion over a decade. I put a moderate number in my first post. The last number I put is per year. You can do math, right?
Ya... that's not how it works, and if I thought you were interested in truth, I'd explain it.
how does 1.1 -1.7 per year become 4.2-6.8 per decade? per decade is 10x per year (actually more than 10x if they account for baseline gdp growth, so a nominal increase in the "cost" of not having illegals)
