Bad Coaching Thread: Matt Eberflus canned like chunk light tuna
Here's the last line from the box score of yesterday's Loiusville - Kentucky game.
UK TD 0:28
STEVE JOHNSON 57 YD PASS FROM ANDRE' WOODSON
(LONES SEIBER KICK)
Drive info: 8 plays, 74 yards.
UL 34 UK 40
As it turned out obviously the best time to take TO was immediately after the sack, 31 or 32 seconds remaining (I thought it was 35 sec but not a big difference).
It gets the staff and QB aligned on what to do on 3rd, and likely 4th down. It was 3rd and 16 so going for 4th down was possible, but not likely.
Bears needed 6 yards for a 52 yd FG. But they could throw it over the middle for 10-12 yds and as stated above have ample time to get the kicking team out there with the clock running. These
Santos literally can’t kick 58 yards so it would have to be a Hail Mary.
It was also 3rd and 26 lol
3rd and 16 or 3rd and 26, difference is irrelevant. Best chance getting 1st down would be def penalty.
Santos is 7 of 8 50+ this season, long 54.
And what’s your plan then? You don’t have enough time for a play to end in bounds and get fg unit on the field. The fact that people here are saying to spike the ball on fourth down having the luxury of having unlimited time to determine the optimal outcome speaks volumes.
You are being more fair than most. There was some validity to not calling a timeout. I just think they underestimated how difficult it is for a QB to call a play and get going after a sack. Especially a rookie QB.
It went about as terribly as possible. Caleb Williams deserves more blame than he's getting, especially after learning he changed the play at the line.
Still, they should have called a timeout the second he was sacked. Still think the coach is more to blame.
I don't think there's any NFL kicker with a weak enough leg that he "literally can't" kick the ball 58yd. I can definitely see where Santos and some other kickers would be like "I can promise you nothing on accuracy if I have to let it rip from that distance" though.
Still woulda been a better percentage chance than what wound up happening.
I don't think there's any NFL kicker with a weak enough leg that he "literally can't" kick the ball 58yd. I can definitely see where Santos and some other kickers would be like "I can promise you nothing on accuracy if I have to let it rip from that distance" though.
Still woulda been a better percentage chance than what wound up happening.
There’s not a whole lot of data without access to his pregame kicking warm ups but here’s a 65 yard attempt from a few years ago that wasn’t remotely close and a 56 yard attempt from this year that wasn’t close either. The one from this year was vs the colts and you can see that he needs to use an outrageously low trajectory and still couldn’t get it there. He had to use a similar teajectory for kicks vs the packers and Vikings this year for fgs in the 40s that were both blocked.
You are being more fair than most. There was some validity to not calling a timeout. I just think they underestimated how difficult it is for a QB to call a play and get going after a sack. Especially a rookie QB.
It went about as terribly as possible. Caleb Williams deserves more blame than he's getting, especially after learning he changed the play at the line.
Still, they should have called a timeout the second he was sacked. Still think the coach is more to blame.
Yea right when he got sacked I thought they should call a timeout . You can draw up an actual play and still have plenty of time to get the field goal unit on the field assuming there is a completion inbounds with the clock running. But it's possible I'm wrong and not calling it right away was optimal. After about 10 seconds I was shocked to see them with zero urgency still not getting a play off.
Caleb would be getting more blame if his coach didn't do the stupidest thing any coach has done in a very long time.
Caleb definitely should have shown more urgency, but that's where the coach needs to step in and call the TO at around 15-20 seconds.
Im coming from a standpoint of Eberflus should have been fired many of times.
How egregious is it tho?
You call a timeout at :15 seconds, you’re probably throwing the ball out of bounds/out of the end zone, and looking at a 58 yard field goal attempt.
Caleb hikes the ball anywhere from :07-:15, it’s the same result. (or you complete a pass and have a much more manageable field goal).
/edit
I feel like a timeout at :06-:07 makes some sense…your QB botched it, time for a Hail Mary/ or 58yd FG attempt (btw shouldn’t every team know their kickers exact range?).
Im coming from a standpoint of Eberflus should have been fired many of times.
