facing 4x pot shove on the river

When the river is paired your nutflush value is much lower than one might think. There's like what 16 reasonable combos of boats villain can have. My thought is that it's incredibly unlikely a 22/16 regfishy player would lose their mind here. If they were to ever bluff, they would be likely to pick an AcX type hand (even though they shouldn't) which we block. Also, you block a lot of flushes, so in case villain was overvaluing a flush thinking that you never fold 9x, it's not very likely.

So, your hand isn't even that good. They just shoved for 4x pot even though villain has reg fish stats. They likely have little to no bluffs and it's very unlikely they are valuebetting worse.

I'm folding.

Also, did check a sim of this. This is a pure fold at equilibrium. So for you to make a call here, villain has to play more aggressivly than a solver. I don't see that from a 10NL regfish.

May seem nitty, and perhaps I'm thinking this more like 2NL, but river overbets like this seem so nutted.

So I'm folding, and expecting the dude has a boat very often, having made a set on flop, probably.

The villain has a boat often enough for you to fold.

I 3bet preflop. As played, I check-raise the flop.

3bet pre
AP-Flop and turn seem fine. River probably fold, i dont think nl10 player jams KcTc for value so you have a bluff catcher and only bluffs that are "natural" are hands that have Ac that you block. Vs most players calling of is just -80bb play

OK, thanks!, I folded but it was painful, nice to get some confirmations...

As for preflop my chart is pure calling AJs vs CO 2.5x open (but 3betting AJo sometimes). Granted, using GTO super polar chart at NL10 is maybe not the most relevant...

Gosh now I wish I called because I could PROVE YOU WRONG (maybe), you and your rhyme.

Thanks for your answer.

Probably a fold. There are a lot of FH out there and I'm not sure how many bluffs and worse flushes show up.

IT'S A HIT

Keep in mind that you do not have the nuts and you are folding your entire range

Solver mixes with every hand!

Interesting, it far prefers to call with full house blockers rather than with AJs. Which makes sense!

Pretty straight forward fold. If he had a busted draw, he could just bet 50 and get the same result. It's not like 50-100 changes your fold rate very much. Might get you off the blackdoor nut flush, but you'll rarely have that hand.