Did I crash my boat?

You want to take J9 to war oop hu very deep against the lag kid? Folding pre, folding river. Not sure I’m even calling A9. We might have JJ pure.

Wow, crazy spot.

Not really going to comment on preflop and obviously flop is standard. I think the turn is a really good check-raise spot. If you do lead, you can probably lead much bigger? The ace is a way better card for your opponent, so I think that when you choose to bet it, you have to bet a really polar size.

My question on the river is, what is this kid representing? He is trying to say that he raised 4x OTT with aces full and then bet 2/3 pot OTR hoping you would raise... a flush? Trips?

It's a crazy spot to bluff, but I think a good, creative opponent can find them. AK, AJ, 9x, and maybe some flushes all make a degree of sense to take this line. You block JJ and 99 and I don't think he can really be doing this for value with A9, so it kinda feels like it's AA or T8hh only? I might convince myself to call, but I am sure that calling here against most opponents is a punt.

Kind of a weird spot ... in that most of the hands he's repping on the river seem unlikely to play this way, but also seems less likely that something needs to bluff the river but didn't bluff the flop.

Folding pre. seems fine.

Turn I like x/r because the A hit and he might be checking a lot of Ax hands on the flop, but lead can also be fine given paired flop checked through esp. with any reads that he's checking back a decent amount. If we do bet I don't think half pot is the size though.

River I really don't like the x/r, much prefer bet/call or even just check/call ... also I know you put effective stacks in but saying "all in" isn't quite as obvious as the fact the action went: x, bet 225, raise to 625, raise to 2450.
There's being creative and there's doing 4x river 3bets.

As said, you do have JJ/99 pure, although I'm not sure A9 should do this on the river anyway. If you have J9s do you have Th8h?

Seems very unlikely to me that JJ/A9 check the flop. AA maybe does it, and less likely but possible that Th8h does.
On the other side what bluffs does check the flop with? Even KKh seems less likely to check flop than AA? AJ? AxKh? Kh9? Th9?
But it's not obvious to me that which of those hands bet the river when they can check back, and I'd assume they'd be betting as a bluff.
AhTh/Ah8h would be sick, but kind of plausible at every point. Esp. the river size after the turn raise (trying to get value from 9x or worse flushes.

My guess is that his river value range should be AA/99/Th8h ... so given the best hand you have is 99, if you are calling wider than 1 combo maybe you should call J9 and fold JJ? (but, lol)

Also I'm not sure you post if V lost his mind and punted with AhKh or something.

What is V's likely read on you? I'm thinking he's never putting you on any 9s except 99, and like above the only value I see here is AA and maybe a half a combo of th8h that got creative pre. OTOH, this is a standard Zeebo Theorem spot, so if he actually is good, it's hard to see him doing this as a bluff. Maybe he figures you'll fold the NF to it?

IDK, but given how light he's repping I don't think I can find a fold. If he somehow has us beat here, I pay that man his money.

Forgot about you having A9, and no action on flop, so call A9 and fold JJ/J9 I guess (again, semi lol for JJ).

I get a little musby sometimes and against a super crafty player like this I may bet/call or check call.

As played, we have a pure bluff catcher b/c there's no value hand V takes with this like other than AK/AQhh and if he thinks that's value given the board and action he would be a fish. But even if we include those combos, that's 2. There's I think 8 combos of AA/JJ/99. I think AA is slightly discounted b/c of the flop check back but so are Axhh. I just don't see 6 combos of pure spazz bluffs here to call.

About the only hands JJ gets folds from that might put in more later are like 77 when a 7 hits, and even that looks weird when V then wants to put in piles on a 7x;2x runout ... on the other side almost every draw and 9x is almost drawing dead and just from what I've seen in solver land it "always" bets on paired boards when it unblocks the pair and can beat it.

Being 40x flop SPR also makes me think he shouldn't slow play much, or he'll be forced into spots like this where he's 3bet shoving river for piles.

JJ is one combo. though, but that's one of the problems here in that all combos. for both players are small (AA being the biggest for V, and if H has A9o that's a bunch).

Interesting spot. Thanks for sharing.
Preflop has been covered. Flop is standard.

On the turn, I just don't think H has any non-polar leads here. As is V's range card. I agree with illiterat's turn analysis in general.

AP, V has to turn equity to raise. But he can be as wide as KhQh or KsQs - hands that turned NFDs and gutshots draws - or even QTs in hearts and spades. This is only another 4 combos but they bear some consideration. V has all the AA, so I think he can semi-bluff this turn a lot.

