AAKJ

For me easy stackoff even without bd-clubs, but you probably know the player pool better.

Def not an easy stackoff for me. I expect most villains to understand that you're going to have enough to stack off here with a decent amount and I think you're up against quite a strong range. On this flop you look like you basically the bottom of your range. He's gonna turn up with a lot of 2p and it's hard to find many hands you're flipping against.

Hello, flush draws? They have most incentive to bet, too.

One pair hands with a gutter. Straights or sets don't have much incentive to bet.

Also, relatively dry AA is not bottom of the range. You should have some unpaired hands.

I would fold

But are people really so bad that they bet a set or a straight here? I guess that's why I said "but you probably know the player pool better" though.

I assume this is live, so yeah. If this were a psb or just over I'd probably gii quickly but their range is gonna be tighter with 2x pot left.

I'd fold, its pretty hard for Hero to get exploited that much by a decent reg this SPR. Sb min-raise and call line is also a good indication he is going to connect with this flop decently often.

Hero is going to be an equity underdog vs any 4 random cards and want about 40% equity to stack off (ignoring calling flop lines and keeping 200 behind, which I doubt add much +ev). Also overfolding this type of spot vs live populations is even safer, when folding is unlikely to be more than a tiny error vs range in best case scenarios (where Hero is hoping to be flipping).

If we have a note about villain routinely misplaying overpairs and some other random spew in this type of spot, then maybe we can just shrug-stack off, but in that case villain is just going to be losing big against Hero range with his donk-shove anyway, since most of Hero's decisions will be easy.

I couldn’t fold fast enough

Lol, this for me too, it might be a leak though

Naw we're behind to literally everything. 40% vs a random 8 that pots it, 38% against diamonds, we're barely ahead of a pair + gutshot. If we had a PSB left then yeh I would call this off, but don't think it's close as is.

What would people do when checked to? Is everyone just checking back and trying to get to showdown?

SPR1 was mentioned and yes, it'd be a massive leak to fold.

It doesn't matter that you are behind to literally everything. You need a bit less than 40% for stack off to be +EV. It's your job to figure out if you have it. My claim still is that against a reasonable pot range Hero has it. Once villain starts potting his nuts (for unknown reasons) it might be a fold.

Would you guys pot it if he checked?

No, why do you need to pot

You are either slightly ahead of a draw or drawing dead. Do we think he does this with every flush draw ?

He has incentive to do it with every flush draw AA currently beats, right? I guess the debate is whether he understands to take advantage of it.

Against how I presume this exact game plays, I'd bet range small (20%?) when checked to. If I think villain understands how this spot works I start checking.

Just to clarify from my previous post, the main hand Hero does not want to fold against is something like KK:dd, because he will have ~50% equity vs that range.

It's easy for Hero to be exploited by SB donking at too high of a high frequency here, its just that the cost of the exploit to Hero from overfolding is relatively modest compared to the potential gains. But it's certainly not an automatic fold for me, and something like 75% fold / 25 % stack off frequency, might be a little better than 100 % fold, especially if we suspect villain is playing incorrectly.

210 wouldn't be the right size for max exploitation from villain anyway.