My Journey in PLO..

Really hammer preflop opens for later positions in solver, post stats are insufficient but looks like you should fold way more. I would much rather underdefend than overdefend if I were you. Open up your RFIs from CO+, fold more bb, fold more flops and save yourself the headache. I would remember the names of every reg that bluffed at an even remotely reasonable rate below PLO400 by name because they were so rare, win by folding when they show aggression and bluff them off all the small pots they ignore instead.

Can't stress going back to preflop enough when you're struggling, there is a comfort to knowing you play the first street at a very high level that makes playing as a whole much more enjoyable. You'll also notice that 95% of the regs are making grave errors all the time on the easiest street to master and feel better about yourself.

So my goal for week 1 has already changed, since i have a sub to mastermind someone in the discord shared a video where they compiled a dataset from some 6 million hands and analyzed the stats of regs vs crushers vs gto. Upon using that spreadsheet to input my own stats im starting to get a real picture of where my issues lie.

preflop:
3B - GTO 6.5%
Mine - 8.9% ( this is overall)
BU CC - GTO 20%
Mine - 15.4%

my overall 3b stat is way high right off the jump. ( im not going to post the stats from the spreadsheet as idk if theyre proprietary or not since they gathered the hands and compiled them) but i assume its ok to post the GTO numbers.

i did some range work BU v CO as i think this will cover alot of spots since there are more times i play short (2-4 players) and quickly found ( by pulling the results off screen and just making the choices that i would in game) that i 3b too many call hands,call with hands that should 3b/fold and fold some call hands aswell. Generally just put myself in tough spots postflop with bad preflop ranges. I also did some RFI from MP work and found the same result.

Seems that certain hand structures i value as "good" are not actually good, and ones i tend to pass on are actually good.
For Instance: ( I took notes from the MP RFI work i did)
i filtered for hands that range from -0.2 to 0.2 EV. sort of the "fringe" hands. i did 100 hands with an overall accuracy of 67% correct. i took note of every hand i got wrong and now ill put them here and the reason i took that line and why i think it was flawed ( know it was as the action is actually different lol) and see if by typing it out it sticks better in my mind.

KK94 ssK = open - i folded this bc i thought it falls under "bad Kings" but now i think having the 9 makes it an open as if we flop a straight on QJT, we actually block villains AK combos heavily which makes sense.

AK62 ssA = fold - i opened this with a suited Ace but its a fold. i think the 6 kills it as we can only have the nuts on QJT, on 345 we not thrilled and ss is probably bad too. AK52ssA is an open though.

QQ53 ssQ = fold - i thought semi-connected sidecards made this hand an open but i was wrong. only if ds or sidecards 8+ ( not dblpr)

KQT7r = fold - idk what i thinking here, ss or better.

JT85 ssJ = Fold - this is a hand i would always come in for an open but its apparently too weak to do so. i assume bc we have a weakish suit ( only J high) and not really solid connection its a fold. we get free rolled on Q9x vs KJTx which is heavy in cold calling ranges behind MP. ds this is an open as it gives up more opportunities to redraws but im starting to see the pattern. ( i also have trouble defending postflop and this is the reason why, hands like this, but thats another post incoming lol)

JTT8r - open - i folded this as its rainbow so thought it wasnt strong enough bc if i had to choose i would take JT85ss vs JTT8r for playability. I am wrong though and this was the first time i noticed my flawed logic, JTT8 can make more "top of range" hands with TT, it can play for stacks on T9x,QTx etc due to also holding blockers. JT85 cannot as it will almost always being drawing thin, dominated or getting freerolled.

J954ds - fold - i opened this hand which is a mistake as its a "two-way" hand. ( thats what i call them, idk if thats an accurate name) we dont have nuttiness with suits, pairs or straights.

i have 24 more hands to post but im going to post them later. i have some interesting postflop finds aswell for stats.

CB IP SRP - 47%
F v X/R - 30%
F v Turn Probe - 52%
Delayed Turn CB - 35%

This is where i stopped with the stats. i saw these and it was like a lightbulb, im not cb enough IP ( IP is OP in PLO, i should be playing extremely well in these spots and being VERY aggressive)
im not folding enough to x/r - which tells me im highly likely cb a merged range of strong hands and medium strong hands
im folding too often to turn probe - which confirms previous find of cbetting too many medium strong hands and having too much air in my check range.
im not delay cbetting enough - bc i bet all my medium/strong hands on flop and dont have many left to bet turn with.

overall findings:
my preflop range composition is weak ( JT85ss vs JTT8 example)
which makes my flop ranges weaker > which makes my decisions more difficult AND leaves me less opportunities to be aggressive.