How egregious is it tho?
You call a timeout at :15 seconds, you’re probably throwing the ball out of bounds/out of the end zone, and looking at a 58 yard field goal attempt.
Caleb hikes the ball anywhere from :07-:15, it’s the same result. (or you complete a pass and have a much more manageable field goal).
/edit
I feel like a timeout at :06-:07 makes some sense…your QB botched it, time for a Hail Mary/ or 58yd FG attempt
Why would you let 20 seconds run off before calling it? I mean that's better than what they did but still bad.
And yes every team should know their kickers range and how long it takes the FG team to get on the field and in position to me get a kick off.
Let there be Range!
Spoiler
If my kicker were 7 for 8 from 50+ and his range is 55, then I would probably focus on keeping him in his range (which he was on 1st down btw). And if he got out of range, I would run a play to get him back in range.
I wonder what CHI WE was on 1st down and 20 at the 36 with 35 sec remaining. Figure median gain around 5-8 yards, 48 yd FG attempt, 70--80% chance to make and play OT. I'm guessing at least 30%.
The way they played it, pretty close to zero. Does it justify firing? That + not admitting the egregious error was certainly enough justification to be fired.
That + not admitting the egregious error was certainly enough justification to be fired.
I think this is almost the biggest part of it. There's probably a standard coach-speak way of taking blame while also acknowledging your QB's part in the disaster, like "We need to coach Caleb better on how to manage time in that spot, but in any case I should have taken a time out once he started changing the play at the line. It was a tough loss and we all need to learn from it."
But basically coming out and saying he regrets nothing and it's just like they drew it up would particularly rub me the wrong way as an owner, basically I'd be like "he's either really stupid himself, or he thinks I'm stupid enough to believe that. **** this guy."
McDermott doing stupid things for no reason
Down 9 with all 3 timeouts and a minute left:
1. Qb sneak from the 1
2. When that failed, waste a timeout still from the 1
We don't have bad reffing thread, so:
Line judge giving Rams a free roll on 4th down up 3 against Bills. Iinstead of flagging clear false start on Havenstein, which would have forced a 4th and 10 and a near certain FG attempt to go up 6, Rams get 1st down leading to TD later.
We don't have bad reffing thread, so:
Line judge giving Rams a free roll on 4th down up 3 against Bills. Iinstead of flagging clear false start on Havenstein, which would have forced a 4th and 10 and a near certain FG attempt to go up 6, Rams get 1st down leading to TD later.
might sound good on paper, butt pretty sure a bad reffing thread would result in a similar amount of fecal waste as your local dairy yet presented with an air of superiority
Threw it in the game day thread but Pierce called a timeout with 2:03 left in the game with Bucs 3rd and 6 at Raiders 29, giving the Bucs a free opportunity at a passing play as the clock would be stopped at 2:00 anyway. Bucs throw a pass and score a TD, icing the game
Especially because what they wound up doing is just lining up for another sneak to get the other half yard they needed. They could have done that in 15-20s and saved the other 20-25s from the lack of a timeout on the other side.
Still woulda been in horrible shape after a punt, but they'd have time for a couple of plays.
Andy Ried's ineptitude on '3 and 1' and '4 and 1' deserves a mention ITT, IMHO
In honour of tonight's GB@SEA game I went back almost a decade to a classic of a genre. You know the one
November 17:
Fat Mike McCarthy coached back to back games with no complaints, one against an NFL caliber team. Time to change the thread title imo.
January 19 and 1st FG from the 1:
2nd FG from the 1:
Who was it that suggested FAT MIKE deserved to be removed from the thread title? LOL that guy.
When the commentators and my wife are questioning your decision making, some self reflection is in order.
Mike taking his game up a notch in the postseason. He's like the Michael Jordan of awful coaches.
Another 4th&1 FG in the red zone:
End of game:
SEA recovers onside:
Not even sure what the second WOAT coaching performane is after that.
- FG from the 1
- FG from the 2
- 4th and 1 FG from the 23
- not ready for a fake FG in a high-leverage fake spot, gave up TD
- lost in OT
We have seen history, gentlemen.
