Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Venice's Introduction to the Thread.
I make a rule to not change someone's post unless it violates a rule. However this is the exception. Not because APD's post is bad (it is good), but because there's lots of discussion back and forth on winrates, and some people are just looking for a simple answer to winrates and bankrolls.
The simple answer is that winning is good. The majority of people playing poker lose money. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of rake. Therefore if you are winning, you're doing well.
Harrington wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you're crushing it. That's $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn't mean that you can't beat it for more, it just means that over time winning that much means you're vastly superior than your opponents. Most people don't sustain that over a long period of time because they move up to win more money.
The second simple answer is to stop worrying about what your sustainable winrate is. In order to get a big enough sample to statistically generate an accurate winrate, you and your opponents have play thousands of hands exactly the same way. Poker doesn't work that way. If you aren't improving your play over that amount of hands, you're falling behind your opponents. Therefore, the results are meaningless.
Finally, Kurt put it best that you need 20 buyins to play a level.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/mic...
On to the rest of the thread.
So here it is... The Win Rate thread (and other finances)!
This thread will basically be a containment thread and will stock pile all of the questions and answers about winrates. I would also like to include bankroll management and other finances into this thread. Bottom line is this, if you are worried about a win rate you should probably be worried about bankroll management also.
Instead of starting this thread like all other winrate threads by asking the question, "What is a good hourly/winrate at live 1/2?" I would rather take the time to explain a few tools live players have to help us with it and to also help us become disciplined. The "whats a good rate" questions I am sure will be asked time and time again.
Online players have some superb tools that they get to use. HUD's, databases, OPR, PTR, Shark Scope, and the list goes on. Live players have one thing, our memory. As we all know the human mind is prone to what is called human error, or in a lot of "winning" poker players cases exaggeration and forgetfullness. I think its important to discuss how we go about keeping track of all this information that will be important to and for our games. So get your pens and pads ready, or phones, and get ready to start logging!
What goes into a winrate? A lot of people simply log the hours played, the amount they bought in for, and the amount they cashed out. At the end they calculate it all together and wala a winrate or, like most live players use, an hourly rate. This is probably the easiest way to do it. When I first started logging my play I would bring a binder with me that kept all my poker "stuff" in it and I would log it into the book at the end of the session. If I had forgotten the binder I would make a quick note in my phone and write it later. I always made it a point to do it right then and there though. Never ever wait! Human error will kick in.
Times have gotten much more advanced though. Live players now have some pretty useful tools that we can use. First one I will talk about is Poker Journal for the Apple fanboys.
Poker Journal by Michael Golden is a program that will track both your live and tournament play (and any game you would like to add to your database) and calculate everything for you. It will give you your hourly rate, time played, average won, average lost, sessions won and lost, and much much more. It will also graph your sessions and run reports for you. You want to know what day or time has been the best to play or what location is the most profitable? Simply filter your stats and its all there. It will also run live cash games. You hit start and the clock goes a ticking. Unfortunately it runs only on the iPhone and iPod at the time and is $12.99.
Next is www.checkyourbets.com. I personally have not used this, but going to the website and looking at some of the screen shots and reading the FAQ it looks pretty solid and its FREE! 😃 Others on here use this site and I will let them add what they feel is appropriate.
Last is cardplayer.com. Their format is very simple yet boring. If you want something quick and easy with not too much detail then its for you. It definately beats a pen, paper and calculator, but I would go with one of the other ones personally.
There are others, but I think those are some pretty good examples. So why go through all this trouble to tell you about these tools? Simple, you want to know what kind of winrate is to be expected then start logging. What I do is not going to be the same as what you do or anybody else does. Not only will you start to learn about winrates at the different levels but you will be able to disect your game and learn many things. It will teach you discipline. When you are making it a point to log each session you will start to treat your poker more like a business and become more serious about it. Also important is to log your expenses. You need to know if you are spending too much and if it is affecting your roll.
Bankroll is another important thing. I think we all can agree that 20 BI's at 1/2is a good starting point, but if you dont want to wait to save up $2k just to play some poker there is nothing wrong with taking shots. In our world (casinos) this is the smallest game offered and we really have no choice. I will leave the bankroll information out for now as there are many different opinions on it.
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.
Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).
For the winning players here - what's the longest stretch (in hours) you've gone break even?
Depends, when I was winning around 7-9bb/hr, I’ve had around 200-250 hours of breakeven stretches.
But when I became a crusher, nothing close to 100 hours. I guess one can’t really crush when there are big stretches of dips.
