$22 MTT: flopping set with 99

Yeah, I think this is too passive. I'd bet bigger on the turn-- this is a good board for a polar bet size, after his check back he has something that can see showdown and you want to put pressure on that. I might even overbet the river, too. As played, I'd probably check-raise a bet that size.

I might think JT would bet the flop most of the time (if not all of the time vs. a SB call) just to clear out some equity in case you have something like 88. I'd really only be worried about AA (which makes sense to check-raise some of the time; QQ should be betting since it unblocks Ax), and I don't think AA checks all the time on this board vs. a SB flat, which should have enough suited-Broadway type hands to hit this board. KK makes sense to check flop / call turn, but I'd expect a huge river bet if villain got to the river with KK as this played out.

Generally better not to include results, as it can bias people's thinking, even when they try not to let it.

vs. a button raise you could probably 3-bet this a lot of the time, too, unless we're really late in the tournament (which does not seem to be the case with the table's overall stack depths, but if we're at the point where there's like 13-14 left and average stack is 20BB and you both have 50, playing cautiously makes more sense).

The early stages are when you want to push value and marginal edges more often and harder.

Thanks for your analysis Nath. Ya I think like a min check/raise would have been nice on the river. Get value but not scare him off.

Thinking about it JT would likely have bet with Q and 9 on the flop so that gives me less reason to fear that hand.

I just got back to playing poker after some months off, so the game can definitely put my thoughts in a spin at times.

Not much point in checking river if it’s not to check raise.
If he has an over set then so be it. He raised button, if he’s halfway competent he has a pretty wide range which might include 10J but again, so be it.

Make it 18BB

I don't mind the call with 99 pre-flop. I tend to 3-bet against widish BTN raises but I also call against tightish raises and if I don't know I base it on age...

Flop is good too.

Turn I would likely bet more because there are a bunch of gutters that won't call a 4 bb size bet.

On the river I would make a pot sized bet. It will look polarizing so you can have a monster (like your set) or a missed flush draw. I'm guessing you would have gotten called by 2 pair. I don't hate your check call because Villain can have hit a straight. Also, nobody really c/r bluffs on the river so KQ would likely fold anyway (OK the truly great players sometimes c/r bluff all in at final tables but I have rarely seen a river c/r bluff --- and I have done it basically once in my life and yes it worked).

I'm surprised that Villain didn't c-bet the flop. If you c/r he can fold and if you just call he can check back the turn.

Really? 2PTK seems like exactly the kind of hand you'd want to check back with, especially against an SB flat, which is going to be tighter than a BB defend and have a higher percentage of hands that hit this board. Bet/folding KQ on this flop doesn't seem very sound, and we don't want to go for three streets of value with it, either. Checking back seems the best way to keep SB's range wide and to get more value from weaker made hands down the line.

The reason I would cbet is that the flop smashes the pre-flop raiser's range and not particularly the call by the SB. The SB can have a lot of gutter draws which would likely fold to a 60% pot cbet.

The other reason I would cbet is that I would check back the turn and then see what happens on the river. If SB calls the flop cbet on a draw and the draws don't hit then I would call a river bet.

I know many people have advocated for a larger flop bet but another option is to lead turn small as you did and then go polarized on the river. Two busted flush draws in your bluffing range and villain has lots of 2P combos on that board that won't fold to a large river bet.

Because SB didn't 3-bet pre-flop they won't have many Ax hands. Some but not nearly as many as we could have. So we win a lot of the time by cbetting. SB will sometimes call with gutters especially with BDFD and that will usually win us chips by cbetting.

Because of AQ on the flop SB will not c/r much with flush draws or even combo draws, they will usually just call. So if SB does c/r (which should happen this hand with 99) its a fairly easy fold. That is likely what would have happened here and we would have lost about 4 bb's not the 8 that Villain lost. But it would have been a lot worse as played if SB had made it 4 bb's on the turn and then 8 bb's on the river because we are basically calling when we improve to 2 pair in case SB had a flush draw and missed.

A lot of SB hands that we are ahead of will call the flop bet including flush draws, straight draws and some gutters especially those with BDFD. We would also be ahead of hands that call like QJ/QT/K9/T9/J9/98/etc. Now Villain may fold those hands sometimes but sometimes they will call especially with a BDFD.

I probably don't fold when a K hits the river because we improved so much but it could depend on the river bet size from the SB. In this case SB checked the river so its a tough spot. I probably don't check back but would make a small blocking bet size like 3 bb's or maybe a little less.