Saeculum
I want to introduce a concept for the people who are interested in world and US affairs to mull over.
Saeculum is a term originally coined by Romans and is meant to approximate the full lifespan of a human being. At the end of the period, almost no one still living will have meaningful experience with the conditions which preceded it. I'm going to use 80 years.
The saeculum correspond to a circular cycle which can be expressed as follows .....
Hard Times ==> Strong People ==> Good Times ==> Weak People ==> Hard Times (repeat ad nauseum).
We can see that this time span roughly approximates to the time span between 1) The American Revolution, 2) The Civil War and 3) The Great Depression and WW2 and that we are now a full cycle removed from WW2 and the timeline would suggest another period of crisis is imminent.
Through no fault of their own, Boomers (like myself) were born into a period of unprecedented Good Times. The US economy was close to half of the global GDP in the wake of post war destruction and rebuilding. A man could have a factory job or be a school teacher and still afford a stay at home wife, a house, vacation and 3 kids. We all know that doesn't exist anymore or anywhere unless you win the genetic lottery and have something like wealthy parents or a gifted programmer.
During the crisis period is the time when you need the best and courageous meritocratic leadership and not people who are simply good political operators who cater solely to the wishes of the most powerful people. Once the crisis is past, the political operators enter the scene and take over and run things for their selfish benefit until things run into a crisis once again. It's a recurring cycle.
When I look at the quality of the people in our government and business world today, I am struck by the sense that these people are no different than the people I went to high school with. Our biology requires that some process take place which results in a hierarchy for making decisions. In high school, we go through a process after puberty of establishing a pecking order and the apex of the high school pecking order is to be cool and popular. That make come from having money or being a good athlete or a good student or a drug dealer.
Donald Trump was an enormously rich kid whose father did the hard work of making a fortune to give him. Obama was a smart and charismatic kid who got into Harvard. Hillary was a Goldwater girl who went to Yale and was super ambitious and married another charismatic Rhodes Scholar with political ambition.
These people grew up in a greatly advantaged generation with no serious crises or hardship comparable to leading through a Depression or fighting in a war themselves. Fighting in a war is for poor people, not rich people who can take advantage of their ability to stay away from life or death situations.
I'm not a partisan who is on the side of either Democrats or Republlicans. I don't belong to any traditional political tribes.
I'm just pointing out a sense that we don't pay enough attention to history and that a world view which is confined to what we have experienced personally is a recipe for a repetition of this cycle.
I believe that we're in for an extremely difficult period that seems to be reflective of a heretofore inevitable pattern that we haven't yet learned how to transcend. The skills and behavior that put us at the top of the pecking order in high school are not the same as those which we will come to need in times of crisis. Someone like George Washington or Abraham really came from places which one would never have suspected their destiny. Washington was certainly upper class, but it was his alpha leadership in crisis (battle) that made him a magnet that people rallied around. Lincoln was much less likely. An obscure politician out of office in 1858 who had the nerve to compete and become POTUS in 1860 and lead the country through a deadly Civil War that left 600,000 people dead.
I know a lot of people see Trump as that figure and want him to succeed. I think he has a gift in terms of his ability to get everyone's attention. But I wish he wouldn't do things like enriching himself with a new cryptocurrency token in his own image. That doesn't smell like something a benevolent dictator would do to inspire people to believe that his focus is on THEM. I confess that to me he seems like a rich high school kid whose dad spoiled him and gave him a gigantic pot of money that he didn't have to work for.
I would rather see someone like Bill Gates at the helm. Someone who emerged from a once in a lifetime competition to win the prize of the world's pre-eminent operating system. Someone who has proven the ability to lead tens of thousands of people in successful warfare of the business variety. Someone who is obviously extremely intelligent and must have the skills to allow other talented people's gifts to be realized. Someone who emphasizes education and has admirable goals like ridding the world of disease which he puts his substantial resources into. They speak to the ambition of someone to leave a legacy of making the world a better place for people who have nothing material to offer him. I prefer to live in an America which is not so selfish that it can't concern itself with the well being of poor people who are not Americans. I want an America that non-Americans admire. I don't dig the insults which are levied at Mexicans. I have known many and they have some of the most amazing work ethic and family orientation. Simple salt of the Earth people who do not seek to be bigshots. Calling out their drug cartels while ignoring the US pharma cartel which charges Americans 20x as much for drugs made in the USA than other countries citizens which have governments which are allowed to negotiate on their behalf ?? Tell me ... which cartel is more dangerous to Americans ?? Do you think there are no fentanyl labs here in the US ??