Spoiler
^ I'm currently at 250 hours, 53 sessions, ~7000 hands and break even.
Not sure what if anything this indicates
Alone it doesn't indicate much. I am currently break even in the last 435 hours since August 22, 88 sessions. It's been a very underwhelming year with two 25k downswings:
Depends, when I was winning around 7-9bb/hr, I’ve had around 200-250 hours of breakeven stretches.
But when I became a crusher, nothing close to 100 hours. I guess one can’t really crush when there are big stretches of dips.
You will run into it again. 100 hours is like 3k hands. Yes if you have a very high win rate you are less likely to go on bigger, longer downswings. But it still happens. You can run very good or very bad for a long time
Played my last session of the year yesterday so it's time to share some year-end results. I played 6.5 hours a week and I managed to sunrun all year. I won another $8.5k playing 50NL online too, albeit in one of the softest player pools imaginable.
I had only played 15 hours of $2/$5 prior to this year. No chance I am beating that game for anything close to 10bb/hr longterm, but you won't catch me complaining about it for now.
I did make some meaningful changes to my game at the end of 2023 that have helped me a lot. My lifetime winrate at $1/$2 right now is $13.58/hr over 721 hours.
Noice year. Congrats.
I had only played 15 hours of $2/$5 prior to this year. No chance I am beating that game for anything close to 10bb/hr longterm, but you won't catch me complaining about it for now.
I did make some meaningful changes to my game at the end of 2023 that have helped me a lot. My lifetime winrate at $1/$2 right now is $13.58/hr over 721 hours.
Be interested to know what those "meaningful changes" were. I'd say 10bb/hr is achievable depending on the game you're playing (but even half of that is pretty decent). Anyway, congratulations!
Nice live results √
I won another $8.5k playing 50NL online too, albeit in one of the softest player pools imaginable.
Care to share the site?
I've done MUCH better live than online--to the point where I don't trust ANY of the US-facing online sites (not in an online poker state, so can't play Stars, WSOP, etc.)
Be interested to know what those "meaningful changes" were. I'd say 10bb/hr is achievable depending on the game you're playing (but even half of that is pretty decent). Anyway, congratulations!
10bb/hr is definitely achievable but I just don't think I'm there yet. I play mostly daytime hours in a nitty player pool and I buy-in for 100bb, which isn't a recipe for a huge winrate (unless you run hot over a small sample like I did this year).
Main changes were continuing to tighten up pre-flop (less cold calls, less ISOing with weak hands, less 3betting vs. strong ranges) and to stop punting multi-way (bluffing way less, defending less against bets and raises, checking way more OOP). It seems like it would be basic stuff but I was coming from an online background and just trying to constantly outplay and out-aggress my opponents. I was suffering from a lack of discipline combined with a fundamental misunderstanding of how to play in extreme multi-way situations (which, of course, is almost every hand at $1/$2).
Nice live results √
Care to share the site?
I've done MUCH better live than online--to the point where I don't trust ANY of the US-facing online sites (not in an online poker state, so can't play Stars, WSOP, etc.)
Thank you! Yes I am happy to share. The site is called stake.us. It is a popular online casino (you will see celebrities like Drake doing marketing for them) that just introduced player-to-player online poker earlier this year. They operate using a "sweepstakes model" similar to Global Poker. For a while, the games were unbelievably good with some of the worst players imaginable and very few competent regs. The phrase "like shooting fish in a barrel" comes to mind.
Unfortunately, the games have gotten worse as the site has grown and the rake has also dramatically increased. The games are probably still worth playing though, and I didn't see anything shady at the stakes I was playing. My state (Connecticut) actually just banned the site from operating here, so I am sadly no longer able to play myself. It is still available in most other states though.
I had only played 15 hours of $2/$5 prior to this year. No chance I am beating that game for anything close to 10bb/hr longterm, but you won't catch me complaining about it for now.
The couple of times I've seen you at 2-5 you seemed to be short stacking, and had wondered if that's been working out for you ... I guess I know now 😉.
Also surprised you don't play more hours.
Still amused you 3bet me to 20bb off a ~60bb stack, mostly because my first reaction was to snap shove range but then I thought for a bit and decided to fold.
10bb/hr is definitely achievable but I just don't think I'm there yet. I play mostly daytime hours in a nitty player pool and I buy-in for 100bb, which isn't a recipe for a huge winrate (unless you run hot over a small sample like I did this year).
Makes sense --- sound like fun games!
