Hand reading fails me. What does this donk-barrel-call-donk line rep?
1/3, 9 handed, $500 max buy-in, Parx Philly Friday night. Rake is 10% up to $5 with $2 promo drop.
PRE -
EP limps (UTG or UTG1). He's starting out around $645-ish.
This is the main V. He's white, maybe mid 20's, just sat down with around $300-$400 maybe 2-3 orbits ago. Never seen him before this, so most likely not a reg, or at least not in this room. He won a big pot not long after he sat down, either with a big bluff that got through or hero calling a big bluff that didn't. As I'm typing this, I can't remember for sure which it was.
Too soon to assign him a detailed read with any confidence, aside from saying he appears capable of either running a big bluff or hero-calling a big bluff, and isn't scared money, but otherwise probably isn't very good when he's open limping from EP.
Hero raises to $20 with A5dd in MP. Hero is MAWG running over the table with around $2k in front of him. Should have a winning image. Haven't shown any bluffs since V sat down. Have shown a lot of winning hands, even when opponents folded, so the rest of the table may think I'm on a heater and just always have it.
Two calls from loose-passive rec-fish in LP, folds back to V, who also calls. Four to the flop with ~$80 in the pot.
FLOP ($80) 843rb with one diamond, giving us one over, backdoor flush and inside straight draw.
V donks for $25. Hero calls. Other two fold. HU going to the turn.
TURN ($130) 843rb Ks, completing the rainbow of suits. No more BDFD, just the one over and an ISSD.
V bets again, for $45. Hero decides V is almost certainly FOS when he continues to barrel here, but for such a small size, and we can rep a lot of KX as the PFR, so we raise to $125 (not going too big, just in case he isn't actually FOS). V thinks for maybe 5 seconds, then calls.
Assuming V will check in flow on the river, hero is planning on jamming on any Q, J, T, 6, 4 or 3, sizing down for value on an ace or 2, and giving up / checking back on a K, 8, 9, or 7.
RIVER ($380) 843rb Ks 5c, giving hero 3rd pair.
Hero forgot to have a plan for what to do on a 5, but it doesn't matter. V doesn't think more than a few seconds before stacking up some chips and donking for $225, leaving himself about $250 behind.
I can't remember if I've ever seen this line, and in game, I was very surprised. He donked the river for half his remaining stack, but it's just under 60% pot. Like, what is this line repping?
As hero is tanking, he looks over and notices that V is staring intensely at him, apparently trying to look confident / strong, usually a fairly reliable tell indicating weakness.
I didn't think he'd have a flopped set or 2P when he bets small and then just flat calls my raise on the turn Ks. I wouldn't think 8x would continue to barrel on the Ks turn AND flat call my raise AND donk the river on a brick.
The 5 on the river doesn't change anything, if we discount either of us having some sort of inside-straight draw (76? A2?) that gets there, or somehow arrives on the river with 85 or 54 (just 1 combo each of 54s and 85s). Are 76, A2, 85 and 54 taking this line - donk flop, barrel-call turn, donk river?
Maybe he started a semi-bluff on the flop with 65. But does anyone in his spot river 3rd pair and suddenly decide to turn it into a bluff by donking for 60% pot (1/2 remaining stack)? Without thinking more than a few seconds?
I'm guessing most here will say this is a trivial fold. Maybe it is. But I was having a very hard time putting V on a hand that made sense for value. To be fair, I was also having a hard time figuring out what his bluffs would be.
We beat 65 and worse 5x, like 52 (both open-ended on the flop). We beat hands like A4 and A3 with BDFD's, if he's donking out with bottom or middle pair + BDFD on the flop. And we beat all his random air-balls that are just spazzing. I figure he's got 2 combos of 65s, 2 of 52s, 2 of A4s, and 2 of A3s, so 8 value-bluffs, and maybe some weird air.
We lose to 8x and better. I figure he's got 3 combos of 98s, 3 of 87s, and 3 of A8s - 9 total. If we want to give him 85s and 54s, that's another 2 combos, for 11 total. Do we want to give him 76 and A2?
We're being laid 2.7 to one on a call.
What should hero do?
I'm referring to the frequency of turn bluffs, not the size of the overbet.
Google's AI wrote:
In No Limit Hold'em, overbetting the turn allows for a greater bluff-to-value ratio because it significantly increases the pot size, making it more difficult for an opponent to call with marginal hands, which in turn, creates a larger window for profitable bluffs while still extracting maximum value from your strong hands; essentially, you can bluff more effectively because your opponent is less likely to call with weaker hands due to the large bet size.
I'm referring to the frequency of turn bluffs, not the size of the overbet.