Anyway .... I'm just offering a perspective about a recurring pattern which my hunch tells me is relevant to the near term future for us here in America.
Our advantages since WW2 have left us ill prepared for big time crisis management. It's not the fault of the people who grew up with such advantages. We were born into it. We were born on third base. We didn't hit a triple.
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I would rather see someone like Bill Gates at the helm. Someone who emerged from a once in a lifetime competition to win the prize of the world's pre-eminent operating system. Someone who has proven the ability to lead tens of thousands of people in successful warfare of the business variety. Someone who is obviously extremely intelligent and must have the skills to allow other talented people's gifts to be realized. Someone who emphasizes education and has admirable goals like ridding the worl
Do you think if America devoted more energy to helping people that had nothing to offer us, it would make us stronger or more admirable to the rest of the world? Do you think it would delay the "hard time" cycle? I don't.
The rest of the world seems to admire strength, and view compassion as weakness. Despite all the time and efforts men like Gates have put into Africa, the people of Africa who make decisions are turning to (perceived) strong men like Xi and Putin and throwing the US out of every country.
You seem to have typical late 20th century Western liberal elite morality, which is fine. But I think it is a mistake to project that this morality plays very well outside of liberal elite circles, or is the stuff of "Strong men that bring on good times." If anything, your morality seems to be a product of waking up on 3rd base.
Do you think if America devoted more energy to helping people that had nothing to offer us, it would make us stronger or more admirable to the rest of the world? Do you think it would delay the "hard time" cycle? I don't.
The rest of the world seems to admire strength, and view compassion as weakness. Despite all the time and efforts men like Gates have put into Africa, the people of Africa who make decisions are turning to (perceived) strong men like Xi and Putin and throwing the US out of
I prefer wise leadership that has learned from the lessons of history.
Let's go back to the conclusion of WW1. Germany lost. The Treaty of Versailles was conducted w/o Germany at the table and the victor's representatives from France and the England were politicians who had the anger of their citizens to respond to. The people wanted to crush the Germans and so they came up with a reparations regime that was beyond the capacity of the German people to bear.
The perception of the French and British public was that the German people had (as you express) nothing to offer the British and the French. So they were indifferent to the plight of those people. The German economy experienced hyperinflation which completely wiped out the currency and that worthless currency could not afford to buy food. Germans starved to death and went through a Depression that made the American Depression pale in comparison.
People have a stubborn resistance to rolling over and dying for the convenience of other people. That's a completely unnatural act. And those people chose Adolf Hitler and the Nazis to lead them out of their situation. He validated their anger and harnessed it. He gave them targets for their anger. And lo and behold, the French and English came to understand the hard way that those people who they were completely indifferent to and perceived as having nothing to offer did indeed have something to offer ..... the absence of hostility at the indifference of knowing that those people didn't give a hoot whether they lived or died. WW2 was a tough lesson in indifference and the resolution of WW2 was completely different than the resolution of WW1. The Marshall Plan had nothing in common with Versailles. It was compassionate and wise. German was far better off in 1955 than 1925.
So while I was an American born on third base in 1962, I am also a Jewish person who grew up in the aftermath of the consequences of the resolution of WW1 which resulted in 6 million Jews going to extermination camps or otherwise being murdered. I had to understand why that happened so that I would never participate in something like that ever happening again.
If a homeless person is neglected by an indifferent society, they have the destructive power to light a match on a say when the Santa Ana winds are blowing hot dry and start a multi-billion dollar fire. In the Jewish culture, words for wisdom and charity have the same root. In the Christian faith, Jesus was a man whose life was dedicated to people who you would describe as having "nothing to offer".
I think its wiser to assume that everyone matters. There is an African proverb that reads ....."if you don't involve the child in the rites of of the village, then the child will bask in the warmth of the village as it burns down".
So .... this is an issue of American foreign policy. Do we want to make it clear to huge sections of the world that we find them to have nothing to offer us ? And do we care that those people will prefer that their leaders align with a competitive nation such as China instead of the USA ?