River: If he has AA/JJ here he is getting my money. I cannot find a fold. I would probably not raise a nit here, but against this V it's okay. I think 98s might be the worst hand I would fold. I'm calling my KhXh flushes too.

It's possible that V has leveled himself into a jam because he discount's H's JJ and 9x given preflop action. V may have the NF or be blocking the NF combos with something like AhKs and feel that he can blast off.

For the lolz, I looked at GTOwiz ...

200bb 6max cash

UTG open
BB call (J9s is almost pure call, with some 3bet)

Flop:
BB basically pure check
UTG bets 75% of range, and JJ/A9s are 98% bet. T8s bets slightly more often than AA with Th8h betting even more often than AsAd (most often bet AA combo).

Turn:
BB stills checks 75%, incl. Js9s@63% and Jd9d@70%
...when BB bets solver likes 125% of pot (15% of range and almost all of J9s), and 33% of pot (because ofc).

When BB bets 33%
UTG prefers raising K9s/Q9s/T9s/T8s much more than AA/JJ (A9s is basically not in range anymore). Th8h/Ts8s are pure raise.
...Mostly raises 100%, but a small amount of 50% raise (and AhKh/AhQh/Ah/Th/Ah8h are all pure calls).
BB basically pure call/folds and pure calls J9s to 100% raise.

When BB bets 125% UTG just calls or folds.

River:
(both players have 5 full combos each at this point -- but it's mixed)
BB basically pure checks
UTG mostly checks (NF is not in range), but bets 50% with 1 combo and shoves 685% with half a combo.
BB pure raises 99/A9s/Js9s but calls Jd9d 86% of the time.
UTG shoves 99/AA/J9s/Th8h (A9 not in range) pure and some Q9s/T9s/98s
BB calls half A9s/J9s and all JJ/99

Also worth a note:

In solver land when BB checks turn UTG bets a bunch of different sizes, and BB doesn't raise A9s/J9s much even for 33% pot.; v. small for 50% pot and pure calls them at 75%+ pot.

Thanks for replies.

My thought process on the turn was that a smallish lead was the best way to build a big pot. I should have bet a little smaller for this. While I can have a 9, he has all AA JJ and I thought there was a good chance V would raise me with good draws and good aces and an occasional spew. I could have weak aces, draws and random stabs. Even 89 or 9t probably aren't 3! So he can raise pretty safely
Then I could CR the river.

I would hate to CR turn and have him just fold weaker aces and bluffs. Also might get a little value from weaker hands and floats With a stab.

Weird play from me, just trying to take advantage of his aggression and the stack depth. I think it is a poor spot for it, as I am not fist pumping when it goes all in. But maybe OK when more nutted? At the time I was just like "me have full house. Me win."

Gar: I'm MAWG but pretty active and was up a lot. There were a couple recs doing blind raises and stuff so it was a splashy game. I guess V saw me as a splashy but winning player.

If the goal of the turn lead is to get him to raise, then I agree that a smaller bet makes a lot of sense. The problem with this play in my games is that players will very often just call, even with hands like AK and AQ, which is kind of a disaster in this spot. I understand the fear in folding out a hand like A5s, but the reality is that you are not going to be getting a ton of value from that hand anyway, so might as well maximize versus AK/AQ. Can't imagine he has too many weak draws here when he checks back flop, because those hands will want to start bluffing earlier. Strong draws that he is playing cagey with (T8hh being one potential option) might bet-call this turn anyway.

I also think this is one of the best spots to check-raise the turn as a bluff (PFR checks back flop and a high card hits the turn) so it makes sense to stay relatively balanced if that is your strategy, at least against a good opponent.

Can't think of any value we beat on river so might be a fold. We probably haven't got worse value hands here either. Results?

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I think it's ridiculous to fold a full house on the river. Crazy stuff happens live, and relative hand strengths are reduced compared to on line play at the sane stakes.

V is clearly a creative player and capable of bold plays post flop. He's capable of bluffing here.

Even for value he can have hands you beat such as 9 or a flush AhKh, or any Ahxh. He can have 77 and 79.

AA must be heavily discounted. Good players are mostly betting flop with AA there.

If he shows up with JJ or AA it's a cooler. move on.

It would be disastrous to fold a FH here.

i'd be interested in the result.

really tough spot

i think you need to ask yourself if he would overvalue AK/AQ or flush type hands here and/or try to get you to fold a naked 9 as that's the worst possible holding you could have here

If it's ridiculous to fold then maybe hero shouldn't have raised as the raise gets terrible reverse pot odds as you are risking the full 2400 to win the extra 400 you get it he just called. What hand would you raise fold with on river? If none then you should probably only raise with close to the nuts like 99 plus or maybe JJ plus. You called turn and didn't raise now suddenly you go to town when the straight flush comes in and nothing else really changed. Seems to over represent your hand

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Ugh Ugh Ugh.

