Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
Utter nonsense. Masks work when worn correctly. No one advises you not to use them unless you are a trained professional because it takes 1 second to learn to use a mask properly. There is no circumstance where wearing a mask increases health risks. Stop spreading ignorance.
Now you are just making up lies. Are you doing that on purpose? Is it done because you are not very bright or intellectually dishonest? Or, as others have suggested, both?
It was in WHO and CDC guidelines pre COVID.
Just the risk of wrongful disposal of PPE made them write guidelines that told ppl not to wear them unless they were trained professionals.
And if you ****ing touch your Mask it's a health risk FOR YOU.
And don't make me start about people with a beard wearing masks which is IMPOSSIBLE to do correctly, yet you guys never said that in public post COVID (even if guidelines for surgery rooms clearly indicated that having a beard was incompatible with wearing masks properly).
It was in WHO and CDC guidelines pre COVID.
Just the risk of wrongful disposal of PPE made them write guidelines that told ppl not to wear them unless they were trained professionals.
And if you ****ing touch your Mask it's a health risk FOR YOU.
And don't make me start about people with a beard wearing masks which is IMPOSSIBLE to do correctly, yet you guys never said that in public post COVID (even if guidelines for surgery rooms clearly indicated that having a beard was incompatible with wearing
You're simply lying again. Masks are not recommended as PPE. And the virus is spread extremely poorly through fomite transmission. Beards do not make wearing a mask impossible to do correctly. That's just incredibly ignorant. It reduces the effectiveness, sure, but not enough to make it uesless. It's incredible how effing dumb you are. You're demonstrably wrong about literally EVERYTHING YOU SAY on this subject.
2 party system has this problem.
Multi party system has other problems. That nothing gets done unless there is a clear majority, which often won't happen.
I am on the team that prefers nothing to be done so I don't hate multi party systems.
But it's important to remind why they aren't always superior.
If you want a chance to get rapid change with a simple majority you can't get it in multiparty systems.
Like the left tried to legalize homosexual marriages in Italy, a small portion of the center left
Yes.
An argument for the 2 party system is also that this great diversity of interests and preferences are funneled into compromises before they get to the legislature. So, as you say, stuff gets done and that's partly because much of the debate is already resolved.
I think both systems have merit but what we are seeing now is the fatal flaw of the 2 party system. Once both parties are completely bought off, there is no alternative. The mechanisms for reform are controlled by the parties themselves, so reform becomes almost impossible.
American faith in our political system is at historic lows:
Some of those numbers are striking. 63% say all or most politicians run for office just to make a lot of money for themselves.
If there were viable Libertarian and Green parties, they might gain ground, punishing Republicans and Democrats. But that isn't really possible.
It's pretty much inevitable when people vote least worse rather than for what we want
However 2 party does allow radical reform. Wete seeing a lot of radical reform. No shortage of it. Its just bad radical reform because the right aren't clever enough to realise it's impossible.
They proved it in real life, seatbelts I like mask, of you click them in even if you sit wrong, or move them around you and so on, like normal people do, still help.
Masks don't and to be clear, it's very probable masks are actually bad (one they increase health risks) when normal peoe use them.
Which is why the normal counsel was not to use one unless you were a trained professional
Wearing seat belt wrongly can cause Serious injuries as well ….
There is no distinction.
And they still make seatbelt mandatory anyhow .
I remember they cancelled that off the telly over my way after Colombine. I was kidna miffed at the time but then saw it later and didn't find it that great anyway.
Christopher Walken, tho.
And, I mean, Andy Garcia and Steve Buscemi weren't bad either. But, I mean, come one, the man with the plan.
It's pretty much inevitable when people vote least worse rather than for what we want
However 2 party does allow radical reform. Wete seeing a lot of radical reform. No shortage of it. Its just bad radical reform because the right aren't clever enough to realise it's impossible.
Yeah, there can be a massive populist movement that just overwhelms the parties, which was Trump and almost Bernie. Most of us agree Trump is a charlatan. But in principle, he is a Teddy Roosevelt type.
In some alternate universe where Trump really wanted to root out corruption, stand up to TNCs and so forth, it would be interesting to see how much progress he could really make. There would be a lot of resistance from within his own party.
He is one part of the democratic world moving radically to the right.
Ira not the system that is stopping the left do it. Its our willingness to vote for not doing it.
Yes. You are simply wrong that non random data should somehow be assumed to converge to population means regardless.
I think we should put homeslice in a room and give him a quadratic with no rational roots to solve as a little test. He keeps shiting on about stuff, and I have a feeling when left to his own devices, without the assistance of Alexa or Siri or whatever, he would struggle to find his ass from his elbow with grade 8 algebra.
It's classic Dunning-Kruger. He has no idea what he doesn't understand.
Trump supporters that could pass jr high math are not that easy to find.
You want to give me odds on how many posters ITF could derive the quadratic formula by themselves, by completing the square (or by any other means)? I would put the under at 5. You, uke, WillD, me, who else?
I would actually be amazed if Sklansky could, or if he even knew what "completing the square was". I give him 10%.
it's that problem with priors and conclusions again
Yes.
An argument for the 2 party system is also that this great diversity of interests and preferences are funneled into compromises before they get to the legislature. So, as you say, stuff gets done and that's partly because much of the debate is already resolved.
I think both systems have merit but what we are seeing now is the fatal flaw of the 2 party system. Once both parties are completely bought off, there is no alternative. The mechanisms for reform are controlled by the parties themsel
There is an alternative within the american 2 party system which is primaries.
Even if you dislike the outcome, you can't deny the "tea party" primary season(s) had a big impact.
To a lower extent the "squad" got a foothold in Congress in a similar way.
Primaries aren't controlled especially at the congressional level. Yes I can see that Bernie might have been scammed in the 2016 primaries, but even if that happened it was only because he had a small majority (possibly) and they could scam it out of it
damn, it doesn't sound really stupid now.
Why you guys act like knowing some math is the pinnacle of human achievement is beyond me.
I dont think 5 people in this thread could start a model t woth a manual crank in under a minute.
