Is this a straightforward bluff?
PokerStars - €0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
ACTION.GIO (BTN): 144 BB (VPIP: 34.25, PFR: 28.77, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 78)
VE SCAVES (SB): 13 BB (VPIP: 24.56, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
Vecissitude (BB): 277.5 BB
BERENDSOHN1833 (UTG): 160.5 BB (VPIP: 21.65, PFR: 13.07, 3Bet Preflop: 0.53, Hands: 1,181)
BURIO248 (CO): 95 BB (VPIP: 1.05, PFR: 0.10, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6,441)
VE SCAVES posts SB 0.5 BB, Vecissitude posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Vecissitude has A♠ J♠
fold, fold, ACTION.GIO raises to 3 BB, fold, Vecissitude raises to 11 BB, ACTION.GIO calls 8 BB
Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠ 9♦ 6♥
Vecissitude bets 16 BB, ACTION.GIO calls 16 BB
Turn: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Vecissitude bets 33 BB, ACTION.GIO calls 33 BB
River: (120.5 BB, 2 players) 4♦
Vecissitude bets 217.5 BB and is all-in
Mostly studying flop play, so have no idea what I am doing here. But I figure that need to have a few bluffs in 3bet pots and I don't think it gets better than this for a XXX bluff. I think it's standard but maybe I am wrong. V is for sure playing too many hands pre and he has a picture of Dwan in portrait. I am not kidding this is actually a huge tell in that he will try to copy his game and play overly aggressive. Caught a huge bluff other day from a guy with a name of durrrrrr.
8 Replies
I would give up river. In general high flush draws are bad river bluffs, so you should bluff them only on rivers that are really good for you or vs opponents that fold way too much.
Punt. Average micro player will have too many OPs by the river.
And they'll call all of them. Even 9x
Punt. Average micro player will have too many OPs by the river.
And they'll call all of them. Even 9x
OPs?
What is a good candidate for a bluff on river then? And what do I triple for value on this runout? A4s, 66, 99, 44. Granted I don't have huge value a lot of the time, but I will have some sets that want fat value, and I can't think of a better bluff than AJs other than maybe ATs since that would block TT which is a hand he might feel comfortable bluff-catching with.
Overpairs
No bluffs. What do you think mr tom dwan aggro fish 2nl call call brick river is going to fold? is a better question.
I would not be too surprised if you had the best hand here at least sometimes, and if you check maybe they will do the mistake of not bluffing.
I guess A5 heart or diamond make good bluffs since you do not block the spade draw for your opponent. I believe QJs is used also as it blocks the autocall on this board, JJ and QQ (edit: mhhh, in fact this is surely wrong as CO is supposed to 4bet QQ and JJ very often)
Nice bet size on the flop, indeed it seems you are studying, many microstakes players auto 1/3 pot all textures.
If IP is ever balanced JTs, KJs and KTs would be better candidates. I'd mainly be concerned about having a T. AJss are two cards we'd rather IP has and with narrow ranges on 3bp triple barrel rivers blockers become 'meaningful'
Overpairs
No bluffs. What do you think mr tom dwan aggro fish 2nl call call brick river is going to fold? is a better question.
33,55,77,88, maybe even TT.
I get what you are saying, in theory I am only putting pressure on TT and some AK that call at small frequency and KQs. So I see how narrow the ranges are defined in theory. But I legit think he gets to river with all his small pocket pairs.
Not to mention some of these loose aggro guys will literally float anything sometimes just waiting for a check to put pressure on you. I would not put too much weight on it but I would weigh him ever so slightly on having some real trash as well.
I would not be too surprised if you had the best hand here at least sometimes, and if you check maybe they will do the mistake of not bluffing.
I guess A5 heart or diamond make good bluffs since you do not block the spade draw for your opponent. I believe QJs is used also as it blocks the autocall on this board, JJ and QQ (edit: mhhh, in fact this is surely wrong as CO is supposed to 4bet QQ and JJ very often)
Nice bet size on the flop, indeed it seems you are studying, many microstakes players au
Well it's BTN v SB at a little over 100b, so he is supposed to 4bet TT but in practice everyone is calling that hand. So in theory his range as a whole is really struggling on this board. Going to run a sim and see what it spits out for this one; I am interested to see how solver figures out the river for BTN here but pretty sure he is never supposed to get here.