If this is anything less than a boat, this would be ungodly ballsy at these stakes. You've shown immense strength on the river, and he's basically said "I don't care" with his 3b jam.

It feels like a fold, but I'm not sure I ever find it in real time at the table.

Thanks for the informative replies, especially taking the time to put stuff into solvers.

I actually did consider just calling otr for the reasons Bill gave. It just felt incredibly nitty and the flush coming in I thought he could call a smaller raise with a flush.

I haven't tanked this much in ages, but

First off - I haven't read any other comments yet, but you've switched the suits of the one 9 and the A on the board from the flop to the turn and the river, which makes it impossible to know if he has any A9s in his range, or just A9o combos, or if the FDFD came in.

That said (grunch):

So...not looking to be the guy who always scoffs at other people's reads, but I'd want to know more about the situation in which this kid is cold 4B'ing as a bluff, before I peg him as being better than average. He may just be more aggro than average, which isn't the same thing.

I'm guessing this was HU on the flop? Against an aggro kid capable of 4B'ing as a bluff, I might just donk out on this flop, with a plan to go bet-bet-bet, depending on the run-out. Because, if we check...then what are we doing if he c-bets? Are we x/r'ing with the flopped nuts, or just smooth calling, and...then what? Check the turn, and hope he barrels?

As played on the flop, I definitely want to bet the turn, and I think we can size up. Because, other than the flopped nuts, what are we repping here for value when we just flat call pre? We don't have much that wants to bet small when the ace comes on the turn, other than a NFD. If V is aggro, he'll probably think we're weak, and will raise for value, or to re-bluff us back.

If he's as aggro as described, I don't think I'm ever folding to his jam. I don't think he's checking back the flop with AA, JJ, or A9. And there are only a handful of combos of those hands that are possible (assuming he's not opening A9o from UTG1 when the straddle is on) - 3 combos of AA, 1 combo of JJ, and 1 or none of A9s.

So, we're losing to 4 or 5 combos, assuming the aggro kid checks back the flop with all of them. If we think he checks back 50% of the time, it's 2 combos. And I think the only combo that sort of makes sense to check back is the one combo of JJ.

Depending on what the suits on board actually are, I think he either just has Ax (maybe AJ), or maybe the flush (are there three hearts on board?), or possibly a straight (if no flush possible), if we think he's wild enough to open T8 from UTG1, raise turn with it, and jam river.

What hands I'd call or fold depends on what's possible here. I'm never folding a boat, but if the flush is possible, I might fold trips, but I wouldn't get here this way with trips. I'd probably have donked out on the flop, checked turn, and check-called river. When we check flop, lead turn for 1/2 pot, and then barrel river, I would think it cuts down on his bluffs by a lot, so all we're beating is his worse value.

All that said - I wouldn't rule out this kid over-playing AJ this way, possibly trying to fold out 9x when the flush comes in, because he's blocking us from having top and middle boat. I'd think he'd be *REALLY* likely to do it if his ace also blocks the nut flush.

If we've made some disciplined folds recently, I might call with trip 9's here, especially since our 1/2 pot turn bet looks a little weak, like AX or a draw.

Now to read the rest of the comments...

Interesting reveal, and one that makes me wonder about the read provided in your OP. If this kid is aggro, I'd think he'd range-bet the flop when you flat from the BB, especially on this board.

I think your fold is going to be +EV against more tight / passive players, but probably losing money against creative aggro types who are capable of playing AJ with the NF blocker like this.

I think it's probably -EV against most of the low-stakes population, when we start by checking flop and then betting small on the turn. Our opponents are just going to have such wide ranges getting to the river that folding here is going to be a disaster more often than not.

The bigger concern for me is your not going for max value by donking out on the flop, when there's exactly 1 combo of JJ we're losing to, all his over-pairs are drawing to 2 outs, and his AJ is drawing to 1 out.

I'd much prefer a bet-bet-bet line on most run-outs, or bet-check-check-evaluate line when an over card hits the turn, or bet-bet-check-evaluate line if the river is the over-card.

We have a FH on a 3 flush connected board.

i would raise/fold trips and flushes and call off Full Houses.

Your issue here isn't this hand. It's that you don't have an overall strategy to take on players like this.

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Thanks for the post. Interesting hand.

I don't believe him. He's betting that flop
with AA.

BTW You river raise size is too small. I think you should be 4/5x at least. This is monsters under bed stuff.