Main changes were continuing to tighten up pre-flop (less cold calls, less ISOing with weak hands, less 3betting vs. strong ranges) and to stop punting multi-way (bluffing way less, defending less against bets and raises, checking way more OOP). It seems like it would be basic stuff but I was coming from an online background and just trying to constantly outplay and out-aggress my opponents. I was suffering from a lack of discipline combined with a fundamental misunderstanding of how to play in
Learning to play multiway pots is certainly an underestimated skill. Quite often there is a disconnect between theory and practice, which speaks more to discipline than anything else.
The couple of times I've seen you at 2-5 you seemed to be short stacking, and had wondered if that's been working out for you ... I guess I know now 😉.
Also surprised you don't play more hours.
Still amused you 3bet me to 20bb off a ~60bb stack, mostly because my first reaction was to snap shove range but then I thought for a bit and decided to fold.
lol that was kind of a weird spot at that stack depth (many limps, illiterat ISO BTN $35, Dan GK has $325 in SB). I had AKo that hand so you probably made the right decision unless you folded 88 or something.
I would like to play more hours next year (somewhat unlikely to happen) and I should probably start buying in deeper too. Was buying in short to ease the transition from $1/$2 to $2/$5 but I feel like I've settled in a bit now. Bankroll is doing pretty well these days too 
Results from a seven-month stretch in Manila and Phnom Penh. The contrast between the two locations has much to do with game structure as well as reg-rec ratio (not to mention variance and perhaps inability to adjust). 50 PhP is roughly 1 USD.
Haven’t played much since COVID. Starting to get more active live in FL.
Browsing this thread I noticed MikeStarr hasn’t posted since 2020.
He played in my neck of the woods; anyone know where he went ?
I guess I'm probably not playing again this year.
Mostly for the lolz...
tl;dr
+$1.2k over 538h ... giving $2.22/hr
+$1.5k in bonuses
1-2 at casinos:
+$3.5k over 418h ... giving $8.60/hr
2-5 at casinos:
-$2.3k over 40h ... giving -$58.69/hr (hopefully make it up in volume next year 😉
Worth mentioning for extra lolz ...
+$998 this month when I played 3 days for 25h total, including the first time on the 23rd for 8 hours at -$50/hr.
Results for my year below - I guess the extra 93 hours helped after a -$400 2023
Mostly play in rake-free high-variance very fun home games (.25/.25, .25/.50, 1/1 match the stack) outside of the occasional 1/2 or 1/3 weekend games at various local casinos - a few fruitful 1/2 sessions while on holiday in Florida also helped
Hoping to get to 500 hours next year (would've gotten there had the 1/1 game I frequented weekly not shuttered mid-year unfortunately) and be a small winner at 1/3 (down $1900 over ~120 hours at my local, small sample size but very frustrating)
13.6 bb/hr +16,500~ @ 2/5. Only played half the year semi casually.
Moved to an area with a real casino. Game is way easier compared to the 1/3 I was playing but rake is higher. In the immortal words of Fluxboy, "I can write my poker strategy down on a napkin with a crayon."
2024 results:
Overall:
Profit: $8684
Days played: 141
Win %: 60.3%
Total hrs: 597.25
BB/hr: 5.2
$/hr: $14.54
Breakdown: ...... 1/2 ........ 1/3 ....... 2/5
Profit: ...... $2919 ....... $3816...... $1949
Win %: ...... 83.3% ...... 56.8%...... 57.5%
Hrs: ....... 64.75...... 413.25...... 119.25
BB/hr: ...... 22.5 ...... 3.08 ...... 3.3
Thoughts: Disappointed, overall 5.2 BB/hr was highly skewed by 1/2 results. Last year my overall BB/hr was 8.86... Also last year overall $/hr was $31.92.
I actually think I digressed primarily due to variance. Had alot of run bad and bad beats. Definitely played poorly in some hands but who doesn't? Looking forward to this new year!
Nice live results √
Care to share the site?
I've done MUCH better live than online--to the point where I don't trust ANY of the US-facing online sites (not in an online poker state, so can't play Stars, WSOP, etc.)
The reason you have done worse online is because online is far more difficult than live. In order to find online a stake of comparable difficulty to live you have to take your live stake and divide it by a 100.
My 2024:
Got off to a great start in 2024 but then really sputtered out. I somehow even booked a losing month in December (the first time I've done that in 14 attempts at 1/3 NL), which also broke a streak of 17 consecutive winning months (which is actually kinda insane given my low ~35 hours per month volume).
On the plus side, I'm still more than happy to book yet another winrate slightly above my historical average of ~7 bb/hr. I really shouldn't be taking this for granted.
