NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

what a day of football

If aTm beats Texas next week, hilarity will ensue

Will it? Uga is playing winner of atm/texas

Edit. I suppose you mean for the playoffs… yeh…

Texas should win by three TDS. But it's college football-

Committee Guess:

1 Oregon
2 Ohio state
3 Texas
4 Penn state
5 Notre dame
6 Miami
7 Georgia
8 Tennessee
9 Smu
10 Indiana
11 Boise st
12 Clemson
13 Arizona state
14 Alabama
15 Ole miss
16 South Carolina
17 Iowa state
18 BYU
19 ATM
20 Missouri
21 Tulane
22 Colorado
23 UNLV
24 Illinois
25 K State?

???

Not sure they will move ASU up that much, but beating ranked BYU while Bama and Ole Miss each suffer their third loss of the season and second loss to a 5-loss team is worth a lot

And Clemson jumps the same amount for beating Citadel I guess?

Will Boise ever drop for barely beating crappy MWC teams by 1 score? They beat Nevada by 7 two weeks ago and just beat 2-9 Wyoming 17-13

How I would rank them:

1 Oregon
2 Ohio state
3 Texas
4 Georgia
5 Penn state
6 Miami
7 Smu
8 Indiana
9 Notre dame
10 Tennessee
11 Clemson
12 Arizona state
13 Alabama
14 Boise st
15 Ole miss
16 South Carolina
17 Iowa state
18 BYU
20 ATM
21 Tulane
22 Colorado
23 UNLV
24 Missouri
25 K State

If Kansas makes a bowl game we really need to see Kansas vs Florida in the Spoiler bowl

It seriously might be the worst call I've ever seen. The ref literally threw a flag for no reason. Never seen that in my life. And he negated an awesome td catch and he effectively closed the door on any chance of a Bama comeback. I also forgive Williams for that massive brainfart catch at the one on that punt. Dude was so rattled by that phantom call he wasn't ready to process reality yet.

The ref in the Bama game made the worst call of all time but it probably had little effect equity-wise. That ****ing phantom pick call against Auburn was definitely the worst high leverage call of the day. Total bs. Thank god they won anyways.

Perfect ending to a classic game.

If Penn State would've lost it would have greatest day ever vibes.

Arizona State has won 9 games? The team that eeked out a barnburner against Texas State? 6-5 "4th place in the SEC West" Texas State? That's great, that's really great!

Oregon
Tosu
Texas
Penn state
Notre Dame
Miami
Georgia
Indiana
Tennessee
Smu
Boise
Alabama
Clemson
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Arizona State

The rest

Just checking in on you fine fellows to see if you are up to anything new but judging from exhilarating posts like “CoLOLorado” I’m guessing not much

But you are your choking SEC teams sure ruined that bracket, that I can tell you. There were many sexy first round matchups set up in cold weather locales but y’all eliminated yourselves

All the best

Following teams are locked in:
Oregon
Ohio State
Penn State
B12 winner (Army/Tulane are not passing the b12 winner)
ACC winner (Miami or SMU, or if Miami < Cuse, then could be Clemson)
G5 winner
SEC winner, assume for now it's UGA

So that's 7 teams locked in, 5 spots left

Teams that obviously control their own destiny:
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Indiana
Texas (beat ATM, lose to UGA) or UGA (beat GT, lose to Texas) or ATM (beat Texas, beat UGA)

So that's 1 spot left

Then you could have another free spot if Indiana (2%) Tennessee (20%) or Notre Dame (?) (31%) loses, or if Texas > ATM, GT > UGA, Texas > UGA would give UGA four losses (2.5%)

So we have 1 slot free, and then we're a flip to have a second free spot (and about 6% to have three extras!)

