Flopping two pair heads-up, and V calls big check-raise.
2/3/5 NL
Effect stacks $800.
Villain is a 20's Asian guy, young-looking and also has a demeanor that suggests his cardroom experience is limited. He is only 2 or 3 orbits into this game, but seems comfortable with actual game play. He is not limping, is open raising.
H's table image is probably tight aggressive, V has seen H 3-bet-squeeze pre-flop twice, once from the BB, and once as an utg limp-reraise. In the 1st hand all 4 opponents folded to the 3-bet, and in the 2nd hand 3 folds were induced.
V opens $20 on the button.
H in BB calls with QhJc.
($36) Qd Js 7h
H checks.
V bets $20.
H raises $120. (H realizes as the chips go out that he wanted to go smaller.)
V calls.
($276) Kc
H checks.
V bets $100.
H calls.
($476) Qd Js 7h Kd 4c
H checks.
V bets $300.
H???
What should the flop check-raise amount have been... $80-$100?
QJo is a call from the BB preflop, right?
I think we can call or 3bet QJo from the bb against a 4x button open. Fold is actually fine too depending on opponent/rake.
Flop c/r can be like 80-100 yes. Can also call and c/r some turns.
AP turn is not a great card for us. I agree with c/c.
River he should be polarized and he doesn’t have many bluffs. I probably fold and feel gross.
2/3/5 NL
Effect stacks $800.
Villain is a 20's Asian guy, young-looking and also has a demeanor that suggests his cardroom experience is limited. He is only 2 or 3 orbits into this game, but seems comfortable with actual game play. He is not limping, is open raising.
H's table image is probably tight aggressive, V has seen H 3-bet-squeeze pre-flop twice, once from the BB, and once as an utg limp-reraise. In the 1st hand all 4 opponents folded to the 3-bet, and in the 2nd hand 3 folds were induced
PRE - seems fine. I might 3B if I think BTN is capable of being out of line.
FLOP - I think your check raise size is fine. If anything, I could see going larger.
TURN - Would prefer a small 1/2 pot barrel and a fold to a raise. We're inducing him to bet when we check. Can't fold. Can't raise. Can only call.
RIVER - it's a $hlt spot. We need to be good here around 40% of the time to call. I wouldn't think we are, unless he's got KT.
raise pre (or fold)
smaller otf
fold turn, KQ is the bottom of Vs range
Flop - I'd probably raise $80-100
Turn - I'd still bet even though K would improve villain's range. You might still be ahead of AQ, AJ, QT etc and it's hard to see how strong villain's range is by checking
River - folding, don't think a pair is betting 75% pot bet. His bluffs can be KT but that would probably check. Don't think people are turning AQ, AJ into bluff in low stakes live poker.
What's the rake? Are there 3 blinds after the button?
PRE - seems fine. I might 3B if I think BTN is capable of being out of line.
FLOP - I think your check raise size is fine. If anything, I could see going larger.
TURN - Would prefer a small 1/2 pot barrel and a fold to a raise. We're inducing him to bet when we check. Can't fold. Can't raise. Can only call.
RIVER - it's a $hlt spot. We need to be good here around 40% of the time to call. I wouldn't think we are, unless he's got KT.
How do we need to be good 40% odds the time? If he bets pot you need to be good 33% of the time and he is betting less than pot.
We can beat value on the turn but not on the river. Folding turn is a big mistake imo. He will check back hands like KT and AK on the river.
We check raised pretty big, like too big, on the flop. Villains not going to have AK often, if ever. This is probably just a fold, not much we beat. And we certainly do not beat any of his value range.
Wow, y'alls game plays pretty different than mine.
I call.
($36) Qd Js 7h
H checks.
V bets $20.
H raises $120. (H realizes as the chips go out that he wanted to go smaller.)
V calls.
Estimate for Villain's range:
- Pocket Pairs: 77, JJ-AA but discount the sets to ~1 combo due Hero's hand and Villain not 3-betting on the flop.
- TP+: AQ, KQ, QJ, maybe QT
- Draws: T9, KT
($276) Kc
H checks.
V bets $100.
H calls.
I estimate Villain's range as:
- Pocket Pairs stay the same: 77, JJ-AA but discount the sets to ~1 combo due Hero's hand and Villain not 3-betting on the flop.
- TP+ narrows: KQ, QJ (eliminate AQ and QT)
- Draws are almost all gone as T9 got there and KT likely takes a free card.
($476) Qd Js 7h Kd 4c
H checks.
V bets $300.
H???
I estimate Villain's range as:
- Pocket Pairs stay the same: 77, JJ-AA but discount the sets to ~1 combo due Hero's hand and Villain not 3-betting on the flop. Discount AA as the pot is getting too big for them.
- TP+ narrows: KQ, QJ (eliminate AQ and QT)
- Straight: T9
- "busted" draw: KT is just top pair... V has no reason to bet this. I eliminate KT from the range.
Overall, Hero beats very little of Villain's range. Villain's unlikely to fold.
Hero should fold.
There is a skill curve here where either villain is clueless and/or maniacal, or played the hand really well and is creative. AK and KT are too strong to be turning into bluffs and too weak to value bet. The real bluffs are going to be weird JT type hands that are just very unlikely.
Unless we know villain to be clueless, maniacal, or just really aggressive and creative, I think river is just a fold.
Solver is actually mixing folds on both turn and river, and we should know that people bluff less than solver. The K is unbelievably bad for us.
100 seems like a good flop check raise size.
Preflop:
Calling QJo in the BB against a $20 button open is fine. It’s too weak to 3-bet but plays well postflop.
Flop:
Your check-raise to $120 is too big for a $36 pot. $80–$100 would get the job done—fold out air and weaker hands while still getting value from Qx, Jx, and draws without isolating yourself against stronger hands.
