NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
As far as I'm concerned you've been doing god's work of finally getting people to stop lauding the service academies by bludgeoning them to death like a true American hero!
But...USC will be your third road game and first in 11 weeks? That's weird but nice, I guess.
Am I understanding USC correctly; they changed to a worse quarterback due to some 1 score losses on the road?
Well, 4th road game but congrats on understanding the "Shamrock Series." We played a 'home game' against Army at Yankee Stadium which is about 60 miles from West Point. You could argue that for two road games we played in nearby NFL stadia and not on their campuses*
@GaTech at the Falcons stadium (2 miles from Tech) instead of Bobby Dodd.
@Navy in the Meadowlands (200 miles from Annapolis) ND never plays at the USNA.
So yes we only played against two true home teams.
The other Trojan qb was leaking turnovers.
*why not campi
Fully expecting this from Notre Dame
It's not Notre Dame's fault that their schedule is dogshit. They genuinely tried to schedule a decent schedule, and it just completely fell apart
But, their schedule is dogshit.
let's compare their schedule with Alabama.
Alabama and ND combined to play 24 games.
Here are the 12 toughest:
BAMA tennessee
BAMA georgia
ND texasa&m
ND usc
BAMA scarolina
BAMA lsu
BAMA oklahoma
ND louisville
BAMA vanderbilt
BAMA auburn
BAMA wisconsin
BAMA missouri
here are the 12 easiest:
ND army
ND gatech
ND navy
BAMA wku
ND miamioh
ND virginia
ND niu
ND floridast
BAMA usf
ND purdue
ND stanford
BAMA mercer
Notre Dame played EIGHT GAMES against teams that a top-10 team would be a 25+ point favorite against. EIGHT!
For comparison, do you know how many Colorado, who plays in the weakest P4 conference played?
They played none. NONE!
Colorado played 12 out of 12 games against teams with a pulse. They had to show up and play every weekend. Lose focus, and you lose. Play like ****, and you lose.
Notre Dame essentially had EIGHT bye weeks (plus their actual bye week). And it's not like the other 4 games were murderer's row either. They didn't face a single top-10 team.
It's not that hard to get up to play Louisville and Army when you can sleepwalk through 8 of your other games. Oh, by the way they ****ING LOST ONE OF THOSE GAMES! TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS!
Again, it's not their fault! And they beat a lot of those teams pretty soundly! If they beat USC, they should be in the playoffs. But if they lose, it would be a travesty to include them over 3-loss Alabama or 2-loss Clemson. (Clemson had only 4 such 25+ favorite games)
gjge Mack
don't let the door hit you on your way out
I love how the reports last week were that he was planning to return for 2024. All it took was a BC ass kicking for the nail in the coffin.
The team is either going to play inspired and take out state this weekend or be demolished. I haven't decided which way it'll go.
Well, 4th road game but congrats on understanding the "Shamrock Series." We played a 'home game' against Army at Yankee Stadium which is about 60 miles from West Point. You could argue that for two road games we played in nearby NFL stadia and not on their campuses*
@GaTech at the Falcons stadium (2 miles from Tech) instead of Bobby Dodd.
@Navy in the Meadowlands (200 miles from Annapolis) ND never plays at the USNA.
So yes we only played against two true home teams.
The other Trojan qb w
I suppose it's relative; other qb had 18-9 with really 2 bad pick games. I watched Jake Garcia put up 8-12 with all bad-pick games (including the fbs one). You may wonder if that's not unusual in the AAC, but it really is.
It's just I watched Miller Moss and he scared me. This new guy not at all.
I'm cool with campi
Notre Dame played EIGHT GAMES against teams that a top-10 team would be a 25+ point favorite against. EIGHT!
For comparison, do you know how many Colorado, who plays in the weakest P4 conference played?
They played none. NONE!
Colorado played 12 out of 12 games against teams with a pulse. They had to show up and play every weekend. Lose focus, and you lose. Play like ****, and you lose.
