JJ's on Ace high flop.

Started to say no, before I realized we rivered the 3rd nuts. I guess I'd throw a green in there and see if he calls. Obv a b/f. I doubt we get called by Ax, but if his X is a club, we prob do. AxKc would probably show more aggression, so we really only lose to AxQc. I'd be happier if the 3 were a club OTF instead of the T, so he could have AxT in his hand. Still, a thin b/f is probably more value than checking back.

Given reads, yeah, I check back flop here basically all the time, and probably fold turn if it didn't bring our FD in. 65ish regs love to call from the blinds with aces, so I see no need to value cut ourselves here.

Yes it's a value bet, probably 1/3 to 1/2 psb is good. I think tight reg bets better flush draws most of the time, so Hero needs to extract value. No big deal if Hero bets into the queen flush, or folds against villain xr with the nut flush (assuming something like 0 bluffs).

I guess I should count both turn bets shouldn't I?

I would bet ~20 targeting weak A and one hand flush holdings. His Kc would've bet the river and probably Qc too.

Blinds: $2/3
Hero: UTG (J♦️ J♣️)
Villain: BB
Effective Stack: $300

Preflop ($5):
raise $12, call

Flop ($26): A♣️ 10♣️ 3♦️
check, check

Turn ($26): A♣️ 10♣️ 3♦️ 7♣️
bet $15, call

River ($56): A♣️ 10♣️ 3♦️ 7♣️ 2♣️
check

Total pot: $56

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I limp in but that's my style.

Think I might actually lean to a small flop bet. We're not quite in WA/WB land due to draws, plus our hand is vulnerable to a couple of random overcards. With no flush draw KK would probably fall more to a check, but with a flush draw and gut shot and some overs available, I think JJ might lean to a bet. Regarding being afraid of getting check/raised off our equity, we have almost no equity on this flop if behind (i.e. we're fine bet/folding it).

I guess I don't hate a call on the turn given our show of flop weakness and see what happens on the river.

I think this is an easy value bet to target a wide variety of hands (Ax, two pears, sets), plus if he doesn't call we don't have to show our hand (which always engrains an annoying "did he have anything at all?" in our opponents). I'd bet very small in an attempt to get paid off, like $15 (ETA: Realizing the pot is actually $54, I'd go like $20 to get some crying calls).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I’d bet in the range of pot size.. you’ve shown no strength post flop so there’s no chance in hell that V has a hand that beats you and he’s magically decided to check the river..

Make it look like a bluff so you have a chance of being called by a fairly weak holding, and definitely being called by a moderate club as well..

Nothing worse in these situations than firing out for $15 and getting called by the 10c who would’ve done the same for a lot more

I like a small flop bet here. Deny equity to gutshots and club draws and put Tx and small pairs in a situation where they may feel they need to toss in a call (if you make it small enough)...but mainly just taking the pot down and avoiding getting bluffed later. A check is fine too, I just prefer a bet here when you are so Ace-heavy.

I'm not so sure on the river. We're really targeting smaller flushes or something like a random 77 (I'm not convinced a tight reg is going to call Ax here). Those smaller flushes consist of hands like 88 with a club (but would that bet the turn in this way?) and turned made flushes like 98cc (which makes perfect sense, but there aren't many of them). Does he have KTo and QTo from preflop? I'm not sure we get called by worse often enough. I might check it back tbh

HU and IP I'm cbetting the flop

As played his check should mean he doesn't have a big flush, but some older tight/regs can still slow play a Kc. I'd bet something where a raise would mean he has us beat, somewhere around 35. He might even try to hero call us with AKo.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine. Maybe a tad small on the open size, but if that's the "normal" size in this game, it's fine.

FLOP - Think I could go either way between checking back and c-betting. I guess on an ace-high flop against a tight reg likely to have a lot of AX in his range, checking is probably better. But then again, there aren't many turns we'll like if he bets.

TURN - I stand corrected. This is a decent turn card, when we pick up the 3rd NFD, and with the AC on board, he's unlikely to be betting out with a draw. Seems like just a square call when he bets $15 into $24.

RIVER - I'm betting this hand, all day, like 2/3 pot, and folding if he raises. Even folding to a min-click.

Definitely betting 1/3 on this flop to get value from 10x and other flush draws. Maybe you can check at a low frequency with the Jc, but in 2/3 I don’t think it’s that important. I would probably mostly be checking this turn and then mostly folding on the river to most non club cards.

I do think against a tight player you can bet 3/4 pot on this turn and put some pressure on his weak Ax holdings with potential to bluff on the river. I find certain nitty players will easily fold a weak Ace in that scenario. You block AJ, you block some flush combos and AK/AQ should be 3betting at some frequency.

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I am thinking we go on the river around 2/3 pot or maybe even pot. If you are looking for a call I would go 2/3 pot because a pot bet here might be a bit greedy or even induce V to re-raise min-click for value or a more or a bluff to 2.5x. If he jams though you will most likely have to fold, so I would go with the better risk reward of 2/3 pot vs most likely his holdings consist of 10/9 off with a club or Ax kicker being a low club or two pair even.

On a side note how many combos of clubs would he have here that he also bet with a club. He called 12 so most likely range is the Ax low kicker club. KQo looking for a j or a another club (most likely doesn't have either card with a club here). Some suited connector or one gapper clubs (still good on the river against this).

Final verdict : 2/3 pot bet if he min clicks we still call if he 2x-3x I think we still call. If he jams back I would have to go back to your read on him but fold is 50/50 here.

I'm fine with the hand as played, although I wouldn't mind a flop bet -- I'd probably make it. On river, bet about half pot ($15 - $20) to entice him to call w/ a worse club or an A (unlikely). I don't think he's calling a bigger bet w/ worse unless you have a bluffy image, and it's still unlikely.