As always, I'm apprehensive about the future, especially as the playing conditions continue to worsen. Our room switching from 10 handed to 9 handed this year is not a good thing for me. The high hand promo drop is killing me (I've won a single high hand for peanuts in the almost 2 years it has been running, and guesstimate it has likely cost me upwards of 8 BIs). And it would not surprise me if we reach that $10 max rake this year. I also haven't had a downswing since 2017, so a correction is long overdue. Again, I'm probably taking my $20+ winrate far too much for granted when I believe a single digit winrate could easily be shipped this year. But only one way to find out!
GcluelesswinratesnoobG
For your amusement and my accountability, in gratitude to your guidance, here are my results since I started playing in raked games in the summer 2021.
Sessions incl. tournaments: 107
Average hours per session: 4.5
Total winnings: $1,399
Win rate/hr (total): $2.91
BB/hr (total): 1.45
Tournament winnings: $1,160
Win/hr at 1/2 cash raked 6-3-1: $1.29
Loss/hr at 2/5 cash raked 6-3-1: -$31.67
Loss in a corrupt home game: -$260
Other Notable Achievements
Food points actual: $920
With over 55 discount: $1,840
Value of free electric car charges at casino: about $400
Loss over 40 hours in Las Vegas while manic and off my bipolar meds: $200
Tips to dealers in same period: $260
Thanks everyone for your advice and encouragement! If you want to buy a Rembrandt, please dm me.
Donson
The high hand promo drop is killing me (I've won a single high hand for peanuts in the almost 2 years it has been running, and guesstimate it has likely cost me upwards of 8 BIs).
I normally use BI as a synonym for 100bb, which would mean you think it's cost you roughly -2.4k?
I think this is a bad way to look at it ... high hands and bad beats are EV neutral, and they get people into the room to play (and lose to you).
Saying that, my guess is your style is probably the worst for winning high hands.
I normally use BI as a synonym for 100bb, which would mean you think it's cost you roughly -2.4k?
I think this is a bad way to look at it ... high hands and bad beats are EV neutral, and they get people into the room to play (and lose to you).
Saying that, my guess is your style is probably the worst for winning high hands.
Based on my calculations, promotions account for around $5 an hour of profit for me. Surprised that gg doesn't win anything at all.
Also, I think that promotions favor the weekday and day players. If you only play on weekend nights, you get higher win rates, but not any promo money.
Yeah, I'm not exactly sure how to calculate the affect of our high hand promo.
$1 is taken from the pot once it reaches $15 (and a flop is seen). 7 different categories of high hands (various quads and straight flushes), they all accumulate until they are hit where they are then reset, but once a category is hit it can't be hit again that day (something I've done 3 times). There is a 10% management fee (same as on our BBJ) so basically just another horrible tax (i.e. players are most definitely losing as a whole on the "promo").
If I estimate a tight player winning 2 hands per hour, over 400 hours (which is what I'm averaging per year right now) that would cost me $800 per year (4 x my 66bb $200 BI). Although I did forget to include my single $247 payout (which I don't include in my winrate stats, FWIW), so costing me about 3.5 BI per year.
Obviously small ~2 year sample size, and I think I'm probably just running far below EV. The daytime pro is leading at 30 hits (usually starting the game in the morning, which helps in this format), I know of no other regs like me that are remotely sitting on 1, although obviously this promo does not favour tight players (ETA: At least in terms of hitting them more often).
The really difficult thing to figure out is how much affect (if any) having the high hand promo adds to my winrate thanks to poor players chasing them. My guess is the affect is negligible as poor players are going to play poorly anyways and it is unlikely it has any affect on drawing players (gambloorers gonna gambol, imo).
GcluelesshighhandpromonoobG
Us mega nits who also short stack dont win promos due to lack of hands played. Think of how many sc’s we fold. Ive played a little over 1k hours total in 2 casinos. One with a daily high hand and another with hourly hh’s and won zero. NIT tax, i know how bad you guys feel for us.
Us mega nits who also short stack dont win promos due to lack of hands played. Think of how many sc’s we fold. Ive played a little over 1k hours total in 2 casinos. One with a daily high hand and another with hourly hh’s and won zero. NIT tax, i know how bad you guys feel for us.
Yeah, it's a double edged sword. Nits obviously don't win as many high hands as the loose players due to folding so many of them preflop. However, nits probably win fewer hands overall than loose players and thus donate less to the promo fund.
Still, any "promo" that has a 10% management fee is simply another form of rake for the pool overall, imo.
GcluelessfakepromonoobG
