Better line to disguise my hand?

I would just open limp (and sometimes even just fold if people behind are diffcult), but certainly not hating on a small raise (which is probably "standard").

This multiway I'm probably done with the hand on the flop.

I can understand attempting to get some of the fish involved by just flatting the turn. Against a moran I'd more lean to raise to have them put in more money with draws / not find a fold with Qx on a bad river / build the pot to more easily play for stacks on the river. Even against a solid player a raise might be better for those reasons.

I think before the speech play I was going to bet reasonable to get paid off. But with the speech I might shove (figuring would he ever think I shove when he thinks I have a boat), plus we can easily rep busted draws here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

GG I know after so many years you are simply not gonna stop your incessant limping. But you need to realize that open limping small pairs from late position is just the lowest EV way to play them. You are often limp calling to set mine or just playing a multi-way limped pot and folding the majority of the time. It allows a hand like 66 to beat you when you both miss the flop instead of you being able to potentially fold it out with a flop favourable for your range. Just one example of how you are reducing equity realization.

What busted draws?

Pre is fine, but limp is OK sometimes, too, depending on lineup. As played, just bet $50. Either he calls or he doesn't.

We have clubs, but that's about it. Would be pretty pro. to play AcKx this way as H.

As V correctly identifies when we check flop / call turn / bet river ... we have 33/22/99 a lot for value.

So I think we should probably bet big because of our range.

As to how not to be in this spot ... it's difficult, when you check flop you are giving up on ~96% of turns. I assume because you think betting is just going to be worse overall.
Can obviously raise turn small, but then our calling range is much worse and we don't want to get 3bet unless V is the type to thinks QJ is the nuts.

Speech play generally indicates weakness. V1 might not even have a pair (e.g A5, 54, busted clubs). I'd favour a small bet around $30 to induce or get value from bluff-catchers such as A3. If VI is somehow trapping with Qx, which is unlikely but still possible with the speech play that's fine too (meaning you should bet/call). In the even more unlikely scenario that he completely out-levels you and stacks you with Q9, Q3 or 33, I think you should just say "well played sir" in a sincere tone, as he's probably got genuine acting skills.

idk man 3.3xing them pure from hj at high rake when u have 0 fold equity pre and drunk fish otb seems worse than limping them. could still probably do it bc life is short and its 1/3 but i think ur vastly over estimating the ev difference of preflop options

re the hand. idk i think u target qx given turn sizing

Nah. Crushing lag doesn’t exist @ 1/3 when rake is so high in proportion, i call bs or your ss isn’t large enough w/him to see the glaring leaks

As played go allin, he wants a smaller pot w/whatever Qx doesn’t wanna pile in moneys vs you w/speech play, but he isn’t folding Qx either

It takes a lot of confidence and self-delusion for anyone to think they can consistently out-BINGO everyone else at the table playing BINGO.

That’s just, like, his style, man.

bet pot, hes not folding Qx and hes not calling anything else.

I would just go all in after that

I think flop should be cbet on QQ3r vs wide ranges and only 3 players. Part of the EV of opening this hand is that we take the pot a lot on flops like this.

On the turn, I would raise almost every time. You're trying to stack Qx which will have a hard time folding at this level. I would say it's almost mandatory.

As played, I would bet 1.5x pot. That probably gets called near 100% of the time if he has a Q. I think the fold % goes up a decent amount if you go all in.

200

Result:

LAG in BB probes turn for 90% 3way on broadway paired board with a wheel/bdf draw and then checks a brick river. How much of his range contains no showdown?

I like the flop check w/ two players, including a stabby one in position on us. We get to see how V1 reacts to the bet and have an opportunity to play a bloated pot heads up with a fishy villain; even if out of position.

On the turn we have a pretty invulnerable hand, so I can see the merit in trying to sting along a call from one of the late position fish, BUT we’re only 100bb deep it’s probably simpler just to click it back and hope to get stacks in vs V1’s Qx.

As played I’m just jamming over any river bet or immediately grabbing a big hunk of chips, and smashing them out there as a overbet.

I guess there is some merit to betting small if river is checked to us to get value from weaker holdings, and the possibility is there for V1 to c/r when we do this.

Are you ever jamming as a bluff here?

Are you ever jamming as a bluff here? Not w/ the boat of course.

Actually the thought pattern is everyone hits BINGO at the same rate but they are too loose and pay me off when I hit and I do not return the favor. Against the right fish it works far better than a strategy that uses GTO number of bluffs as the exploit against players that call too often is do not bluff enough to make them correct.

Playing Bingo (which is one of many methods you can use) works just fine in most line-ups. If you're in a line-up where it won't remotely work, then it is actually kinda doubtful you're in a game that you're going to be able to win at anyways (cuz in high rake environments we need other players to be making mistakes, both small ones that add up over time as well as the occasional big one, often).

It's also not the case that most players are either pro crushers versus absolute droolers. Most are just your garden variety losing players. With position, better hand selection, and better postflop skillz, the Bingo method will be profitable. It's not as if we're going to get someone in the field to stackoff every single time we flop the nuts... but they are going to put more money in the pot than we would on average when the situation is reversed, and that makes us money. How much more / less than any other method will be up to you to decide. Most here vastly underestimate the method, imo.

GcluelessBingonoobG