AA24
2-3 with 10 rock. V in utg is a big station but we don’t know much about his betting ranges as he hasn’t bet very often. 4K eff. The rock is on the bb.
Hero on btn with AA24 with A24ccc
Pre: V limps, 3 limps, hero limps, bb checks. 6 ways
Flop (65) : KcTc3x
Bb checks, V pots only hero calls
Turn (195) : Ax
V pots hero calls
River (585) : 7d
V bets 300
7 Replies
I see the flaws in this AA combo and the likelihood of mw action and I still just raise pre. I think there's more edge picking and choosing flops to bet on the button, even 4 ways, than there is in limping the few AA that solver approves. I could be wrong about this.
Flop seems fine.
Turn seems like a raise. SPR 20, in position with lots of backup if he comes over the top with only straights.
As played, we have bad bluffcatching traits in our hand and he's using a "milking you" size. But then he's offering a price to find out whether he has KK or AKT here. There's certainly enough combos in the deck to justify call. You're deep enough that maybe this is a small enough price to write off the -ev "for information" but also maybe the pool is deep enough here (texas, iirc) that you're not playing with this opponent often enough to recoup your investment on the info. On balance, I think I would fold.
Do you think he is bad enough to have KK here a decent portion of the time? If your read is correct he is never bluffing really (but might overvalue KK). I certainly would not raise the turn. Call river unless you think he can only have the nuts, in which case you wouldn't be asking I guess.
When a station limps ahead of you and you're in position with AA and a suit, not raising is criminal, barring a solid reason to believe someone behind you is going to reopen the action.
I'm too drunk to comment on postflop
As others have mentioned, raise pre. I'm fine with the flop, but I raise the turn. Now that we are here, I just call. Hard for him to call with worse.
I somehow disagree with every street. Sometimes I over call weak unsuited aces on the button for deception, but never limp. That's very weak passive.
There's too much equity to fold the flop, so pot and hope you can force a fold. An over pair with nut FD can't be much worse than 30%.
Turn (and river) you said the player is very passive and he still pots a nut changing turn. Strongly consider fold as an exploit if you don't have any other good read.
Raise pre.
Click the turn that deep.
Probably call river because they will likely still be betting KK for (bad) value for that size, QJ is usually a bit more greedy.
