Too thin to bet top 2 on three-flush board?

This will probably be moved to the live MTT forum.

I think we probably need to b/c against this V. I would use a block bet size to induce (7500-8000). I think he is mostly betting flushes IP when checked to OTT. While a slow play can trap you, he would want to build a pot and get value before the board gets scarier for one pair hands. He is also likely to float flop with AdX and bluff with the nut blocker on the river.

While he may fold pairs under Q to a bet, he is likely gonna check them back anyway. Despite blockers, we can get value from his Qx and Kx hands.

Honestly, bet-calling didn't even occur to me. Not sure why I thought this, but in game I didn't think he'd try raising me as a bluff. Maybe because I figured he saw me as too loose, and that I wouldn't be able to fold, which is why I thought I'd have to fold if I bet and he raised.

I thought he might bet with the nut flush blocker if I checked, but wasn't sure how likely that would be, as he might think that I think he'd 3B pre with a lot of his suited aces, or that he would bet turn with his flushes.

In actuality I think he would flat pre with a lot of his worse suited aces. No idea if he'd bet turn with his flushes or trap. In game, I thought he'd trap, but now looking back I think he might bet turn.

Yes, I was leveling myself a bit here, trying to get inside his head.

It's a great play against me, for him to check back the turn with his flushes, to induce me to bluff or go for thin value on the river with 2P+. I totally would against any other opponent. Against most opponents, I'm definitely folding 1P to a bet on the turn.

Not sure it's relevant here, but the hand we played when he knocked me out a month ago...

I open AQdd UTG. he calls next to act. Flop comes JJ5 one diamond. Flop goes check check. Turn is the Td. I jam. He snap calls with QTo, no diamond. River is a brick.

Earlier in that same event, he called my pre-flop 3B-jam with AQo. I got lucky to make a boat and double up. That was when he said he'd probably knock me out.

My takeaway was that he's calling me pretty light, pre and post. I don't know if he's going to be bluff raising me very much, because he's calling me so wide, and apparently thinks I bluff too much,
that he's going to have plenty of opportunities to snap me off when he actually has a decent hand.

Keep in mind that we are deep enough that V can bluff raise river and you can call a raise without crippling your stacks.

Yeah, good point.

i think you should bet but i dont think its even close to thin value. what do you think you lose to except traps? what % equity do you think you have vs his river range?

Not betting seems criminal!

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Definitely betting against sticky V. Given he declared war on you last time I wouldn’t expect him to check back big hands.

Other than turned flushes, I suppose V could have some flopped sets that I lose to. What range do you think I should give V?

Good question about the equity. Maybe you or others could suggest some heuristic that would be applicable here. Typically on rivers, I'm not thinking in terms of equity percentages, but rather how my opponents' likely hands break down into chunks of missed draws, showdown value, thin vale, thick value, etc.

Very often, if I don't think a bet will get called by worse, but my opponent might bet worse for value or bluff, I'll check-evaluate when OOP. I'll also do this with thin value in spots where my opponents are likely to be polarized between a very strong hand or nothing.

After the hand, it was suggested that I shouldn't bet, because a raise from V would put me in a bad spot. I didn't get into the math at the time, but looking back, if I bet pot, and V raises 5x, it's pretty gross, because if I call and I'm wrong, I'd be left with 30k, just 15bb's.

I take it you mean he wouldn't check back on the turn?

You may be right. I may have been leveling myself too much in this one. Betting river seemed like it might be a polarization mistake, inasmuch as I wasn't sure my hand was strong enough to bet for value, but it seemed too strong to turn into a bluff.

I suppose I could bet small here, but strong players will pounce on weak looking bets from OOP and raise. If I bet 1/2 pot and V raises 4x-5x, it's pretty gross, and I'm not sure it makes sense to call.

Just bet small and call the raise. Sometimes you pay off against a better hand, it happens.

Doc, I think V is also capable of leveling himself here too. You're stronger as UTG PFR than usual, especially with V on the BTN. He knows that you know that he's on the BTN. He can be wider than usual but you should be stronger than usual.

I think he 3b! 77 in this situation so as not to cap his range. I think he can flat call 55. I think he 3b!/fold a lot of his suited connectors. Flop/turn are standard.

The river K is your range card. V should have very few bluffs other than his Adx combos, some of which he would bet turn with after H x. V cannot blast off here with H having nut and range advantage.

I like Fatmanonguitar's idea of a block/value bet. You have no polar bet sizes on this runout. You have more NF and all the oversets. You are targeting value from stuff like QJ and KJ.

