2024 NFL Game Thread - Divisional Round
Saturday
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Washington Commies @ Detroit Lions (-9)
Sunday
Los Angeles Rams @ Philad
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
Interesting. I’d love to know too.
Just so frustrating.
- Henry drop on opening series; ultimately didn't cost us
- Bizarre interception by missing coverage; doesn't cost us any points
- Andrews drop, immediately leads into Lamar fumble next play
- Terrible goal-line series, only getting a FG
- Andrews fumble, great defensive play but can't be losing that ball
- Andrew 2-pt drop
Hat tip to Bills in first half especially, controlled both lines really well. Buffalo doesn't often miss cashing in that 3rd-and-goal to ice the game. The call on White for DPI was Chiefs-esque, granted so was the phantom hold on Buffalo late in the 1st in Baltimore territory. But majority of these are self inflicted wounds. Defense was mostly good, all things considered. Team has way too much talent to come out of the last 6 years without even reaching a Superbowl.
Baltimore's last 11 offensive players were non-Henry runs. But, that was a function of the score and gametime remaining.
Prior to that, Henry ran on 16 of Baltimore's 44 plays. (36.4%) He was also targeted on two passing plays (0 receptions).
Yea that number is misleading. The turnovers and game situation meant they couldn’t just pound Henry 30 times.
I don’t think you can pin this one on Harbaugh, they could easily have won the game by double digits if not for random **** ups.
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
I mean when there's a lot of time left, there's always a chance the other team kicks two FGs and you score one TD and you can "get back" the point that you left on the table by kicking the XP down two, but it's never something you should count on. As far as other scenarios that make the try relevant, it feels like much more common/likely one is both teams matching scores the rest of the way, in which case you're gonna be really happy you went for two (if successful).
I don't mind coaches that don't go for it earlyish in games (like being OK kicking the XP to be down 14-13 early 2Q or something), since there truly are a million ways for the numbers to get weird at that stage of the game. But anytime in 2nd half I think I try to tie when I can.
+1
and then all the support shifts to WAS and JD in the SB
some ppl itt thought the same. i didn't see that DPI as egregious. certainly not a 100% ran through the receiver type DPI, but close enough to not lose any sleep over if i were a BAL fan
really?
I understand the aversion to rooting for the bills. And I cannot stand their paintchip eating cousin ****ing alcoholic ****ing fanbase in this forum or in reality for even a second (Nate’s cool though)
But you realize the alternative is the ****ing chefs right?
Like I don’t think anyone on this forum hates this bills more than I do and I’m still gonna root for them
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
Old article from 2017, but has some good analysis. Main point seems to be that most of the calculations assume 10 minutes or less remaining in the game. That said, going for 2 is likely the right play there, even with more time left on the clock.
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
I think you can make the argument that given it was late in the 3rd quarter (iirc) you go for one. Obviously late in the 4th you go for two.
It's interesting that teams are now likely making the error of going for 2 too much whereas they did it too little up until a few years ago. Same with going for it on 4th down too much. There was a game this weekend, I forget which one, where a team went for it on 4th and 10 which I believe is almost always wrong except in the most desperate of situations.
You could leave me in a North Korean prison camp for the next 5 years and I promise you I won’t root for the chefs
What if you shared a cell with Dom and Mark was your CO?
Does the advanced math say otherwise?
Baltimore scores a touchdown to close the gap to 21 - 19.
Baltimore elects to go for two pts to tie it up.
They fail at the two point play, and the score remains 21 - 19 Buffalo leads.
Does the fancy math say kick the extra point, worry about the one point deficit later ?
The two point attempt decision was huge the way the game played out.
Anything on the internet about this decision?
What is most important in the analysis would be the probability BAL had of converting the 2 pt attempt.
Also in the analysis would be things the opposing team might do that in reality have never been done, even though mathematically it might make sense. For example, assume 21-20 score early 4th qtr. BUF scores TD, and goes for 2 to go up 9 (which I cannot recall ever being done).
This is one reason why play modeling which project best decisions are flawed, because they are based on non-optimal decisions that have taken place historically.
Amazing how history has a tendency to repeat itself
You could leave me in a North Korean prison camp for the next 5 years and I promise you I won’t root for the chefs
You are looking at it the wrong way. The Chefs already have won. Who really cares if they win again? BuffaLOL losing again in this game to them would be hilarious. And if they somehow won the SB, you are going to regret thinking this way.
If Miami wasn't such a loser team with a fairly tepid fan base (sorry newguy), the AFC East would arguably have the most insufferable fans.
You are looking at it the wrong way. The Chefs already have won. Who really cares if they win again? BuffaLOL losing again in this game to them would be hilarious. And if they somehow won the SB, you are going to regret thinking this way.
If Miami wasn't such a loser team with a fairly tepid fan base (sorry newguy), the AFC East would arguably have the most insufferable fans.
This is a compelling argument for sure
And I hate the ****ing bills
But I hate the ****ing chefs man
This is going to be a long week of pros and cons I’ll have to weigh
the chiefs are more racist
Remember being mad at that. Started a ridiculous late season skid for us. Funnily enough that season also started with games against KC and LV.
That throw was worse, it was catchable but Lamar overthrew it. Last night was right on Andrews' numbers.
