5-10-20, weird river spot with overpair
5-10-20 2.6k effective 9 handed
Im hj with 9s9d open to 60
Cutoff fish flat off of 315$ stack, had over 2k slowly losing , seems fed up and wants to go home
Btn 50 yo asian reg covers, he’s okay, is aware of situations and appropriate ranges, is capable of bluffing but not a big bluffer. We do play a lot and he probably views me as decent.
He 3bets to 250
I call the 250 , knowing the fish will go allin for just a bit more
Fish all in 315, btn calls and i call
Flop (980) no side pot
6s7d2h i check, btn bets 250 pretty quickly, i call
Turn (980) 500 side pot 1480 total
6s7d2h 8d
I check, btn checks
River (980) 500 side 1480 total
6s7d2h 8d6c
I check again, btn tanks for a while, meanwhile fish looks like he is done with the hand , btn bets 500, hero? I have about 2.1k left, i feel like all options are good here
13 Replies
It looks like he has 1010 or JJ. I think it's unlikely he is bluffing.
it's a tough fold for that price, but based on your experience this player is rarely turning AK into a bluff here.
On the flop what worse hands is he betting given there is someone all in?
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On the flop what worse hands is he betting given there is someone all in?
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Ace highs are possible since fish’s range is obviously weak and V has the “no side pot” so im strong when i bet perception either way im not folding 99 on that board to a 25% bet
Unless V is a nit, I do not see how you can fold.
At the same time, I doubt you get called by worse if you raise and you have too much showdown value to turn your hand into a bluff.
Seems like a fairly standard call to me.
If you really wanted to turn your hand into a bluff, you might start by donking turn. Or was your plan to c/r turn?
I think I might find a call here, but I'm not loving it.
BTN doesn't need to get out of line 3B'ing very light pre, when the short stack flats our raise, and is likely to jam all-in over BTN's 3B rather than fold after we call. So if he's 3B'ing light, he's just bloating the pot.
Likewise, he doesn't need to bet small on the flop, into a dry side pot, with little to no fold equity.
I'd be reading him as strong up to the turn, but then he checks back, which makes me wonder if he just has two overs that picked up the BDFD. Like, if he has AA/KK, wouldn't he keep betting, rather than give you a free card?
If the BTN picks up on the fact that CO looks checked out, maybe he thinks he can bluff you out of the pot, and at least win the side pot, if not both the main and the side with AK. We don't look very strong when we just flat call the 3B pre and check to him on every street post flop.
The problem is that we only beat bluffs, so I think it's probably okay to over-fold here.
Unless V is a nit, I do not see how you can fold.
At the same time, I doubt you get called by worse if you raise and you have too much showdown value to turn your hand into a bluff.
Seems like a fairly standard call to me.
If you really wanted to turn your hand into a bluff, you might start by donking turn. Or was your plan to c/r turn?
Yes i was planning to c/jam turn as a bluff unless he bets a significant % of my stack.
Fold.
You can shove if you think he's weak tight. I'd have a hard time believing you have a boat here. But it's worth a try against most nitty regs.
Depends on the meta game in your games. Are regs trying to outplay each other a lot? Or are people mostly playing ABC poker? If latter, then I like a shove more.
I'm leading turn for large sizing.
everything here sucks but i like shoving better than folding and much better than calling
there's no way he interacts nutted on that board and either has an overpair or a bluff whereas you have all kinds boats, trips, and straights
he can't call a shove but likely has you beat if you call
I think a jam is pretty nifty in theory but can't really tell from reads or your image if he'll fold an overpair facing a non-standard line and repping such random hands in a 3bp.
If you are actually capable of showing up with a 6 or trapping a boat/straight here, then go for it. If you're an otherwise straightforward player who only just happened to dream up this line because you have 99 and it's the only way you can think of winning the pot, then don't.
Agree with Banana about leading the turn here in size. We have range and nut advantage here and outs if we're behind. Competent reg V can be wide from the BTN.
AP river: getting 4-1 I cannot find a fold here. It's 5-1 if you consider the side pot. I think V bets turn with TT-QQ.
Prefer to just call. Jam offers him 2-1 and probably only folds the bottom half of his range.
I think a jam is pretty nifty in theory but can't really tell from reads or your image if he'll fold an overpair facing a non-standard line and repping such random hands in a 3bp.
If you are actually capable of showing up with a 6 or trapping a boat/straight here, then go for it. If you're an otherwise straightforward player who only just happened to dream up this line because you have 99 and it's the only way you can think of winning the pot, then don't.
I was definitely c/jamming turn
The real question do i c/jam river with 88, 77,66, T9? I might just fold 66, T9 pre since btn knows he has no fold equity vs shortstack so less likely to be bluffing pre. So that just leaves me with 88, 77 for value and if there’s one bluff hand to use in this spot im guessing 99 would be it. Am i just leading out with 88 or 77 in fear of him checking back, 50/50 i would say.
I think he calls KK-AA and folds TT-QQ knowing him to the river c/jam
I think jam and folding are close and calling might be the worst option.
However comments seem pretty divided so far.
I like fold. If BTN found this sizing as a bluff, wp to him; but I think the check-shove line here is going to look super suspicious and not going to get through overpairs most of the time (*we could get hero-called by a 7x or 8x though since Hero may appear very polar).
It's certainly not a bad call mathematically. Villain's line is a little strange, but still looks value-orientated.