In the end, relationships matter. And if you cast people aside, they will know it. They aren't all stupid rubes. America's success and destiny has always been related to our ability to cultivate bilateral relationships with other people. We are 4% of the world's population and our current economy is completely dependent upon foreign supply chains as we have a trillion dollar annual trade deficit.
Your opinion of my perspective is naive. My opinion of yours is the same. That you're the one who is naive.
I'm not suggesting that the US is responsible to be the savior of everyone outside the US. I'm suggesting that indifference is a mass social disease and that the consequences of indiference are negative and predictable.
There's a difference between the strength of a quiet confident man who goes about his business every day without having to "flex" his muscles or spread out his peacock feathers.
The kind of people that spend a lot of time posturing and bragging and threatening don't project strength. They project fear and overcompensation.
Between the US and China at this moment, the Chinese are the ones projecting more strength. They dominate the world's global manufacturing processes. They have a massive trade surplus. Their leader is elected for life. He doesn't have an electorate to kiss up to. They have cultivated relationships with countries you might characterize as having nothing to offer us. But China has made deals with those countries to lock up the bulk of the world's raw materials.
The Chinese working class has a better of standard of living than the American working class. They live longer and have a society where wealth is more evenly distributed. They have a much bigger population and a society that has made it through thousands of years. Some of them pretty damn harsh under Mao.
The Chinese leader doesn't act like an immature baby or deny climate change. China has invested an order of magnitude more in renewable energy and makes much less expensive electric cars than anything produced in America. They project the strength of a patient country making the investment to credibly lead the world into the future.
Trump is a walking tantrum and full of bluster. A woefully insecure human being. He comes across like a frightened bully. A perfect avatar for our country.
Substantively, his polices are not altogether different from Obama's or Bidens. The difference is primarily in the performative aspects.
He talked a big game about tariffs, but they were strangely absent from his executive order onslaught of day 1. He talked a big game about expelling people. But Obama deported more than Trump.
Tariffs and deportations are inflationary. Trump supporters want it all. They want to penalize the lower cost providers and have them be magically replaced by Americans who can't survive on the lesser compensation to step in an provide them the same products at the same price. Something will give and the smart people understand that Trump's posturing isn't "strength". It's bluster which defies basic math. His supporters like bluster. Like Trump, they feel insecure too.
There's a fairy tale which speaks to this. The Emperor Has No Clothes. Everyone around Trump is oohing and aahing to stay in his good grace and making sure that he doesn't have a tantrum that disturbs their fortunes. Trump is an easy mark. All you have to do is constantly flatter him and shower him with phony crypto grift in his beautiful self image and he'll be nice and docile. Trump is a moron. He is not the one coming up with his policy portfolio. He's just the front man.
Between the US and China at this moment, the Chinese are the ones projecting more strength. They dominate the world's global manufacturing processes. They have a massive trade surplus. Their leader is elected for life. He doesn't have an electorate to kiss up to. They have cultivated relationships with countries you might characterize as having nothing to offer us. But China has made deals with those countries to lock up the bulk of the world's raw materials.
The Chinese working class has a bett
In the U.S., our system of government and our technology are not conducive to long-term planning.
That said, I would be cautious about assuming that China is entering any sort of lengthy period of world economic domination. In part, China is just going through the same economic explosion that the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, etc., went through at different periods. Current levels of growth obviously are not sustainable, Yes, China has the structural advantage of a huge population, but it is aging rapidly, which will be a problem.
In the U.S., our system of government and our technology are not conducive to long-term planning.
, Yes, China has the structural advantage of a huge population, but it is aging rapidly, which will be a problem.
It seems ironic to say that China has a rapidly aging population when the US Baby Boomers are now 60-78 years old. Massive generation about to present a huge support burden.
There's a difference between the strength of a quiet confident man who goes about his business every day without having to "flex" his muscles or spread out his peacock feathers.
The kind of people that spend a lot of time posturing and bragging and threatening don't project strength. They project fear and overcompensation.
Between the US and China at this moment, the Chinese are the ones projecting more strength. They dominate the world's global manufacturing processes. They have a massive trade
China is tremendously exploitive, and they are completely indifferent to the behavior of the people they deal with.
