Top trips facing a turn raise
$1/$2 game on a Saturday afternoon.
This is probably a pretty simple spot, and there is really only one villain in the hand, but sharing all of the following reads anyway just for a laugh:
Hero in UTG1 - I should have a solid, aggressive image. I lost a few medium-size pots to the table spot, but have chipped up a bit since then and now cover this relatively short-stacked table.
UTG2 - Loose-passive fish
HJ - Bad reg. He and I have some history (see: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/l... ) and I am out for revenge, but he’s a non-factor here.
BTN - Older white guy and the villain in this hand. I previously thought he was very tight, but then we played a hand where I opened EP with AJo (no d) and he was the only caller on the button. Flop came J67dd, I cbet, he called. Turn 7ddd xx. River 9dddd I x he xb and show T8o for the rivered straight. Starts this hand with $265.
SB - The biggest “spot” at the table. Wealthy, obnoxious New Yorker in all-designer everything. Claims to crush the $5/$10 game here, but is short-buying $1/$2 and playing like a loose-passive whale. He has doubled up three times (twice through your hero) and we are $350eff.
–
A6dd
I open UTG1 to $7 playing 8-handed and get four calls from the above players.
Flop is 9h 6h 6s ($37 before rake)
SB checks, I check, and it checks around.
Turn is 9h 6h 6s 2s ($37 before rake)
SB checks, I bet $15 and it folds to the button who makes it $50. SB folds. Hero?
Do you bet flop 5 ways, or go for the check-raise? Bet-3b here or just flat? I know that some people are going to roast the $7 open size and probably the loose open, so have at it…
yeah idk. its unlikely any reasonable solution that doesn't lose game value (ev) is going to pot into 4 people here w anything. its even less likely you're going to be able to do that for value with less than trips. you're just going to funnel people into trips+ if you start putting in large bets over multiple streets and blocker effects blah blah. its why you really don't see large bets on these textures unless trips is entirely unrepresented in ranges. then you figure whatever size you bet has
To be fair, it's 1/2, where the player pool is generally bad, or at least, there's no shortage of bad opponents.
To be specific, OP's description of his opponents was "Loose-passive fish", "Bad reg", a "spot" who's been bragging about crushing 5/10 but playing like a whale, and the main V who initially seemed tight but at least one showdown indicates he may actually be pretty loose-passive.
My main counter to your position is that you're giving these players too much credit for being able to deduce we've got trips when we bet pot on the flop, whereas anyone who's spent enough time in the low stakes streets has seen plenty of rec-fish blast off with all their over-pairs on boards just like this, and seen plenty of players calling with 77, 88, 9x, and all their draws.
Because it is hard for opponents to have trips or a boat here, and draws will make up a disproportionally large part of their ranges, I would deviate by sizing up and betting pot with the parts of my range that want to bet. It's not just trips, but also some boats (96), combo draws, and some PP's (AA, JJ, TT, 88, 77, and 55).
Also, the fact is that A6 isn't anywhere near an invulnerable hand, when there are a ton of flush and straight draws available in a SRP, and any PP can make a sneaky boat on future streets. We shouldn't mind if we bet pot and our opponents fold out some hands with decent equity.
We really shouldn't have A6 in our range when we open from EP, so if we are out of line with our open, and then we manage to smash it, I'd think we'd want to size up for max value, especially multi-way against loose-passive fish, when there's only 18bb's in the pot.
yeah idk man, things change significantly when its 5 ways as opposed to headsup. it may be hard for one opponent to have trips+ but if they each have trips+ 5% of the time, (bb will have them slightly more often (~7.5%) and tbh probably btn too given results / player type) that actually adds up to a huge amount of the time that you run into a hand better than AA. its very different then the burden of defense is split 4 ways as opposed to 1 player, and even if they dont understand that, people get that they are supposed to fold more multiway and vs larger bets. theres really no way you're going to be able to implement the strategy you're suggesting without large ev loss.
I wonder if we're not focusing too much on the fact that the board is paired, at the cost of overlooking how wet and dynamic it is otherwise.
Yes, in a five-way pot, it's possible one our four opponents might conceivably have trips, but our opponents have way more middling pairs and SC's in their ranges than trips combos. Any 5 through T could complete a straight draw, any heart could complete a flush draw, and any card from a 2 through J might make someone a boat, depending on how wide our opponents are pre.
Instead of worrying about flopped monsters under the bed, I'd be more concerned with giving away free cards to four opponents with ranges that have a lot of equity against our flopped trips and over-pairs. I'd think there's a ton of in-game EV to be gained from denying equity from big chunks of our opponents' ranges, when we have a hand that isn't invulnerable.
I wonder if we're not focusing too much on the fact that the board is paired, at the cost of overlooking how wet and dynamic it is otherwise.
Yes, in a five-way pot, it's possible one our four opponents might conceivably have trips, but our opponents have way more middling pairs and SC's in their ranges than trips combos. Any 5 through T could complete a straight draw, any heart could complete a flush draw, and any card from a 2 through J might make someone a boat, depending on how wide our oppo
the thing is it isn't monsters under the bed when you face trips+ a combined 20+% of the time. if you want to bet the sizing is probably something like 1/5 pot. cant go back and forth about this endlessly though
So, the other 80% of the time, they don't have trips, and more likely a draw or some PP we can target for value.
And I'm crazy for suggesting we target what they have 80% of the time, rather than worrying what they might have 20% of the time?
Got it.
right but they naturally fold large %ages of their range to each of your bets. if you put in 3 large bets here you filter them down to 6x+ really quickly. you force money in with overpairs when they don't have enough nutted hands (>AA) relative to the spr to combat it, its why we slowdown a ton on mono boards / str board and paired boards to a lesser degree, and also why we play defensively in srp but cbet a ton in 3/4b pots. potting here bc u want someone to fold 22 or a gutter doesn't really make any sense and ends up overplaying your hand that has a ton of equity / sdv / ev in other lines. there's just a huge difference when you're facing 4 opponents vs 1.
being beat 20+% of the time otf before any action takes place is a huge shift in polarity and stacks are too deep to just say if you got it you got it
last post here and feels a bit like i am yelling into the void
Hand is played totally fine to this point.
You should be capable of either flatting or 3bing here, but I'm not really trusting this player profile to be aggressive enough for flatting to be worth it here, particularly with the exact hand we hold. I'd put $75 on top and hope for a clean river to shove into.
I understand it's very likely that, with 'typical' ranges and 5-ways, someone has a 6. H is exploiting the perception that H should never have an 6 (unless 66) in this position, but does likely have an OP on this flop and will LOL-LLS either big cbet or more studied, small cbet or X.
With a large flop bet, H is taking advantage of the perception that such is stupid, as sub discussed, but totally in character for a LLS nit. If anyone has anything, they'll pile with inferior trips or 87, and we earn.
Great discussion.
With a large flop bet, H is taking advantage of the perception that such is stupid, as sub discussed, but totally in character for a LLS nit. If anyone has anything, they'll pile with inferior trips or 87, and we earn.
I think you’re overestimating how much repping QQ+ gets us paid off light on 966, particularly when we block half the bare 6s.
