2024 NFL Regular Season: g-bebe’s Lamar attempts to slay Dom’s Josh for title of mafia boss

Guessing he's factoring in that Cousins has aged 30 days since they last beat the Bucs.

Week 12

1 - DET
2 - BUF
3 - PHI
4 - BAL
5 - KC
6 - MIN
7 - GB
8 - PIT

29 - CAR
30 - JAC
31 - NYG
32 - LV

Ligastar pretty much sums it up. Bucs schedule has been drastically harder than Falcons. They have wins against Lions, Commanders and Eagles (yes, Falcons beat Eagles too but just narrowly, Bucs stomped them) which in retrospect is pretty damn good. Of course these games were all 2 months ago and teams are different now, but the Bucs are competitive. When at their worst the Falcons don't show up.

Both wins for Falcons over Bucs were tight 1 score games. Anything could happen there really. But their resumes to date are not quite the same.

I have Niners as best NFCW team, at least I'm consistent.

Mike McCarthy might be extended. Hahahahaha. Where's the LOL Cowboys thread?

I saw that coming as soon as I realized Jerry would be able to fully embrace the "not his fault" angle with all the injuries. Only fair to give him at least as long a leash as Garrett!

Jerruh only wants yes-men.
Fat Mike seems to fill the bill.

But yay for all of us. Except mark, cokeboy, and cold. Sorry, guys.

The McCarthy talk is just Dementia Jerry rambling on a local radio show. The same show he lost his mind on earlier in the year. Nothing's happening til after the season.

It's all hypothetical and then Dementia Jerry actually makes decision.

I saw this headline too, but I looked it up. It sounds like the company ******* is bringing Mike on as a spokesman and as a marketing ploy they are promoting the idea that "mike is about to get an extension".

EDIT: Why the hell is the male enhancement company that sounds like the first 1/2 of the word extension censored? It ruined my damn joke.

I have no doubt they're more likely than not to give him another contract at the end of the end of the year. Just the latest hype is bs.

Which is much more stable than the baby that owns the jets

If I had to guess it was because at some point someone was spamming it with a link so an admin censored the word.

13-0: That's the Chiefs' record in their past 13 one-score games. It is tied for the best streak in NFL history, per the Elias Sports Bureau.

the Chiefs are converting 52.7% of their third downs, the third-best season this century

When cornerback Jaylen Watson was healthy, the Chiefs were surrendering minus-0.05 EPA per dropback; since he went down after Week 7 with a leg injury, that number has leapt to 0.20. That's a huge change. Opposing quarterbacks are picking on backup cornerback Nazeeh Johnson, who is allowing 0.10 EPA per target (Watson was at minus-0.31).

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The three fourth-down conversions tied for the Ravens' most in a single game in team history, per ESPN Research.

Put a feather in the cap of John Harbaugh and the Ravens' analytics department, long lauded as one of the best in football. They made the right calls on Monday, and the Ravens won a critical road game.

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21.7%: That's the pressure rate of Dolphins rookie Chop Robinson since their Week 6 bye. Only Danielle Hunter's rate is better during that time frame.

This season, Robinson has an average get-off speed of 0.78 seconds -- much faster than the league average of 0.94 seconds -- and 19 quick pressures, which is tied with Chris Jones for the eighth most in the NFL.

Great post.

This is the kind of stuff we need more of in the NFL thread.

I can’t be the only one who is..

Yep and Jordan Love is one of the worst QBs when pressured which gives me some hope for Thursday.

it really can't be overlooked how important those correct GO 4th down decisions were to BAL ultimately winning that key AFC tilt vs LAC

that first decision to go from their own 16 yd line was a clear GO worth an increase in win probability of 3.4%. as posters on a poker site most of us realize just how significant that is. if you pass up obvious GOs like this one you are literally making it much more likely you will lose the game

it's been fun watching Chop in the limited snaps i've been able to see of him. such a great feeling to know your club landed a young, promising difference maker along the DL in the draft

the bungles keep on swinging and missing

frustrating

Their first game TB was about 95% WE but gave it away.

I doubt a majority of observers would rate ATL over TB neutral site. Betting line would be TB -2/-2.5.

Another metric would be who playoff teams would rather face. ATL is the obvious choice.

Perception is guided somewhat by pre season projections, in which ATL was the strong divisional favorite.

they still are 1.33 to Tampa's 3.10. not surprisingly given they're a win ahead + tie breakers but Tampa have the 3rd easiest schedule remaining and Falcons have lost their last two

My NFC odds:

-PHI +225
-DET +250
-MIN +1400
-GB +1600
-AZ +1600
-SEA +2000
-SF +2200
-TB +2500
-ATL +3000
-LAR +3000
-WAS +3500

I don't see any serious threats to the top 2, but if TB gets in it might get interesting.

I got PHI favored over DET primarily because of the limitations of Goff. He has reverted after some serious run good performances. DET still has 4 challenging matchups (GB, BUF, SF, MIN) while PHI has 3 (BAL, PIT, WAS), so I see first round bye still up in the air. Market has DET in +100-120 range which IMO overvalues their defense, bye chances, HFA, and Goff.

At Pinnacle to win NFCS ATL is -200 while TB is +165. So TB has about 35% div chp equity.

I realise you have no choice but I won’t converse in American betting language which seems to be really quite silly

But35% is approx = to 3.10 which I think = 32% ish

+164 = 2.64

-200 = 1.5

Divisional odds have about 10% hold, so 1/2.64/1.1 = 0.344 = 34.4%.