35BB KQo raise UTG+1 vs HJ. AKx flop
We have 70BB, we raise x4 from UTG+1.
HJ calls with the shorter stack.
On the AK5r we bet quarter pot, villain calls.
river is another rainbow x, a 9, we check, villain bets half pot.
What does 2p2 do?
11 Replies
Who do we raise 4x? In fact this might be one of the worst hands to open with oversized sizing, as it makes sure that Villains will not have any of the hands we dominate...
Who do we raise 4x? In fact this might be one of the worst hands to open with oversized sizing, as it makes sure that Villains will not have any of the hands we dominate...
Might have been a slight misadaptation from earlier levels and cash, but also early position, antes, possibly some 70bb stacks, maybe lots of overcalling in previous hands. Is this a nitpick to a avoid the actual hard spot or am I off by a lot?
How much would you raise to, assuming the average stack is closer to 35bb.
Does that change if we assume the avg stack is closer to 70?
At average stack of 35BB, the raise size should be 2-2.2 max. With effective stacks of 100BB, I do use a bigger size, but I never go to 4x.
On the hand...I guess we can bet range here, and your sizing would make sense. I'd prefer a larger bet size with a more polarized range. KQ isn't really a great betting hand. We can get some value from lesser kings, and Pocket pairs, but we can get that value later. We certainly can't expect to bet 3 times and be good.
As played, seems like a fold on the turn. Villain has a lot of Ax he called the flop with, and is now betting. Are you hoping he is turning 77 into a bluff? Value betting a worse K?
At average stack of 35BB, the raise size should be 2-2.2 max. With effective stacks of 100BB, I do use a bigger size, but I never go to 4x.
On the hand...I guess we can bet range here, and your sizing would make sense. I'd prefer a larger bet size with a more polarized range. KQ isn't really a great betting hand. We can get some value from lesser kings, and Pocket pairs, but we can get that value later. We certainly can't expect to bet 3 times and be good.
As played, seems like a fold on th
Yeah I folded, same logic, lots of Ax. I think I flipped to call 25% of the time.
But solver seems to suggest we should call here. Which isn't too crazy, we have 1 in 5 pot odds to call.
https://chat.novasolver.com/#/chat/6rc1v...
I think the solver might have looser ranges for villain since it probably assumes a smaller raise size. But that should be counteracted by being more pot committed.
Yeah, I saw this was mostly a solver call. That requires Villain to be finding all his gut shot broadway floats as turn bluffs. If you are against someone who can find those, this will be an ok call, but not exactly printing.
In real life, I'd just fold here.
Yeah, I saw this was mostly a solver call. That requires Villain to be finding all his gut shot broadway floats as turn bluffs. If you are against someone who can find those, this will be an ok call, but not exactly printing.
In real life, I'd just fold here.
That question really depends on the tournament stakes and any opponent read, which we don't have here. But I think our line makes it more likely for opponent to take this line with those floats, since 1/4 pot is a small price to pay to see if you can get there or steal it away later.
Pre-flop my bet sizing is based on effective stack size at the time I am betting. If it is 70 bb's then I will typically make it about 2.5x. If it is 35 bb's I will typically make it 2.1x
The flop sizing is off because that flop nails our range. I am betting basically 67% pot. That will get some gutters to fold.
I don't see what happened on the turn. Did it go check check (if so I would blocking bet like 25% pot on the river and fold to a raise)? Or did we bet on the turn and get called again (now I am probably folding on the river)? Or did you mistype and it wasn't the river that Villain bets half pot but the turn (I think I fold here but its a toss up spot because our flop bet sizing was so small it looks like we have a PP).
The other thing is to know what Villain's stack size is. By the turn the pot size is about 15 bb's. So if Villain started with 35 bb's (which may be what you meant in the Title) then his turn bet would be roughly 25% effective stack and it would mean Villain would have just over half pot on the river. Which basically means Villain is going to jam the river if we call the turn . That is the other reason to fold on the turn.
