Dry flop x/r from TAG - Easy stack-off or obvious punt?

ok so i expect Villain of this description to still 3bet 88 some % and QQ a whole lot but call w/ 33 there.

Though I do wanna ask if you had any idea how much they'd alter the strategy with SB in there and in what ways? Because its no longer a 1v1 but a squeeze spot Im curious if you think their squeeze range in this spot deviates from a Button raise, SB folds, BB ______

I like everything I'm seeing though.

Just because of the first point being unclear, I have no concerns about flatting flop c/r here but if there's other factors that would alter what Ive stated to some degree I would want to explore the possibility of 3! on flop. I say this with understanding that frequency of doing so would still be less than 100% but having Kh here and board texture offering some 3Xs or offsuit combos and then just a bunch of SDs and some combo gut + FD stuff if there's sufficient reason to just pile now vs peeling another card? Basically - what conditions would we need to make 3! on flop a more viable/optimal line over calling? (eg. villain will GII with low equity draws - clearly not the case as described but just an example of criteria type stuff im lookin at)

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I also cant come up with any reason to not pile turn and worry Im either just not thinking clearly enough/at my best or suffering from post turkey dinner haziness lol

This is very accurate. Against me he would raise 88's about 50% of the time I would think. He's always 3-betting QQ pre.

Sounds like a pretty bad table and we're in a bad state of mind. If we're just playing recreationally and haven't quite got our poker fix for the evening, ok, I understand hanging around... but we've got to do ourselves a favour and get off this table, no?

At our stack size of $300 and it being folded to us, I can get behind our smaller raise just to play a higher SPR pot in position (although the downside is that we're not really setting up a comfortable stackoff off spot either).

SPR is 10 and we're 3ways. In general, we shouldn't be aiming to stackoff here because we enable ~setminers to just print (as they're getting IO of 31+:1 preflop). Against ABC players we could probably just bet/fold some streets. But really difficult spot facing a check/raise from this guy, who likely knows we often have cheese here given we opened on the Button, and there are draws (ETA: Although as noted there are so few realistic combos we're behind). I think we really have to have a plan before we bet the flop. Are we cool committing at this SPR if this guy check/raises us, or can we comfortably fold? If not, then we should consider checking back the flop to keep stacks out of it.

As played, I can only assume we were fine continuing to a check/raise by this Villain, and thus I'm cool with our turn jam of just a little over a PSB when the draws bust.

Gfollowthruwithwhateverplanyouhave,imoG

That's great advice, thanks G. I think I blanked on how deep we were and the SPR. I'm trying to understand the differences here between a flop like Q-8-3fd and 8-7-5fd with KK vs a check-raise. How much to defend and how easily to stack off. I guess the latter flop is closer to a check-back and/or fold to a x/raise..but then I was thinking, because Q-8-3 is so dry he must be repping pretty thin? So then wouldn't that make the former closer to a fold OTF?

idk.. I'm confusing myself.

I think it all looks fine. Once he checks the turn, the shove seems almost mandatory.

If he has you beat already, just rap the table when he shows.

2/3 pot on flop seems too big, x/r is v. concerning because the only big draws are JT/J9/T9 with hearts. So he either has to raise a lot of nut flush draws (vs. the big bet size) ... or we are looking for a small numbers of outs.
Would be worried that open to 10 means he can have Q8s if not even Q8. Pretty much everyone has 33. Would also not discount 88 much given SB called.

So flop is all dependant on if you think he's trying to bluff us off something a lot, or he just has it a lot.

Turn check is a bit worrying, all the big combo. draws just shrug and shove hoping for folds IMO ... NFD, I guess maybe checks at least sometimes hoping you bet half pot or less.

Having a Kh is pretty bad, we also block KQ if he's ever x/r flop with a good one pair.

If we bet I think shove is probably the only good size, but I'd lean check.

Well played imo - V could easily be doing this with a decent Q. Something like KQ or QJ thinking your full of poop. Once you call on the turn he x, praying you x it back.

Result:

i dont get shoving the turn vs betting smaller

you might be running bad but your play based on your hands has a ton of leaks too. coaching would probably do you good. you need someone to sit behind you and make notes of all your errors.

the hand is played OK by action but with bet sizing it could be better vs the range that we can get called by.
10 seems very small as an open, when our image is that we're tilted then we can probably open to 20 here. then we get a flop of either 40 or 60 (mostly 60) cbet and call a raise to $100 and then when we get checked to on the turn it's an easy shove for value. I think V's raise size on the flop here is 100% a mistake and these players aren't as good as you have an image of.

blocking K hearts is good because it weights his range here to more A high flush draws that maybe pay off the shove on the turn, but more often if we could have gotten the SPR lower.

wrote that before reading results. after reading results:
raising bigger preflop also helps us avoid this. our image that we're trying to use is that we're tilty and bluffing. small pockets are less likely to call to a big pf raise and have to face a bigger cbet. with a bigger pf sizing we narrow our opponents range away from these kind of bottom set hands that stack us and towards the broadway cards we want them to have to stack them with

In general, I don't think we should be stacking off in SPR 10 pots with just one pear having given such great IO preflop, so I still think we need a better flop plan. Having said that, slightly coolerish spot as we ran into one of the very few better combos he can realistically have.