Google's AI wrote:
You're asking a valid question, perhaps two or three in one. I'll have to pay more attention to how often I'm bluffing when I over-bet the turn. It's possible I'm too value-heavy when I'm over-betting. I'll also have to look at my sizing when I'm over-betting, which I think may be too large.
I'm not positive I've been betting the turn too frequently, but I think I may be. Part of it is that I have a bad habit of losing track of the SPR when facing shorter-stacked opponents, leading to situations where I barrel turn, they check-jam, and I'm somewhat priced in to call when I was semi-bluffing.
I also sometimes forget to slow down and check back with showdown value, which I think would make some of my turn barrels fall under the heading of polarization mistakes (betting when it's not for value or as a bluff).
It's possible I'm betting as often as I should be, and I just tend to remember the times I get check-raised more than I remember the times I bet and get called or I just check it back.
The example hand I gave, of turning trips, may be a good indicator. I turned bottom trips. I think the board was QT55. I don't think I'd be check-raising that turn as a bluff anywhere near as often as I should be, if I'm supposed to be balanced. And I don't know that I should be x/r'ing rather than donking or just check-calling, or x/r'ing to 6x rather than a smaller size.
For all I know, V had a weak Qx and I got max value by checking the turn, and he wouldn't have bet again if I just check-called, so I didn't lose any value. Hard to say for sure. But I suspect a turn donk and river barrel, or a turn check-call and a river donk might get me an additional street with value, and a smaller turn check-raise with a hand like KJ or J9, followed by a big river barrel, is a better line with my bluffs.
After watching the HH videos, I've tried some overbets (1.2x pot) on the turns and had a good run of successful bluffs. However, when I have done this with value hands (pocket 2s with a set), I have been getting folds from top pair (Aces with jack kicker), and such. Small sample. But seems like it's more effective for bluffs, and I need to be more thougthful and maybe size down when I want a call.
I'm struggling to remember a recent hand where I made a massive over-bet or raise on the river with a bluff. I have made some stupid-small raises on the river with bluffs, which have mostly gotten through, and I'm pretty pleased with myself for pulling them off.
Marc is a big proponent for sizing up or down on the river based on V's likely range, but betting the same size on the turn with both value and bluffs. Like, he'll go 1/3-1/2 flop, 1/2 or over-bet turn, and then big or small depending on
After watching the HH videos, I've tried some overbets (1.2x pot) on the turns and had a good run of successful bluffs. However, when I have done this with value hands (pocket 2s with a set), I have been getting folds from top pair (Aces with jack kicker), and such. Small sample. But seems like it's more effective for bluffs, and I need to be more thougthful and maybe size down when I want a call.
Sounds like you're seeing the same thing I have - they over-fold to the turn over-bet. The point I was trying to make is that even when we're bluffing, we win more when they call turn and fold river.
I don't know, but I think the adjustment is to not go as large on the turn, and size up with our bluffs on the river. I wonder if I've hesitated to do it, because over-betting the turn when the pot is smaller is more comfortable than over-betting the river when the pot is larger.
I can hear my own thoughts - "He called 1/3-1/2 pot on the flop. He called 2/3 to full pot on the turn. He's not folding. Save your money, give up, and check back." I'd be even more hesitant to barrel the river if I over-bet the turn and got called.
Perhaps the irony here is that my smaller turn bets seem to increase the frequency of V's donking into me on the river, and I'm totally comfortable raising when they donk somewhat small, hence this thread. If V was deeper, I wouldn't have had to think about it nearly as long as I did. I'd just click it to $500, and expect him to fold close to 100%.
So, yeah, I think the adjustment I'm going to make is to not over-bet the turn with value or bluffs, because they over-fold. Instead, I'll stick with the more "normal" sizing, and either barrel or raise river if they donk into me.
What this and other threads here have shown me is that many of the frequent posters here are timid when it comes to finding opportunities to raise as a bluff, leaving money on the table. The flop and turn in this hand are clear opportunities,
Do not confuse people telling you that they don't think you've chosen a good spot to do something, with them being incapable of doing it. The results of this hand clearly show that you picked a bad spot, since you did not get the fold that you were "supposed" to get.
In LLSNL, and probably in all of poker, you get the money by being patient and waiting for the right spot. Whether it's the right spot to take a pot away from someone else, or the right spot to extract value, whatever it is, you can't force action. This hand reeks of entitlement tilt--you're forcing action because you saw someone do something they're not "supposed" to do. But if this guy doesn't know he's not supposed to lead into you when you have a range advantage, he also may not know he's not supposed to play back when you apply pressure. And that's exactly what happened here.