Turn:
The Kc isn’t great for your hand, improving a lot of villain’s range like KQ or sets. Check-call is fine since the $100 bet feels like a test or small value bet.
River:
The $300 bet looks value-heavy. After the flop and turn action, villain likely has sets, KQ, or AQ. Hard to imagine enough bluffs here, so folding is probably best.
Final note: Flop raise to $80–$100 would’ve kept things under control. Let us know what happened!
How do we need to be good 40% odds the time? If he bets pot you need to be good 33% of the time and he is betting less than pot.
Well, obviously I suck at remembering how to do pot odds.
It seems I forgot to add the $300 we have to call to the full pot amount. I just divided $300 / $776 and got around 39%. Doing the math correctly this time, it's 28%.
I still don't think it's a call, but that does make it closer, I guess.
Regarding the flop x/r size - I used to do the same as everyone else, and go 3x-5x here.
Then I started watching the Hungry Horse videos, and saw Marc talk about x/r'ing 6x-10x, explaining that whatever V is folding to the x/r, he's folding to 3x-5x, but his continue range isn't likely folding even if we go huge.
Looking at spots like this, I believe he's right. Hero raised 6x, and V called.
V isn't folding AA, KK, AQ, KQ, KT, and maybe not even AJ to a larger raise. They're going to call once, hoping we check turn, and probably fold when we barrel on a brick. Meanwhile, 88-TT, JT, and probably even AK are most likely going to fold to a 3x raise.
There are few if any combos that are going to be all that elastic here.
Because I just called out of the BB preflop (so I'm not likely holding JJ/QQ), I think V would 3-bet his sets on the flop, and/or bet big on the turn after my check.
When he called my big check-raise on the flop, I imagined his range to be heavy with AA, KK, AQ, KQ. I didn't give QJ enough thought, though there are 4 combos.
Because he bet small on the turn, I did not think he had T9.
I didn't think he would bet AQ on the river, and it was hard to imagine him calling the flop bet with AK, though I suppose AKs could call flop. KT is not going to bet big on the river.
On the river, I thought his likely hands were KK, AA, KQ.
KK 3 combos
AA 6 combos
KQ 6 combos
Pot odds on the river were 2.6:1 to call, 28% equity needed. (2/3/5 blinds are on B, SB, BB with total rake $7)
I asked him, "Do you have pocket kings? Or pocket Aces? Maybe king queen...probably not." I didn't get an obvious read on him, but I called.
Spoiler
He had AA
Estimate for Villain's range:
- Pocket Pairs: 77, JJ-AA but discount the sets to ~1 combo due Hero's hand and Villain not 3-betting on the flop.
- TP+: AQ, KQ, QJ, maybe QT
- Draws: T9, KT
I estimate Villain's range as:
- Pocket Pairs stay the same: 77, JJ-AA but discount the sets to ~1 combo due Hero's hand and Villain not 3-betting on the flop.
- TP+ narrows: KQ, QJ (eliminate AQ and QT)
- Draws are almost all gone as T9 got there and KT likely takes a free card.
I estimate Villain's range as:
- Pocke
I’m just not folding. Pay off mode engaged.
...
Because he bet small on the turn, I did not think he had T9.
...
On the river, I thought his likely hands were KK, AA, KQ.
KK 3 combos
AA 6 combos
KQ 6 combos
Spoiler
He had AA
I'm surprised that Villain is betting despite the K coming on the turn.
Overall, I *think* that discounting AA to maybe 1 or 2 combos is still the right thing to do and thus a fold is still correct, though it wouldn't take much to change my mind.
Yes, I think this is a non-standard villain, with him ~value~ betting AA on the river.
The small turn bet was a tell on the strength of his hand, like he was testing the waters.
turn downbet is a sizing tell to call the river. when you didnt raise the turn (as you shouldnt) he assumed you were capped OTR at one pair and you would pay off with Qx or KT that semibluffed the flop.
I've been working on a tool that predicts a players range, and I tested it out on this hand for fun.
The villains top 5 hand combos in their range are:
AA: 7.7%
ATo: 6.1%
AKo: 6.1%
QQ: 5%
T9o: 3.8%
Also, you might find it interesting that my tool thinks you made a good call on the river.
You were getting about 28% pot odds on your river call, and my tool estimates that villain had an overpair or worse about 56.8% of the time! So folding here is probably a huge mistake.
Of course that's just an estimate, but thought you might find it interesting 😀 It seems to go against what a lot of other people's hand analysis is suggesting (which is to fold).
Why is KK not in the top 5? It seems like it should be likelier than QQ...
I've been working on a tool that predicts a players range, and I tested it out on this hand for fun.
The villains top 5 hand combos in their range are:
AA: 7.7%
ATo: 6.1%
AKo: 6.1%
QQ: 5%
T9o: 3.8%
Also, you might find it interesting that my tool thinks you made a good call on the river.
You were getting about 28% pot odds on your river call, and my tool estimates that villain had an overpair or worse about 56.8% of the time! So folding here is probably a huge mistake.
Of course that's just an estimate
Pre fine.
My standard OTF is $80.
Turn good.
River seems close. 3 BW boards are underbluffed, but I'm not surprised if he's vbetting worse two pair and I'm disinclined to fold mid-two pair against described player.
I got to ask if your going to call a turn bet here if he does one why not be the one to barrel again instead of check and if he re-raises I think you already know before the river your screwed. I think the flop check raise was great though I may have done more to be honest but it wasn't a bad amount. You want to punish the draw. Another bet on the turn I think he will most certainly pump the breaks and re-evaluate. Then even if you check the river because he calls the turn I don't think he will donate chips believing your trapping him to bet your made hand.
