Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
guys you really think this ceasefire is going to hold lol?
Man the data isn't here anymore but will be later.
Care to wait? Can we call it in 24 months, income for the bottom half of earners and inflation? Those are numbers that will be published, would you agree to check them to determine if this prediction was right or not?
Krugman prediction rate of success isn't that great. But it doesn't matter, it's a testable prediction
The economic data on mass exportations of illegal immigrants is crystal clear. And as I said, attack the messenger. Krugman has actually been correct more often than not, but I'm not here to debate that.
Look, I'm old enough to have seen this bad movie many times over. This isn't some new playbook, it's just on steroids with decaying democracy under it. Trying to get people out of the conservative vs. liberal BS culture war brainwashing, and just evaluate the quality of the idea / policy, is nearly impossible. The economists I've longed listened to have not been wrong to this point in my life. What they've said would happen, has happened many times over, so I expect nothing different.
But as I've said... let's all hope I'm dead fkn wrong, and so are they. The problem to me is I used to hold on to hope that when conservatives saw the effects of the policy, they'd learn and change their vote... but that never happened. And now we live in an alternate reality MAGA world, where every problem team Trump does will be spun to be Democrats fault, and alternate false realities will be constructed about their great accomplishments. There's no hope people will wise up now.
Look at some recent polling as an example. The, "Were you better off 4 years ago poll?", where Republicans overwhelmingly said no to this before the election. Now.... magically it's polling as a yes. Trump has already turned the economy around, and only because he was elected. What magical powers this guy has.
The economic data on mass exportations of illegal immigrants is crystal clear. And as I said, attack the messenger. Krugman has actually been correct more often than not, but I'm not here to debate that.
Look, I'm old enough to have seen this bad movie many times over. This isn't some new playbook, it's just on steroids with decaying democracy under it. Trying to get people out of the conservative vs. liberal BS culture war brainwashing, and just evaluate the quality of the idea / policy, is ne
the economic data on mass deportation of illegals is clear? per Capita GDP goes where, with mass deportation of illegals?
I am not attacking the messenger, I am saying we can agree now on some data points in the future to check to verify the prediction.
if per Capita GDP and inflation don't go in disaster directions (big drop for GDP per Capita , big increase in inflation) would you agree that you don't have any ****ing alclue at all on macroeconomics and should never again discuss the topic?
if inflation goes up to 6% or more you following mass deportations, or GDP per Capita goes down 2% or more, I would admit I have no ****ing clue about macro.
would you if inflation doesn't go over 4% Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025 or if GDP per Capita stays above +0%?
btw if you don't understand how important expectations are for investment in the real economy and for consumption, you really have no clue about macroeconomics.
yes, believing things are going to turn around in the future DOES MATERIALLY AFFECT THE PRESENT economically
its essentially the same deal that Hamas agreed to in May that was rugpulled by the genocidal Dems and Bibi. its been widely reported by Western and Israeli media that pressure from Trump is what got the job done.
Biden and his team should get no credit and really should be tried and imprisoned for their crimes. never thought I would see a president worse than Bush but here we are.
Bro, you're brainwashed.
How do you guys not understand how completely and utterly brainwashed you are? You think there's some false equivalency? All democrats are equally brainwashed?
I wonder why you're parroting a talking point... hmm, could it be this tweet from Trump:
“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies,” Trump wrote on social media. “I am thrilled American and Israeli hostages will be returning home to be reunited with their families and loved ones.”
To ANY intelligent person, this is a red flag. Geez... why do I even bother... it's pointless... you won't get it.
No, of course not... and take a wild guess who will break it? It's the same people who have broken every previous one, and it rhymes with momas...
You should get your stories straight with the rest of the Zionists. In the other thread they are readily admitting that the slaughter will continue no matter what after the hostages are returned.
so why are you celebrating it happening and bragging it was Biden (same question to the others, why are they bragging it was Trump?)
I'm not... I was pointing out that Trump claiming all credit, was fkn stupid and a lie... and I'm not engaging w/ your pointless and mindless posts.
No, ty.