Goal this week:
Drill preflop, MP RFI and BU v CO will be my go to.
Update daily with results ( like i did above with the hands, my decision and reasoning)

Next Week: explore SRP IP as PFR.

tyty

various stakes, these stats are mostly 200plo though.

do you have an example of a stack off spot? ive been thinking about this but i always have trouble ranging my opps so i revert to using monker ranges which then put me off PPT bc i have monker open lol

i started to notice this when i was filtering/looking through hands. dry ace is one bluff i always note. seems some NEVER use it, others always use it.

i agree about the preflop, my long post is basically me saying the same thing. my composition is off bc im valuing the wrong hand structures. which is putting me in tough spots post and just snowballs from there. i could likely fix my preflop ranges and not really even focus on postflop that much and turn my graph around but maybe thats too optimistic lol

Can just filter out for spots where you have 1-4 SPR on the flop, and put yourself in opponent's shoes and ask what is villain going to stack off with, use PPT to figure out equity and FE. You can look at the monker hands and ask do people actually stack off with X hands and etc...

I'm not here to be right about anything and not interested in getting into any arguments with anyone with regarding the merits of studying preflop. I don't think your 3b is too high and I think spending time drilling preflop is mostly for vanity and doesn't yield much EV. All the EV loss/gain from solver is assuming everyone plays GTO postflop which no one comes close to in PLO. The whole point of preflop solver ranges is so that you are going to be balanced on all run outs which no one is going to realize at much higher stakes than you would imagine. I can assure you no one is going to notice if you open JT85 instead of JTT8 or vice versa. Even if they notice can you figure out how you can be exploited?

That's not always true. A lot of equity realization is the ability to make a hand worth putting in money with. Without looking at solver right now, I'd imagine the ev of jt8 combinations goes way up as the 4th card gets closer to the other cards.

Now yes, the tt component has extra bluff equity that may have trouble being realized against certain classes of opponents. But the real issue with the jt85 is not whether your opponents notice you playing that but that the 5 significantly hurts your ability to make big hands.

update today:
did some range work from EP.
scoring in the upper 80% accuracy with EV filters as RFI.

range work from CO - 60% with EV filters. - trash...

range work EP v MP 3B - 61% - horrendous

how am i not down 100Bis? I am sooo bad at 4betting. no wonder my graph looks like that.
I see the post that i put all the hands in is a TLDR so im going to avoid that from now on lol

RFI from CO..

Unpaired > Single Suited ( Including TS) > Ace High

These hands are very tough for me to grasp the cutoff margins. like at what point does a hand become a fold vs RFI, if i keep at it im sure ill get it but right now im just getting frustrated.

the EP v MP 3B was rough too. kind of a rude awakening because im seeing the range composition live as it happens. Instead of when i play and only get an opportunity a few times a session to RFI from EP and get 3B from MP. When you drill a specific spot its like putting a magnifying glass on your game.

here is my bb/100, someone asked in discord so i figured id post here too. ( i cant post images for some reason? )

Pos - Hands - All/in Adj bb/100
SB - 8,849 - (-14.86)
BB - 8,932 - (-43.86)
EP - 3,154 - (24.01)
MP - 5,750 - (7.41)
CO - 7,160 - (-5.79)
BU - 8,270 - (10.06)

CO graph is wild. ive been playing more shorthanded/HU so i think CO is going to be focus for the rest of the week.

unforunately i dont know how to filter for SPR in HM3. Its not whether someone will "notice" or not, but playability wise, JT85 will put me in tougher spots than JTT8. I see that now and im starting to notice a pattern of certain hand structures i tend to "fold" that should be RFIs and structures i tend to RFI that should be folds. for instance.

QT86ss to 8 is a fold.
AK98r is a open, AK75ts to K is a open.

those i chose the opposite for all 3. QT86ss to 8 appears to have more playability but will almost never overflush someone, can be freerolled due to gap structure and 2 pair outs are dirty. 986,Q76 flops etc.

im not certain about this either, just guessing man lol. Trying to do my best to get better.

it does.

This too, JT85 looks like it would flop smoother than JTT8 but really the redraw capability of JTT8 is much higher than the JT85 plus having the broadway blocker gives us additional bluff equity that JT85 just doesnt have.

I assume, like i said in the other reply, im just guessing based on what im seeing in solver ranges and just trying to make sense of it hahah. im obviously no expert.

