NL2/5. Flop and turn decisions with AhQd
8 handed. This is 3rd hand after Villain posted blinds. Villain at Button is totally new to me. He is about 45, quiet, and bought in maximally 1000.
I have 380 as effective.
I open UTG to 20 with AhQd. Folded to Villain at BU who calls. Heads-up to flop.
Flop (40): AsQs3d
I check and he bets 45 and I check-raise to 170. He hesitates for seconds and calls.
Turn (380): 6s
With 190 left, I?
My questions are:
1. When Villain bets so much on flop, My read is that he has more flush draw and set of 3's or A3s. Is the read close enough?
2. What is the good amount to check/raise to counter his most flush draws semis?
3. On turn I guess I have to push all-in given the low SPR. No?
9 Replies
With a 1/2 psb remaining after starting the hand <100BB, I think this is a standard shove. Even if he has a flush or 33, you still have 4 outs.
I wouldn't make too much out of an an unknown rando's psb on the flop, other than he likes his hand, which could easily be any Ax to your presumed scared underpair.
Seems like a fairly straightforward jam on the turn.
Think I would have taken a bigger size with the flop x/r, to set up a trivial turn jam. Maybe $200.
Played fine, just shove now.
When an unknown bets at this sizing, you can’t rule out that they have a 1 pair hand they are trying to protect. If you are on the fence about your line, that should tip you towards getting it in.
jam turn. id rather just bet the flop, CR is just so strong and folds out everything drawing dead against you. i doubt you want to play vs a range of A3s, sets and strong draws.
All in. XR for value OTF is iffy, worked out this time, though.
I did Jam turn. BU showed 8s7s.
With my limited time at 2/5, I noticed is that most players don't bet that much with 33, even not with A3s on flop. Thus, we have to discount them to some extent.
My estimate is that BU's flop sizing is more draw heavy, and I questioned if I could have made worse odds than what I did for his draws, either check-raising flop more, or flatting and then betting on good turn cards.
My estimate is that BU's flop sizing is more draw heavy, and I questioned if I could have made worse odds than what I did for his draws, either check-raising flop more, or flatting and then betting on good turn cards.
I wouldn't think this way. We really want to bet the most that V's draws will call, if that happens to make it an unprofitable call, then great. We will win approximately 2/3 of the time here, whether he makes a profitable call or not.
I did Jam turn. BU showed 8s7s.
With my limited time at 2/5, I noticed is that most players don't bet that much with 33, even not with A3s on flop. Thus, we have to discount them to some extent.
My estimate is that BU's flop sizing is more draw heavy, and I questioned if I could have made worse odds than what I did for his draws, either check-raising flop more, or flatting and then betting on good turn cards.
You're right to think about his range the way you did. He'll have way more draws than worse 2P or bottom set. He could also have a lot of worse Ax that isn't folding flop, even if you x/r huge.
Starting out as shallow as you did, I could actually see just x/r-jamming flop to get value from his worse Ax. But definitely we want to raise bigger, to get max value before V gives up on his hand.
When you raise to $170, he's getting almost 2:1 on a call. With only $190 left behind, the implied odds are around 3.4:1. That's not quite good enough for his flop call to be profitable if you jam turn, but if you ever check the turn on a brick, the odds are more than good enough.
We want to raise the flop to a size that makes his call unprofitable no matter what you do. If you raise flop to $200, he has to call another $155 with only $160 left. At that size, it's close enough for him to 3B jam with his flush draws.