Biden was clearly impeding the cease fire and could have stopped it at any time. If Kamala won then the slaughter would have continued for months more at least.
the economic data on mass deportation of illegals is clear? per Capita GDP goes where, with mass deportation of illegals?
I am not attacking the messenger, I am saying we can agree now on some data points in the future to check to verify the prediction.
if per Capita GDP and inflation don't go in disaster directions (big drop for GDP per Capita , big increase in inflation) would you agree that you don't have any ****ing alclue at all on macroeconomics and should never again discuss the topic?
if in
BRAINWASHED.
Trump probably saved more life than any other president of our lifetimes.
You should get your stories straight with the rest of the Zionists. In the other thread they are readily admitting that the slaughter will continue no matter what after the hostages are returned.
tbh I am HOPING they continue killing Hamas terrorists the minute after the hostages are released (if it happens), I can't "admit" anything as I don't decide anything in Israel lol
It's a pointless discussion.
Why would any intelligent person think Trump would handle the economy, any better than he handled covid-19? USA, the richest and most resourceful country in the world, had the second-worst response to covid in the world, because a lack of planning, disinformation, and intentionally large loopholes in the economic recovery policies written. The only thing they semi got right was expediating the vaccines.
It doesn't help that Trump is fkn stupid, and that the American people struggle to understand reality TV from reality, or WWE from real wrestling.
Intelligent people are sitting here watching a reality show right now... very much the same as the Apprentice, where a broke, ex-billionaire and failed businessmen is put into a room judging other people's business ideas, and made to look like he knows what he's doing. You do know the producers on that show had to turn his dump of an office into something presentable? Have you even read what the producers of that show have said about Trump?
I'm guessing not.
Btw for someone who has talked so much about meritocracy, and the value of hard work, you sure spend a lot of fkn time posting on here. You working hard? I'm going to laugh if you're some kind of Italian public assistance program... are you?
I understand you have severe difficulties in being anchored to reality but you reported a testable prediction: that mass deportations hurt Americans outside of the very rich.
we can test those predictions (if mass deportations happen), and we could set numbers now that if they happen prove you (and Krugman) right, or wrong, objectively.
you are refusing to do that because you don't care about reality.
what's fairly obvious, like it happened (and is happened) with Milei, is that you guys are actually terrified Trump policies might work (or just not have any big negative impact).
because in case mass deportations happen and life for everyone not deported is decent anyway, you would be proven utterly wrong, liars or terrible at macro (or both).
if, god forbids, mass deportations happen and crimes goes down as a result, or housing price pressures for poor people go down, your entire political identity and narrative collapses forever.
you are terrified those policies might not be as disastrous as you claimed shouting 24/7 from your leftist media.
same as leftists in Europe are terrified at any good economic data coming out of Argentina, having proof beyond reasonable doubt that heavy cuts to public expenses can be beneficial for people is terrible for people whose whole identity is about ever-increasing state expenditure
Friendly reminder that Biden deported more people than Trump
what's fairly obvious, like it happened (and is happened) with Milei, is that you guys are actually terrified Trump policies might work (or just not have any big negative impact).
because in case mass deportations happen and life for everyone not deported is decent anyway, you would be proven utterly wrong, liars or terrible at macro (or both).
if, god forbids, mass deportations happen and crimes goes down as a result, or housing price pressures for poor people go down, your entire political ident
You're filled w/ really bad information.... because you're brainwashed.
Home prices won't come down if you do mass deportations.... who do you think builds the homes in America kid?
Violent crime is down and is at a 50 year low. The only thing that's up, is petty theft... hmm, wonder why. Oh, it's liberals being soft on crime, not horrible economic policy that has pushed people to steal to make ends meet. Just punish people more, that's the answer!
I'll say this over and over... I don't care where an idea comes from, it just needs to be a good idea. I've lived 51 years, and none of those have included good Republican economic policy for the working class. It's the opposite, everything has been skewed to do the bidding of the oligarchs in our country, while people with scarcity mindset fight over the crumbs, blaming each other for why their life has become unaffordable.
