Top set on meh river

a) i bet a little smaller on the flop. strong draw (any combo draw) is never folding no matter what you bet, this way (a little over half pot, say 7BB) you make your hand look weaker, betting for information like, and might induce a CR, and get it in.
b) this size, or pot, both ok imo
c) river sucks, but i see as many missed draws as draws that got there, i guess you just have to close your eyes and call, otherwise you are too exploitable

I don't see how you can x/f river unless villain literally never bluffs here. It's not a bad river - hearts missed, diamonds missed, the only T9/AT combos he can have would be with a flush draw especially after the turn call. Would have to have some kind of hero read to not snap call.

Agree w/ both above, but I'm fine w/ flop sizing.

Turn is clear check/shove. There arent any blanks in the deck so it will be hard to play against a float ott.

I understand your logic, but giving the draw a free card and not charging him to draw can’t be correct imo

If your opponent has 40% and position, your bets might have negative implied odds.

Flop is not necessary wrong but there are other options. Turn feels like mandatory x/r.

Flop, you can c-bet, but x/r is a valid option. There are very few turns that are good for you and you want to lower SPR now and stack off with the stacking range. If a draw gets a free card it's not great but not horrible because the other option is often a guessing game on the turn. If you had something to go with the KK betting becomes a lot more attractive.

Turn as played is a mandatory x/r. IF you bet, you must pot it here. This is a situation where there should not be any pure bluffs left at all and you want to charge, get max value of max FE with your draws. You have no blockers.

is this pure GTO view?
sounds like it ... but also very logical, makes sense.
i never studied the pure gto approach, but reading this, i get the feeling i probably should.
thx

Actually GTO sometimes pots these turns as well with no blockers so it's a valid line. It's annoyingly balanced in its actions which makes studying and saying something concrete really hard.

So I take it back, turn is not a mandatory x/r. But it's again an option.

You could say flop is x/r 2/3 of the time, turn is x/r 1/2 of the time. So this bet/bet line with dry KK should be taken only 1/6.

Wit something like KK with a straight draw it's probably bet 2/3 and turn bet 2/3 so it's more like ~40%.

yeah, this "balancing" stuff always turned me away from it for some reason.
for me something is either right or wrong (even if it's lets say only 80% right, it's still more than 51), and balancing i understand, well, if you play HU vs a strong opponent i get the necessity (like Ike famously did with roling a dice or whatever), but how often do these situations really come up? with the same opponent?

guess it goes against my inner sense of order ;-)))

ps: another thought:
how does stacksize factor in your decision here?
what i mean is, how low would your SPR have to be after the turn for the turn bet to be kinda mandatory? (so that you never fold the river no matter what)

I mean all that balancing to that fine detail is probably not necessary in Omaha unless you're playing like plo1k online. The situations do not repeat as fast as in Holdem and you can randomize with your holdings. If you would bet this turn with this same hand with a fd blocker and x/r without it I don't think people will find a way to exploit it. From outside point of view it looks like randomization.

But what is probably easy to exploit is that probably over 50 % of KK's end up playing b/b here when they kind of should not. Some other players are checking too much on the flop instead.

If the stack size is like 1.5-1.7 I guess just pot it in and x/c, bet some rivers and almost never x/f.

+1

no idea, i'm just here for the free candy :-)

We have no hearts and 1 low diamond, we should snap call.