Notre Dame essentially had EIGHT bye weeks (plus their actual bye week). And it's not like the other 4 games were
Two bye weeks, like pretty much everyone this year. I'll grant FSU should have been a top ten game and Louisville is underappreciated due to their jekyll and hyde nature.
I love how the reports last week were that he was planning to return for 2024. All it took was a BC ass kicking for the nail in the coffin.
The team is either going to play inspired and take out state this weekend or be demolished. I haven't decided which way it'll go.
This year teams have mostly covered week 1 after a coaching change but it's been in G5. Nobody else actually had their fired coach still be there for the next game either.
My lean is more that it's creepy and weird than inspirational.
Maybe, but Mack is well liked and respected.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if the players give it their all for his final game, especially against a rival.
It was just time for a football change.
Notre Dame played EIGHT GAMES against teams that a top-10 team would be a 25+ point favorite against. EIGHT!
For comparison, do you know how many Colorado, who plays in the weakest P4 conference played?
They played none. NONE!
Colorado played 12 out of 12 games against teams with a pulse. They had to show up and play every weekend. Lose focus, and you lose. Play like ****, and you lose.
Notre Dame essentially had EIGHT bye weeks (plus their actual bye week). And it's not like the other 4 games were
Okay but you have moved from
The other open question is whether they'd even drop Notre Dame out if they lose @ USC. Everybody seems to be glossing over the fact that they lost to NORTHERN ILLINOIS, and haven't really beaten a good team all year. Give me Bama all day over 10-2 Notre Dame imo
to a more comprehensive take of the entire schedule analyzing the bottom barrel teams. Colley gives ND 5 top 50 wins to Bama's 4, but we know Bama's schedule is likely tougher.
The list of Beaten a good team I'll grant includes the love triangle of Bama/UGA/Tenn. Oregon/anOSU too.
But after that, I am not sure who beat a good team. If ND does not have a good win among @A&M/UL/Army then I don't see that Texas/IU/PSU/SMU have beaten a good team either.
Yes, sorry that is fair. ND's schedule is ass, but not because they haven't beaten a good team - they've beaten 1 good team (on the road) which is basically par for the course - but becuase of how many absolutely terrible teams they played.
Their top 4 wins (including USC) are in the same ballpark as Texas/IU/PSU/SMU. the problem is after that they basically have 8 high school teams (and LOST to one of them) while those guys have a whole host of Arkasnas and Michigan State and Washington and Pitt type teams that are aren't great wins but at least have a pulse
Again, I don't blame ND for this! They tried!
Clemson in a good spot. Do they get in over 2 loss Miami. I think they do.
why in the blue **** is tulane ranked ahead of iowa state?
A and B are both 9-2
A is 6-2 vs top 60, B is 1-2
A has two top-40 wins, B has none
A has played 2 teams rated 80th or worse, B has played *7*
A is ranked 20 in S&P and 18 in Sagarin
B is ranked 27 in S&P and 22 in Sagarin
Guess which one the committee ranked higher??
A and B are both 9-2
A is 6-2 vs top 60, B is 1-2
A has two top-40 wins, B has none
A has played 2 teams rated 80th or worse, B has played *7*
A is ranked 20 in S&P and 18 in Sagarin
B is ranked 27 in S&P and 22 in Sagarin
Guess which one the committee ranked higher??
The answer is always the same: Notre Dame.
Spoiler
Yeah, I know neither of these teams are Notre Dame. Doesn't matter.
Theory; Tulane has risen far above preseason expectations whereas Iowas State has "stood still" being around where they were expected.
Comparing SP+ to his final Preseason list, Tulane has gone from -0.8 (65th) to +10.7, Iowa State 11.5 (30th) to 12.3.
*Head coach had left and taken good players with him.
*Star qb had left and new one was unknown (wound up being a freshman who excelled).
*New head coach from the Sunbelt and brought "Sunbelt players" with him.