The contenders:

- 11-2 Miami or SMU that wins their finale and then loses the ACCCG

- 10-2 Clemson that beats South Carolina

- 9-3 Alabama (beat UGA by 7, USCe by 2, LSU by 29, Mizzou by 34, @ Wisconsin by 32. One fine loss @ Tennessee by 7, and two bad losses, @ Vandy and @ OU by 21)

-9-3 Ole Miss (won @ USCe by 24, v UGA by 18. Three close losses, v UK, @ LSU and @ Florida by 3, 3, 7)

-9-3 South Carolina (win @ Clemson and v ATM by 24, two close losses v LSU and @ Bama by 3 and 2, one loss to Ole Miss by 24

South Carolina is playing great right now, and a win over Clemson would be 6 in a row for them, but I don't see how they can send 9-3 USCe over 9-3 Ole Miss AND 9-3 Bama who both beat them.

If the gap is created by an SEC team falling out (Tennessee < Vandy or UGA losing to GT then Texas), it would be pretty wild to have 3 ACC teams and 2 SEC teams in there. My guess if that happens, they bump Alabama or Ole Miss in and only one additional ACC team

I don't see how USCe gets in. Especially since Ole Miss and Bama both beat Georgia, who absolutely dump trucked Clemson in the opener.

The other open question is whether they'd even drop Notre Dame out if they lose @ USC. Everybody seems to be glossing over the fact that they lost to NORTHERN ILLINOIS, and haven't really beaten a good team all year. Give me Bama all day over 10-2 Notre Dame imo

ACC

I have Miami 45% to win the ACC (77% * 60%)
SMU 40% to win the ACC
Clemson 14% to win the ACC (23% Miami loses * 60% to beat SMU)

Vegas has Miami 71% to go, SMU 60% and Clemson 25%

So that's 16% Miami gets at-large. I have them 31% to beat Cuse, lose to SMU. So that means 52% to get the at large bid in that scenario

19% SMU gets an at-large. I have them 49% to beat Cal then lose to Miami/Clemson, so that means 39% to get the at large bid in that scenario

Clemson is 11% to get an at large. They are 43% to beat USCe but be left out of the ACCCG. So they'd be 25% in that scenario

B12 no chance of at large, imo no chance of being left out
Vegas has:
41% ASU
28% ISU
22% BYU
13% Col

I get the following matchup probabilities:
ISU/ASU: 43%
ASU/BYU: 25%
ISU/BYU: 12%
BYU/CU: 8%
ASU/CU: 8%
ISU/CU: 3%

And so I get:
39% ASU
31% ISU
18% BYU
10% CU

ATM is pretty convenient to deal with - they are 33% to beat Texas, and if they win they are 9-3 but they're forced to play the SECCG and they are either an auto bid with a win or they are out at 9-4

I've bet a lot of South Carolina not making it and some on Ole miss not making it and notre dame making it regardless.

Clemson vs bama is the most interesting. I think it should be bama to be honest but not sure it will be.

Also seems like we could get the big 12 champion left out for Tulane like a few percent of the time.

I'm still not convinced the committee won't leave out 10-3 Georgia for bama either.

The P4 champs are automatically in regardless of record.

It's really hard because Tulane lost at home to K-State and hasn't beaten a single team with a pulse. I suppose if Tulane nukes Memphis then nukes Army (totally plausible)

If 3 of the four 6-2 teams lose, we'll get a 3 (or maybe 4 in Colorado's case) loss team in the B12 title game, and then if that team wins they could get jumped, but I doubt it for the 3-loss teams. 4-loss Colorado could get jumped though

If ND hasn't beaten a good team all year then neither has most of the others.

No, the actual wording is:

Everyone (including me) assumed this would mean the P4 champs would get the bye and one G5 entrant would be the sacrificial 12th seed to get murdered by an Ohio State or something. But actually, if Boise and Tulane end up ranked higher than B12 champion Baylor (a team the books are telling me is still technically live and I suspect hasn't been ranked by the committee or anyone else all year), say, then B12 is SOL.

Now that the B12 has lost its stars and filled in with Pac12 also-rans (No offense, Utah) and a few AAC schools, we at least have some outs in their down years.

As far as I'm concerned you've been doing god's work of finally getting people to stop lauding the service academies by bludgeoning them to death like a true American hero!

But...USC will be your third road game and first in 11 weeks? That's weird but nice, I guess.

Am I understanding USC correctly; they changed to a worse quarterback due to some 1 score losses on the road?