Gplaybad+runbad=poorresultsG

i don't understand what better flop plan you could want than bet / call. the way it looks like it gets played to me facing the xr is you 3b without a heart and you call with a heart. i get the way you evaluate hands is spr, but that's really outdated (the book you got it from is 15? years old at this and predates publically available solvers) and not that good for actually analyzing hands / nuance imo at least

advocating opening the button 7x at a table of regs seems wild to me too (am aware it was not your suggestion but i don't know how to quote multiple people)

The biggest mistake is the small PFR to a round number that will be max raked. As others observed, especially when you appear to be on tilt, raise big. Every LS post has these dinky raises.

I guess the flop bet makes up for this a bit. It's fine, but I'd rather raise more pre and bet a lower % of pot post. A lot of draws and pairs can call you. Not folding to a CR. A jam is probably a bit much.

Hard to go wrong on the turn here. If you knew he had A high FDs and combo draws, I guess shoving would be fine. You certainly don't want to arrive at the river with $60 back or something. I think he should probably shove himself with such hands, but maybe he doesn't.

A downside to shoving is you might let him off the hook with just a queen. If he continues betting combo draws and mostly has Qs here, this is pretty bad.

You could bet like $60 and get called by queens, and then he has a tough fold on the river. If the draws hit and he shoves you can just fold.

You could occasionally check in these spots. I'm not sure this is the best situation to do it, but there are some good reasons. If he is has JTh, or holds KQ, you hold 2 of his outs. It will be tempting for him to bluff you on blank rivers, assuming you missed a draw. A Q will have to check call the river, though maybe not for stacks. Or bet into you. It's unlikely he will bluff when draws come in, because it looks like you have a draw and if he has top pair, why bluff?

folks questioning GII on this hand or simply GII on the turn :

its 100BBs - is stacking off w/ KK vs a range that is predominantly hands that need to realize more equity not the smart money decision?

And given that the range is comprised of that - while its not awesome if villain somehow knows hero's hand, this line sets us up to attack villain's understood range w/ a higher frequency than betting turn and trying to get money in on river.

sure we fold out some of the pair+high card hands but we dont make money off that anyway on brick rivers etc

only reason i can think to bet turn as % of pot is if effective stack sizes were in an awkward range that would make turn shove an insane overbet OR if eff stacks were much greater, giving us options to develop a more complex strategy on the river

Or maybe a better question is this:

What is the range of hands calls a % of the pot bet (from 25% up to 75%) on the turn AND a c/calls rivers we would value bet on?

Obviously the %bet would theoretically change the range so if you can outline those specific adjustments.

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Another possibility:
What criteria are we looking for in a villain who is going to turn hands that dont improve to a hand that beats us on river into a bluff on the river and are we then calling all shoves on rivers that brick (so no flush completing/straight completing or potential 2pair holding)

&
If we're not calling all/any donk lead in the above brick river scenario - how are we determining the frequency of the call in that situation?

At least check back the turn.

yeah i dont get why you jammed the turn, what worse hands call?

I guess he is trying to get a draw to fold or call behind. However, a draw that checkraised would more likely bet or push the turn.

just looked at results and Im surprised folks reading the check turn from villain so clearly as bottom set.

i dont know what TAGs ya'll playing against whod be described as "not the best but not awful" - sounds like break even AT BEST to me considering only about what 5-8% of the people in any given card room are overall winning players.

Who is checking bottom set here on the turn vs a button raise especially after the flop ch/raise gets called? Ignore the "hero is tilting" for a second too.

I need help understanding how people are perceiving the turn check given flop action on somewhat wet board with a nice ammount of drawing but equity having hands in a Button VS BB hand? In my experience, flop C/R and then turn check looks like:
(1) some % pure bluff giving up
(2) a TON of draws with equity
(3) low equity hands that made a play on flop and are giving up
(4) im not seeing bottom set but top set and maybe middle set but never bottom unless im playing the computer (and even then i'd wager the % action of checking bottom set is pretty low, i'll run a sim to confirm or deny tho) or a super pro that thought the 1/3 game was short hand for 1000/3000 USD.

That said:
i dont mind giving a card here with KK but i dont see how we arent getting a rather sizeable amount of chips in on the turn and in the situatoin where villain is checking an unrealized equity hand that could flip in their favor, we've definitely made the river harder for us to play or simply write ourselves out of the match.

What am i missing? Folks saying check turn - what do you do on absolute brick rivers (2spade, 5club etc) and what is the plan on something like Th or a 7h or even a 9club say?

Yeah, I don't like villain's turn check on the wet board. However, some people at low stakes always want to play trappy with a big hand.

This is the read: Turn is basically of a brick, making the board a bit more straight drawy but still all the flop draws are there ... so all of the range that x/r flop is likely going to continue, so when V doesn't we have to think about why. It's possible that V has like Ah5h/Ah3h type hands that don't think they'll get enough folds to bet again and so want H to check back or bet small (but more likely to have just not x/r flop, or bet smaller on turn) ... so we are left with the strongest value hands for villain (88/33) and for them to not think about ranges properly.

Once we get to the turn I don't mind our jam at all. We've only got a little over a PSB left, there's draws, his check indicates we likely have the best hand, etc. What, we should bet like lol 1/3 PSB (giving immediate correct odds for flushes to draw) leaving lol 1/2 PSB for the river? Check with just a ~PSB left? Our commitment decision is being made on the flop; we should rarely be putting in ~1/3rd of our stack to not commit non-drawing hands due to pot being so relatively huge it is a big mistake to not protect it (plus we'll be getting 2:1 ourselves facing a shove which will be hard to pass up at that time). IMO.

GcluelessNLnoobG