It was thought to be a down year. I, for one, thought they were getting too much credit in those preseason rankings. Everything has come up sunshine for them including Indiana *also* demonstrating Sunbelt players can be good. Only losses were in early September.
Iowa State; yawn, 19 returning starters, good (not great) again. Two losses in early November.
I forget what the cognitive bias is called. "Shiny new object", "Trajectory bias", something like that but not just recency bias. Just a theory.
I mean, it's just recency bias
ISU is better and has a far superior resume by every possible metric, but Tulane has won 8 in a row while ISU has lost 2 of four.
It doesn't really matter, if ISU loses to KSU they will (and should) be rated lower, and if ISU beats KSU they will jump Tulane (if they don't, holy **** that would be insane)
Tulane / Memphis game tomorrow is pretty huge:
if Tulane beats Memphis, they host Army. If they win both, then they are probably still behind Boise and still ahead of UNLV for the G5 spot.
Boise is rooting for Memphis, as that would mean they'd still get the G5 spot even if they lose to Oregon State at home then beat UNLV
UNLV is very much rooting for Memphis. If UNLV beats Nevada, they'd be playing Boise for a chance at the playoffs if Memphis (or Army) can beat Tulane
The Big-12 is also rooting for Memphis
There are 4 Big-12 teams with two losses, none of whom are playing each other:
Colorado -16.5 vs Oklahoma St
BYU -13 vs Houston
ASU -8.5 @ Arizona
ISU -2.5 vs K-State
If 2+ of those teams win, then the B-12 is guaranteed to have an 11-2 Champion who will 100% be ahead of Tulane
If 3 of those teams lose, then the B-12 is guaranteed to have a 3+ loss team playing a 2 loss team in the chip. If the 3-loss team wins, could they fall behind Tulane?
If all 4 of those teams lose, then the B12 is guaranteed to have a 3+ loss champion, could they fall behind Tulane?
FRIDAY GAMES
NOON
Navy 2.5
East Carolina -2.5
Oregon State 19.5
Boise State -18.5
Outlined above. Boise is locked in to the MWC championship, but a loss here might give Tulane pole position for the G5 playoff spot, and would cost Boise a chance at the 4 seed as well
Oklahoma State 16.5
Colorado -16.5
CU needs to win to stay alive. They advance if 2/3 of BYU/ASU/ISU lose or if BYU loses and they win some tiebreakers
Ball State 16.5
Ohio -14.5
If Ohio wins, they're in the MAC title game. If they lose, they're likely out
Miami (OH) 2.5
Bowling Green -2
A genuine MAC semifinal. Winner is in the title game, loser is almost certianly out
Minnesota 2.5
Wisconsin -1.5
3:30
Utah State 6.5
Colorado State -6
Mississippi State 26.5
Mississippi -26
Texas State PK
South Alabama PK
Liberty -2.5
Sam Houston 3.5
If Liberty wins, they're in the CUSA title game. if SHSU wins, they're in if Jax St > WKU
Stanford 2.5
San Jose State -2.5
7PM
Georgia Tech 19.5
Georgia -19.5
GT has a chance to complete a really good season, 8-4 with two wins over top-10 teams. Georgia is locked in to the SECCG no matter what. I believe they are in the playoffs even if they lose, but only if they win here. If they lose here then lose the SECCG, they would be out at 9-4
Nebraska 4
Iowa -4
Utah 9.5
Central Florida -9
SATURDAY GAMES
NOON
UTSA 7
Army -6.5
Army is still technically live for the G5 bid. They need to hold serve here and beat Tulane in the title game, and then hope that either Boise or UNLV drops their finale and then wins the MWC (or that UNLV's loss allows CSU to slide in and win)
North Texas -11
Temple 11.5
Louisville -4
Kentucky 4
I can't help but think this game is incredibly important for Miami, SMU and Clemson. The ACC is 2-5 against the SEC this year, with four more games this weekend. GT and FSU are big dogs while Louisville and Clemson are small favorites. In order to get an at-large berth, Louisville (Miami and SMU's biggest win, Clemson's lone ACC loss) scoring a blow for the conference and getting to 8-4 and ranked just might be the tiebreaker.