Pre-flop my bet sizing is based on effective stack size at the time I am betting. If it is 70 bb's then I will typically make it about 2.5x. If it is 35 bb's I will typically make it 2.1x
The flop sizing is off because that flop nails our range. I am betting basically 67% pot. That will get some gutters to fold.
I don't see what happened on the turn. Did it go check check (if so I would blocking bet like 25% pot on the river and fold to a raise)? Or did we bet on the turn and get called ag
Good attention to detail here:
Hand didn't get to river, OP has a typo.
We had 70BB, villain had 35BB.
Turn bet being 25% of his stack is probably correct. I recall it looking like he was setting it up to jam river for pot.
Yeah, I saw this was mostly a solver call. That requires Villain to be finding all his gut shot broadway floats as turn bluffs. If you are against someone who can find those, this will be an ok call, but not exactly printing.
In real life, I'd just fold here.
I'll also add that the 4x preflop raise (which we really shouldn't do-- 2-2.3x is correct here; I'd size smaller the later we are in the tournament and the shorter other opponents, especially the BB, are) probably thins out a lot of the gutshot floats we'd be hoping to be up against preflop, or at least will weigh the range more heavily to good Ax hands. I don't know if anyone is putting in more than 10% of their stack pre with, say, QTs here (and almost certainly not any of the offsuit ones).
I'd make a standard preflop raise and probably check-call this flop if they bet. From there, it depends.
The flop sizing is off because that flop nails our range. I am betting basically 67% pot. That will get some gutters to fold.
I'm unclear, as I was with the 99 hand, why you want to choose a bet size that folds out hands with 10% equity but will not fold out the hands that beat us. The only merit I can see is that we can more easily check-fold the turn, but I suspect that's less important than maximizing value against our opponent's range (and losing the least when we're beaten).
I'll also add that the 4x preflop raise (which we really shouldn't do-- 2-2.3x is correct here; I'd size smaller the later we are in the tournament and the shorter other opponents, especially the BB, are) probably thins out a lot of the gutshot floats we'd be hoping to be up against preflop, or at least will weigh the range more heavily to good Ax hands. I don't know if anyone is putting in more than 10% of their stack pre with, say, QTs here (and almost certainly not any of the offsuit ones).
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I choose to cbet HU the same amounts based on how the flop hits my range. So an AKx flop I will typically bet about 2/3 pot regardless of my hand because our range smashed the flop. If I bet small because I have KQ or check but I bet large when I have AK its like I am telegraphing my holding. I am fine if somebody calls with a gutter when I bet large. I am also fine if they fold. It is a tricky situation on the turn if they call my flop bet but because I am an OMC I will typically check/fold. If I am up against a young GTO/Solver guy I may decide to bet the turn or check call down because they are capable of calling the flop to see what happens on the turn. Also it depends on what the turn is. If it is a J, T, or 5 my check looks reasonable no matter what I have and a K or Q will lead me to bet the turn. Even an A may be good for me.
On flops like K75 I will typically cbet 1/3 pot (or basically my pre-flop bet size). On flops like 865 that is not a rainbow I will typically check HU OOP even if I have 88 or 66.
OK, that makes sense. Betting based on your range interaction with the board is sound.
I'd have to think about what I'd do here because I'm not sure I'd take any line 100% of the time. Running an approximate spot through the solver (40BB, UTG8 / HJ, chipEV) shows us b25 82% of the time and checking 18% of the time. We check our pocket pairs 99+ (including AA/KK) most often-- and interestingly, K8s of spades checks a lot more often than the K8s hands with backdoor flush draws, but for the other KXs hands, the check/bet ratio is about the same among them whichever suit we have.
And it also says after B25/call that KQo is almost always another B25 on the turn, and we just fold if raised. (AK mostly mixes small and big bets, as do our gutshots and Q9s. Our one-pair Ax hands mostly bet small again. 55 always bets big, as does 99 the times we bet it on the flop.) When we check, villain's B50 range includes best aces and two pair as well as some percentage of gutshot bluffs. KQo is almost a pure call there.
That said, this is also with a standard open at this stack depth, not a 4x open. I do think that narrows villain's range quite a bit, which probably makes it more likely that they have a good Ax here. You really should never open that big in a tournament.