Nothing they do is altruistic. We all understand there are a lot of raw materials in places like Africa and Russia. So making deals to exploit those resources while providing very little in return isn’t “making the world a better place” out of altruism.
Which in Africa especially is causing much bloodshed and chaos and human suffering, as china will just work with whoever seizes power by any means; whereas the West requires better behavior.
Your example really supports my point that your vision of benevolent great man who makes the world a better place is at odds with “strong men bringing on good times”.
Bill Gates is the weak man born on third base that ruthless persons like Xi completely take advantage of.
I'm confused. What does the age of the U.S. population have to do with the age of the Chinese population?
China and the US are the two most powerful nations in the world. That status is the only thing that makes them relevant to this conversation. Commenting critically on the age of one of these two countries while ignoring the other is a conspicuous omission.
China is tremendously exploitive, and they are completely indifferent to the behavior of the people they deal with.
Nothing they do is altruistic. We all understand there are a lot of raw materials in places like Africa and Russia. So making deals to exploit those resources while providing very little in return isn’t “making the world a better place” out of altruism.
Which in Africa especially is causing much bloodshed and chaos and human suffering, as china will just work with whoever seize
That's interesting. Do you understand how ruthless a guy like Bill Gates had to be to win the business war that he did with Microsoft ? What did Donald Trump ever accomplish to cement his tough guy cred ?
China and the US are the two most powerful nations in the world. That status is the only thing that makes them relevant to this conversation. Commenting critically on the age of one of these two countries while ignoring the other is a conspicuous omission.
What in the world are you talking about? I simply was noting that China has problems that it will have to face. The U.S. does as well. Some problems are common to both countries. Some are not. I didn't say anything to the contrary, nor did I imply the contrary through omission. That's entirely a figment of your imagination.
Assuming the contrary has been implied through omission accounts for at least half of all the arguments online imo.
I'd never heard of the straw man fallacy until the internet came along.
That's interesting. Do you understand how ruthless a guy like Bill Gates had to be to win the business war that he did with Microsoft ? What did Donald Trump ever accomplish to cement his tough guy cred ?
You didn’t say you admired Gates because he was a ruthless businessman. You said you admired him for his philanthropy over seas after he retired.
If your argument is Trump is too much bluster, and not enough cold hearted killer, that is fine. But it doesn’t seem that is your argument.
Xi is a cold hearted killer. You are the richest man running the biggest corporation in china and he thinks your getting a little too uppity. You disappears forever.
You are a G7 nation and arrest a Chinese business woman on behalf of the Us for doing shady stuff in your country. He throws someone from your country into solitary for years until you drop charges against her.
Is that wha you admire and your argument is Trump is not ruthless enough?
Xi is a cold hearted killer. You are the richest man running the biggest corporation in china and he thinks your getting a little too uppity. You disappears forever.
Is that wha you admire and your argument is Trump is not ruthless enough?
For better or worse, dictatorship has been the primary governance model of humans throughout our history. That's how corporations are run on a daily basis with a monthly board meeting for a check and balance.
Gates was a dictator at Microsoft. A successful one.
How many employees did Donald Trump every manage at one time before becoming president ? A few dozen ? A few hundred ?
Xi is an extremely successful dictator. But then again, so was Abraham Lincoln. He suspended habeus corpus and had draft dodgers killed. Led a war that resulted in 600,000 dead.
FDR was effectively a dictator during WW2. Churchill was the British dictator. Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Putin .... all dictators.
The only organizations that ever accomplish anything have strong leaders who are empowered to make decisions.
Trump ran the Apprentice prior to becoming president and had an organization that was mostly based upon licensing his name. He had the good fortune or running for president against two women who had no substantial accomplishments of their own. Both Hillary and Kamala were only in the position to run for POTUS because they had slept with charismatic male politicians and the Democratic Party rigged the process by which they were nominated.
The title of this thread is Saeculum. The point I'm making is that none of the people in power have gotten there through leadership in hard times. These people like Trump, Harris and Clinton are just the equivalent of high school kids jockeying for popularity and stature. Trump was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He talks tough .... but he isn't.
The **** is hitting the fan. This version of human civilization is not sustainable. It's breaking. Financially, environmentally, politically, even the truth is being lost. We're heading into the Hard Times part of the cycle.