South Carolina 2.5
Clemson -2.5
So much on the line here. Clemson is currently the bubble team, while USCe is behind two teams that it lost to (Bama and South Carolina). A win here probably seals at least a second ACC team in the playoffs (either Clemson or the SMU/Miami loser). A loss gets Clemson out of the way and clears the path for a potential SEC team to either be the first in line, or to jump the ACCCG loser. And that team might be South Carolina if the win is convincing enough!
Tennessee -10.5
Vanderbilt 11
Tennessee wins and they're in. They lose and they're out and... they might narrow the field to TWO SEC teams? Unthinkable!
Louisiana-Lafayette -9.5
Louisiana-Monroe 9.5
ULL wins and they're in the SBCCG. If they lose, USA wins and Ark St loses, USA goes. Ark St wins and USA loses, ULL goes. Ark St and USA both win, and it's a 3 way tie!
West Virginia 3.5
Texas Tech -2.5
Kansas -2
Baylor 2
Kansas is currently rated as a top-25 team by most predictive metrics despite being 5-6. They became the first 2-6 (or worse) team to win three consecutive games against ranked teams. Baylor has won 5 in a row.
Duke -4
Wake Forest 4
Illinois -7.5
Northwestern 7.5
Michigan 21
Ohio State -20
THE GAME. A win here makes Michigan's season. They won the natty last year, they've got Bryce Underwood on the way to solve their QB woes. 7-5 in a rebuilding year with a win over OSU is just fine. A loss would drop OSU out of the B1G CG, and probably cause fans to burn down Ryan Day's house. OSU wins, and they're a modest favorite to beat Oregon and get the 1 seed. (Though I actually think the 5 seed > 1 seed this year)
UConn -10
Massachusetts 10.5
Eastern Michigan 7
Western Michigan -6.5
South Florida -5
Rice 5.5
Coastal Carolina 1
Georgia State 1.5
Southern Miss 17.5
Troy -17
Middle Tenn. St 9
Florida International -8.5
Old Dominion -4
Arkansas State 4.5
3:30 TIMESLOT
Pittsburgh 5
Boston College -5
UAB 2.5
UNC Charlotte -2.5
Florida Atlantic -1.5
Tulsa 1.5
Fresno State 9
UCLA -9
Auburn 11.5
Alabama -11.5
THE IRON BOWL. Auburn has played well all year and lost an excruciating number of close games. They finally broke through in 4OT against ATM last week. Can they keep the momentum going and secure a bowl bid? Alabama is still +200 to playoff despite seeming to need two losses in front of them. The fans are already marching with pitchforks, but a loss to Auburn would send them into orbit. Ole Miss and South Carolina are also very invested in Auburn pulling the upset.
Arkansas 3.5
Missouri -3
Bama and South Carolina are both hoping for Missouri to hold serve and stay ranked here
Arizona State -8.5
Arizona 9
ASU wins and they're 99% in (there's a 1% chance they lose a crazy tiebreak if BYU loses). What a fantastic job Kenny Dillingham has done in Tempe.
Central Michigan 12.5
Northern Illinois -12.5
California 13.5
SMU -13.5
SMU is already locked in to the ACCCG. If they win here, they have an extremely good chance of staying in the field even with a loss, if they lose that obviously evaporates. Cal has had an extremely frustrating season, but finally can feel good after coming back to beat Stanford for the fourth year in a row in The Big Game.
Miami -10.5
Syracuse 10.5
Absolutely everything on the line for Miami. If they win, they lock up a spot in the ACCCG and likely also lock up a spot in the playoffs regardless. If they lose, they're dead.