This has nothing to do w/ media, and everything to do w/ economic analysis... nearly ALL economist, even the most conservative amongst us, believe these are disastrous economic policies being proposed by Trump. Neither you or I are an economist, so our opinions are worth exactly sht.
But never fear... the genius Trump has got it all worked out in that Adderall filled brain.
I think the civil rights act, and the Americans with disability acts, exist because that was the will of Congress and have no bearing in the constitution.
I
What do you mean by no bearing in the constitution? I will rephrase: was the Civil Rights Act put into law to enforce the equal protection clause against private actors?
When a crisis has been thrust upon you, I often would agree. But this isn't that. Greenland isn't some sort of hotspot that Trump got saddled with. He just started talking about Greenland becoming part of the U.S. That's the only reason he is being asked about use of military force in Greenland.
FWIW, for negotiating purposes, I would attach virtually no weight to the possibility of Trump seizing Greenland by force if I were Denmark or the people of Greenland.
not least because they dont need to. Nor the threat of it
The greenland issue hasn't come from trump. It's existed since WW2 and only been a slow burner because we hadn't had global warming. USA will expend their presence militarily, politcally and economically very significantly. I wouldn't bet against Greenland deciding it's future is with the usa at some point. The main alternative is joinng the EU but I'm not sure that's favorite
I understand you have severe difficulties in being anchored to reality but you reported a testable prediction: that mass deportations hurt Americans outside of the very rich.
we can test those predictions (if mass deportations happen), and we could set numbers now that if they happen prove you (and Krugman) right, or wrong, objectively.
you are refusing to do that because you don't care about reality.
what's fairly obvious, like it happened (and is happened) with Milei, is that you guys are actually terrified Trump policies might work (or just not have any big negative impact).
because in case mass deportations happen and life for everyone not deported is decent anyway, you would be proven utterly wrong, liars or terrible at macro (or both).
if, god forbids, mass deportations happen and crimes goes down as a result, or housing price pressures for poor people go down, your entire political ident
this is why despite disagreeing with a lot of lucioms ideology, he's a major net positive here as he's always grounded in fact based discussion
What do you mean by no bearing in the constitution? I will rephrase: was the Civil Rights Act put into law to enforce the equal protection clause against private actors?
the part of the civil rights act pertaining to public (state) discrimination, yes.
the part pertaining to private hiring, and public accomodations (when public means open to the public, not owned/operated by the public) absolutely no.
they used the commerce clause (one the biggest abuses of it) to justify title II and title VII of the civil right act. Explicitly, it's in the text of the law itself.
the 14a doesn't "emanate" toward private interests, doesn't in the slightest implies there is any right not to be discriminated against in any form by private agents. because in general the constitution is silent about what other people can or cannot do to you. it's about what government can't do to you and in a few cases about what it is obliged to do for you.
bc Israel was fully supported by the USA in this genocide. they could not have done any of this without the full endorsement and active involvement of the ruling Democrat regime.
I'm not convinced that anything short of the U.S. threatening military action against Israel (which was never going to happen) would have deterred Israel from doing exactly what it did. This isn't the 1950s. At the time of the October 7 attack, Israel had more than enough military firepower on hand to devastate Gaza.
You might well think that's what the U.S. should have done. But I think that's what would have been required.
jijou when you think about it, it's abundantly clear that CRA title vii is based on the commerce clause and not on the 14a otherwise they wouldn't have needed to define the size of 15 employees minimum to determine the employer "affects commerce" would they?
they would have banned anyone from discriminating in hiring house help as well (and everything like that) but they couldn't, they wanted the commerce clause to hold
the part of the civil rights act pertaining to public (state) discrimination, yes.
the part pertaining to private hiring, and public accomodations (when public means open to the public, not owned/operated by the public) absolutely no.
they used the commerce clause (one the biggest abuses of it) to justify title II and title VII of the civil right act. Explicitly, it's in the text of the law itself.
the 14a doesn't "emanate" toward private interests, doesn't in the slightest implies there is any rig
Can’t you just answer up the questions?