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Fat Mike defends himself:
"The one statistic I had has as far as a target to hit was 20 rushing attempts in the second half, I thought that would be a very important target to hit for our offense."
It was SenorKeeed, henceforth to be known as SenorMike always and forever.
FAT MIKE's belly is a weird hill to die on.
I was just saying that other coaches were clearly much worse that week...I was clearly correct.
Casual fans chiming in:
Girls packer fan commented on my status making fun of fat mike (she's pretty hot too)
"Ok good. I was going to say, Mike McCarthy is an AMAZING coach. He is the most conservative coach in the NFL and he makes great decisions. He has NOT cost Aaron Rodgers two Super Bowls at all. He has helped build a team that every single year comes to play. I wouldn't want any other coach. He is not at all the reason we lost today. Dom capers has more fingers pointed at him than anyone right now."
Lmao and some more from her... This might consume my night
I don't agree with you at all. Before he decided to kick those two field goals, I was screaming "Take the points!" You have to take the points. If he wouldn't have kicked those field goals, we probably would've never even seen overtime. He made great calls. His challenge last week is the reason that we even played this game tonight.
[URL=http://s1284.photobucket.com/user/muhuncha/media/imagejpg1_zps934aa4f0.jpg.html][/URL]
1-18-15
Never forget
Reminds me of when Greg Schiano announced after he got hired that the Bucs were going to run the ball, because studies proved that teams who gain 100 yards rushing win the game
Insane that it's 2015 and just knowing the difference between causation and correlation is enough to make you an above average NFL game manager
All in all a solid 800 posts of loling Fat Mike and subsequent discussion including many POKER ANOLOGIES. Would read again.
I'm actually surprised by this, for sure punting there is suboptimal but I'd have expected it to be way way closer to neutral than to 100th percentile.
I did some research on this.
Since 2003, worst punting decisions, for teams down 1-8 inside 5 minutes remaining in game. Sorted by descending win equity before punt:
[code]
Game ID Season Pos Team Def Team Down Dist To Goal WP (pre/post) Play Description
2007_08_JAX_TB 2007 TB 23 JAX 24 4 4 41 0.521 0.413 (5:00) (Punt formation) 9-J.Bidwell punts 38 yards to JAX 3, Center-48-A.Economos, downed by TB-85-M.Stovall.
2003_10_CHI_DET 2003 DET 9 CHI 10 4 2 64 0.476 0.354 (4:15) 2-N.Harris punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-89-B.Banta. 21-R.McQuarters to CHI 21 for 1 yard (31-A.Cobourne).
2014_13_CIN_TB 2014 TB 13 CIN 14 4 11 42 0.465 0.360 (4:11) (Punt formation) 9-M.Koenen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.
2019_08_LAC_CHI 2019 CHI 16 LAC 17 4 16 46 0.448 0.293 (2:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LAC 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.
2004_06_SF_NYJ 2004 SF 14 NYJ 15 4 16 35 0.445 0.277 (4:27) 4-A.Lee punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-86-B.Jennings, Touchback.
2005_15_SD_IND 2005 IND 17 LAC 19 4 24 38 0.427 0.255 (2:36) 17-H.Smith punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-48-J.Snow, Touchback.
2019_18_TEN_NE 2019 NE 13 TEN 14 4 4 63 0.418 0.357 (3:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.
2016_01_NYG_DAL 2016 DAL 19 NYG 20 4 13 67 0.400 0.347 (4:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
[/code]
Average equity lost on these punts is about 12 % pts. In other words, really bad punting decisions. One team was actually favored to win the game before punting.
Payton's 2nd punt last night fails to get in this list.
Yeah I guess I'm forgetting it's just the 2024 season they're using for the %ile calculation, shows how the game has changed (for the better obv). 20 years ago a punt in that spot would have been ridiculously standard. Go back another 10-15 years before that, and you'd have announcers ranting about "trusting your defense" if a coach tried to go for 4th and 2 with 1:45 left at midfield, down 7, with like 2 TOs left.