North Carolina State 3.5
North Carolina -3.5
Mack Brown's last rodeo
Maryland 25
Penn State -25
It's hard to imagine PSU dropping from 4th all the way to out of the field. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly possible, especially if Clemson and/or Alabama wins decisively.
Rutgers 2
Michigan State -1.5
Notre Dame -7.5
USC 7.5
If ND wins, they're in and probably hosting a playoff game. If they lose, hoooo boy, it's gonna get spicy.
Jacksonville State 1.5
Western Kentucky -1.5
Jax State is locked in to the CUSA title game and also to hosting. If WKU wins and Liberty loses, they're in.
Kennesaw State 12.5
Louisiana Tech -12
UTEP 3
New Mexico State -2.5
Appalachian State 2.5
Georgia Southern -2.5
7PM
TCU -3.5
Cincinnati 3.5
Wyoming 17.5
Washington State -17
Florida -14.5
Florida State 15
Oklahoma 6
LSU -5.5
Lotta smoke around Brian Kelly these days. Can they win and calm the critics? Or will OU be able to build off of their demolition of Bama last week?
Purdue 29
Indiana -29
The Spoilermakers have the ultimate spoilermaking opportunity. ACC and SEC fans everywhere will be rooting for them, while most other neutral fans will be rooting for IU to hold serve and make it in to the playoffs
Texas -5
Texas A&M 5
Hooooooo boy. This one has been building for 13 years, and it couldn't be any bigger. If Texas wins, they're in the playoffs and they're in the SECCG in their first season. If ATM wins, Texas is probably still in the playoffs, ATM is in the SECCG (and if they lose there, I have no idea what happens)
Kansas State 2.5
Iowa State -2.5
Epic stakes for Farmageddon this year. ISU wins and they're 99% in the B12 CG and have a chance to complete the best season in school history
Washington 18.5
Oregon -18.5
This is why having rivalry games to end the season is nice. If Oregon is playing Rutgers, the game is totally meaningless. Would Oregon even play their starters? Against Washington, there are no such concerns.
Nevada 17.5
UNLV -17.5
The battle for Nevada has extremely high stakes this year. Nevada is 3-9, but six of those losses are by one score (including to Boise and SMU!). UNLV is playing to keep their playoff dream alive.
Marshall 3.5
James Madison -3.5
Virginia 7.5
Virginia Tech -7
10PM
Houston 13.5
BYU -12.5
If BYU wins, they're extremely live to playoff - they'd just need either ISU (-2.5) or ASU (-8.5) to lose. Those games are both earlier, so by the time this one kicks off, we'll know what the stakes are
Air Force -3.5
San Diego State 3.5
New Mexico -2.5
Hawaii 2.5
Tulane / Memphis game tomorrow is pretty huge:
if Tulane beats Memphis, they host Army. If they win both, then they are probably still behind Boise and still ahead of UNLV for the G5 spot.
Boise is rooting for Memphis, as that would mean they'd still get the G5 spot even if they lose to Oregon State at home then beat UNLV
UNLV is very much rooting for Memphis. If UNLV beats Nevada, they'd be playing Boise for a chance at the playoffs if Memphis (or Army) can beat Tulane
The Big-12 is also rooting fo
Colorado has 3 losses, assuming you didn't mean just conference.
Kneejerk; agree any 11-2 jumps "10 game win streak" Tulane.
10-3 K-State jumps them (already beat Tulane).
10-3 Colorado if they look good in 2 games and get a 10-2 opponent.
The 9-2s have the problem of looking like they failed upwards because other teams lost around them. It's just not a good look. Meanwhile Tulane beats an "others getting votes" team and an Army team the committee had ranked 19th last friggin' week and might very well be their "ranked" opponent next week. I don't like their 10-3 chances, but maybe Iowa State wins a rematch with K-State?
which double-digit fav do you guys think has the biggest chance of losing outright this weekend?
I'm guessing Alabama.
Rocky Top for me
SMU for GB