First off everything is fine. As a child we stop playing games like checkers because it is too simple. Therefore, enjoy the complex game of PLO and enjoy the journey. You have a lot of problems, but many are easily fixed over time. And start with preflop, your numbers are horrible from CO and BU which are actually the easiest positions to open raise and get everyone to fold and you win without a fight...rake free!!!...rake free unless you are a dumbass playing on GG Poker.

finally got the images to work.

here is allin on or before river.

This one is NOT all in on or before river AND did VPIP

now that im seeing both together it looks like someone hit the doom switch on me around 625 hands on top graph and 6800 hands on bottom graph. i think a whale would have more upswings than that lol its just vertical..down.

end of week update..

Overall Results:

Allin on River or Earlier:

Not Allin on River or Earlier AND VPIP:

my non-sd is still suffering. couple that with the fact that im not doing well in allins and the overall ( meaning the overall graph) i decided to step back until Jan. 1st. I cashed out my BR and will wait for the new year to start again. Going to still study, but going to focus on ensuring longevity.

I purchased Drivehud and will use that from now on. i see my std. dev for PLO is 161bb/100. Using this to expand,

1 standard deviation = 68% confidence.
2 standard deviations = 95% confidence.
3 standard deviations = 99.7% confidence.

what does this mean? i broke this down earlier and it really *really* changed my view on BR, what "winning" actually looks likes, everything. its most likely why i chose to take a break.

so, 161bb/100
if im 4 tabling thats about 235 hands per hour.
235/100 * 161 = + or - 378bbs per hour is 1 stdev. ( 68% of the time my results will fall here)
235/100 * 161 * 2 = + or - 756bbs per hour is 2 stdev. ( 95% of the time my results will fall here)
+ or - 1134 bbs per hour is 3 stdev. ( 99.7% of the time my results will fall here)

if i play 2- 4 hour sessions per week that means 68% of the time my weekly variance will be (-3078bbs and +3078bbs).

that also means 32% of the time, my swings will be bigger than 30 buyins!

really put things into perspective for me. Something ive always struggled with was BRM. Im going to really focus on my mental game for the next month, as well as reviewing my DB to find spots im leaking.

for instance, I shouldnt be losing/breaking even in noallin spots after vpip.

This weeks goal is find leaks in my postflop game and learn how to fix them. ill report back with spots i found, how i found them and why theyre leaks.

something interesting i just noticed, if i filter - did vpip=true i get this graph.

Does that mean im overfolding my blinds? i think it must be some sort of weird error or something, i mean for the graphs to be so different but i dont know.

vpip=False, saw flop =false

vpip=false, saw flop=true (limp pots)

also my stats:

the more "in position" i am, the less aggressive i become on the river. i also barrel turns and give up rivers. 49%flop cb, 56% turn cb, 49% river cb. it could be slightly skewed due to MP as im cbetting turn 60% and only betting river 34%. excluding MP, i cb turn 57% and river 53%. slightly better but not really.

i should also be defending my BB significantly more. Which seems crazy to me as i thought i was already overdefending combo wise. apparently way under is more like it! I wonder how much card distribution has to do with this?

my SB stats are within margin.
SB v BU
Fold to steal = optimal= 79% - mine = 80.9%
call vs steal = optimal=11% - mine = 8.5%
3b vs steal = optimal =8.6% - mine = 9.6%

BB are way out of wack.

i suspect thats a very large leak or the worst distributions ive ever seen. ( most likely a leak)

that is where i will start. Go through my HHs, filtered for hero=BB, does not vpip. take a look at my folding range and see what i come up with.

I notice your button RFI is only 41.5%, I would work on getting that up to GTO numbers and then you have a good basis for BB vs Button defend. The two are quite symmetrical, especially in low rake sims. It's mostly the pure steals from button that get folded when defending.

Are your stats filtered for effective stacks? If not that may be a quick fix to hopefully make them look better.

they are not, i will check that rn lol

*EDIT*
Found the problem.

A:"(K,Q,J,T):*(9,8,7):*(6,5,4,3,2)$np

im folding these wayyy too often. like AQ64(ss6), AQ95(ss9),AQJ7mono,AK84(ssK) etc. mostly in 2021 from what i can see. I was just learning PLO really, this year my stats are much closer.

EP - 17.8,MP - 19.9,CO - 27.6,BU - 55.1, SB - 57.9 for RFI from EP to SB. ( I dont limp in SB, i havent really explored that so i dont know the strat for it. i either raise/fold)

2024 graph.

It's simple tho. If the morons suck out u can't win....no one can. Gotta encourage the morons to stop chasing