2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
what?
She ruin her reputation by trying to help democrats is what I am saying. And what I meant by fake news is that it not that it fake but it biases against the right. It made me lose a bit of money by not trusting my own instinct and maxing more on Trump but it causes a lot more pain on people betting against Trump.
How is it remotely helpful to any political party to incorrectly believe they are on course to win a state lol
Accurate polling data is helpful because a political party will know whether their strategy is working or not and they can accurately assign resources to close winnable states or races etc
Inaccurate polling data doesn't help anyone unless I guess it could help a party if they trick their opponent into wasting resources on an unwinnable race or a race that they have locked up but they need to know it's inaccurate data for that to be the case
Biden pardoning Fauci is up from 9c a few hours ago on poly to 35c now.
IMO this is more likely than not. I don't play poly but this could easily get in the 65-75c range, regardless of it having any merit.
would say no on fauci, cheney, schiff pardons
can't imagine any of them accepting them, and can't imagine biden doing it if they won't be accepted. of those three, fauci seems most likely to accept
A problem with this prop is presence of asymmetric information, i.e. there are likely more than a few insiders who have the info on what Biden will do. Hence the market is not very liquid, volume < $200k as of this morning.
admission you did something illegal.
it's possible Biden admin will roll out these prepardons while recipients publicly decry them, but my understanding is there's court precedent on acceptance and this just creates further legacy risk for the admin. but maybe they dgaf i dk. 30-40c pricing seems fair to me
Another interesting prop is Trump pardoning NYC mayor Adams within first 100 days. Poly was 10c a week ago, but since then Adams has come out with some interesting statements, which IMO are pointing to Trump's soft side. 17c now.
Re Fauci it is probably less about admitting guilt, but more about testifying to Congress in the future. With immunity Fauci would not be able to plead the 5th. If he then tries to lie his way out of it, then a question of immunity covering future perjury may arise.
Depending on how the pardon is drawn up, it might cover Fauci future perjury. Hence he would be able to lie about all of it and be free and clear. So I doubt he refuses a pardon if it is drawn up that way.
Depending on how the pardon is drawn up, it might cover Fauci future perjury. Hence he would be able to lie about all of it and be free and clear. So I doubt he refuses a pardon if it is drawn up that way.
I don't think you can give a future pardon.
He can be pardoned/granted immunity for any previous perjury he may have committed.
But if he has to testify in mid-2025 for example, no previous pardon he received will save him from perjuring himself.
RFK Jr HHS confirmation NO @ 30c
i've got this closer to 60c. republican senators showed some autonomy when they picked thune over scott. with all the pharma money flowing to senators (red and blue) they will find a way to reject this pick imo. he seriously jeopardizes the oligopoly.
Except pharma stocks have been tanking
doesn't preclude further tanking if he's actually confirmed. there's obviously chance it happens.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
It will be interesting how the Senate votes. I don't know the races in 2026 but if any are close I doubt those senators vote no.
RFK Jr HHS confirmation NO @ 30c
i've got this closer to 60c. republican senators showed some autonomy when they picked thune over scott. with all the pharma money flowing to senators (red and blue) they will find a way to reject this pick imo. he seriously jeopardizes the oligopoly.
I read on Twitter that Trump was ready to go to the mat for this, so proceed with caution. I give random Twitter rumors more credence than most people, but they are true a surprisingly high % of the time.
Joni Ernst just took a picture with Kash Patel and posted it, I suspect this is a sign even RINOs know the score now and are ready to play ball.
Remember this: Any Senator who thwarts the MAGA agenda is getting primaried. We're not playing games anymore.
thanks cody. bought some more at 22c but prolly done now.
Gaetz seems to be the only one I would have bet against being confirmed even though it seems like he never intended to be attorney general and it was a ploy to prevent his ethics stuff being released
RFK jr is insanely unqualified but I fully expect enough Republicans to fall in line to confirm him because Trump wants it to happen
There are a handful of things he will do that I'd like, for example if he gets high fructose corn syrup out of most American food that would be a huge net win (if you live in America you don't realise how awful HFCS makes stuff taste until you live somewhere that doesn't use it)
It would be absurd that a conspiracy theorist anti vaxxer get confirmed but I fully expect he gets confirmed. Honestly I think all or almost all of Trumps nominees get confirmed. Hegseth maybe not if more bad stuff comes out about him abusing women or whatever.
I also expect RFK Jr probably has a falling out with Trump at some point in the next 4 years, Elon too.
Vivek is someone who will suck Trump's cock until the end of time to be next in line but at the end of the day Republican primary voters won't choose him because he is a short brown man with a weird name.
It's going to be fascinating to see which cabinet members Trump ends up feuding with and which ones stick with him until the end of the term
swoop thinks confirmation is done deal so i'm buying some more no
I hope you're right lol
expected RFK attacks to ramp up going into this weekend, but it's been pretty weak so far: a
and his lawyer opposes polio vaccine? maybe notable mcconnell has publicly criticized the polio vaccine stance.
still suspect some "surprise" news will drop in the next week that turns the market. don't see how you can oppose pharma and big ag simultaneously and come out unscathed. maybe the threat to senators of opposing trump is a more powerful counterweight though.
i'm out of pardon markets. thought legacy/optics would factor into their decisions but recent commuting of sentences suggests not.