I forgot to mention this hand in my OP, probably because I wasn't thinking about it on the river here, but there was an earlier hand, in which I raised pre, and barreled off with two overs on a three-flush board, and V called me down with 3rd pair. I think that hand would be an argument for value-betting the river here, because he obviously was calling me down pretty light.

On the flip side, there was also a hand in which he chased a straight draw on a two-flush board, and got there. I was thinking about that hand, and thought it was possible he might have flopped an OESD with 86s or 64s, and would feel compelled to bluff if I checked to him, which would seem to be an argument for checking. My thinking was that I could have a lot of 88-JJ here, that would just hate this run-out, and just go check-check after c-betting the flop and getting called.

I dunno. In game, it seemed to me that he was playing pretty LAG on this particular day, such that he'd be calling me very wide pre, and floating pretty wide on the flop, and would get to the river with a lot of hands that would either bet for thin value or bluff if I checked, as well as some sets or weak flushes that might not want to bet turn and get raised, but would definitely call if I bet, and would likely also bet if I checked.

My thinking was that I didn't want to value-own myself by betting 2P into a flush or a set, and didn't want to get blown off my equity if he put in a big raise. Betting sort of felt punty in the moment, but I wanted to see what people here thought about the situation.

Anyway, I did end up checking.

Saw results (which validate my initial reply in this case).

You are analytical which is good but sometimes to a fault. It seems as if a small sample size of hands with V has contradicting reads floating around your head pulling you in different directions.

It’s good to have a read, but mostly focus on the action on each street in this hand and make a decision accordingly.

You arrive at the river with a strong hand and a range advantage. Most of the hands that beat you are a bit of a stretch and require some mental gymnastics from you and FPS from V.

Block bets work best when:

- they can get some thin value calls
- they can result in an easy fold to a raise as you expect this to be fay value heavy and underbluffed
- they can induce natural bluffs

Here, we satisfy criteria 1 and 3 which is why I wanted to b/c here.

Absolutely, your advice is validated by the results if we believe he just flat calls a bet, and doesn't raise, or that we can call if he does raise. And for sure, I can sometimes level myself into making the wrong play, which is why I probably would have folded if I bet and he did raise. In hindsight, I'm not certain he'd call with AQo if I bet, or that folding to a raise would have been wrong here.

His play in this hand runs counter to a lot of what I thought he was doing. I'd have expected him to 3B AQo pre at least some of the time, and would expect him to bet turn with TPTK, especially if he's got the Ad in his hand as backup.

Based on some of his earlier light calls, I would have expected him to call with AdQx on the river, not that I was putting that into his range. The fact he checked back, and him suggesting he might have raised make me think he must not have been sure his hand was good. But don't ask me to explain the logic he's using, when he calls with 3rd pair on a three-flush board in another hand.

Like, the simple fact that he suggested he might raise if I had bet, but he doesn't bet when I check, makes me wonder about his thinking. If he'd raise as a bluff if I bet, why not bet for thin value when I check?

In a cash game, against most opponents, I'd have bet the river, without worrying that my opponent might raise, because I can top off or reload. I tend to do less thin value betting in tournaments when I think my opponent is likely to raise, and I don't have the stack depth to comfortably call.

Doc we’ve been through this before.

I’m no Phil Ivey and neither are you.

No offense but you are somewhat of an exhausting contributor here lol.

You have a tendency to post hands and just continue to reply to respondents with pages of analysis justifying your play over and over again.

Every hand analysis doesn’t have to be a circular conversation ad nauseum.

If you always think your play was justified by your reads, logic, and reasoning, then there’s really no point in posting hands.

I appreciate those insights about the ranges and what GTOW would do. Though I think some of your comments are self-contradictory.

Even if we have 86% or even 100% against his river range, that doesn't preclude him from betting if we check, or raising if we bet. He can fold everything worse when we bet, so even if we only get raised 5%-10% of the time, we're almost always beat when it happens. Even if he only bets 15%-30% of the time when we check, we get value from those hands that would otherwise fold if we bet.

Like I said above, in a cash game, against most V's, I'd bet river, almost always, and I'd almost always fold to a raise, because I know low stakes cash players don't bluff or go for thin value enough. I chose to deviate here because I thought he'd be slow-playing some sets on the flop or flushes on the turn, and chasing some straight draws, and thus betting / raising more on the river.

If you think he has a value bet with his hand on the river, then I'd think you'd like my check here. I'm pretty sure I'd be value-betting thin in his spot, when my opponent checks to me twice. I'd definitely be bluffing a lot with any hand that doesn't have showdown value.

I'm also not sure I follow your logic about his naked Ad hands. You seem to be saying he has AdXx infrequently, because he'd have to flat pre (which he did), flat the flop rather than raise (which he also did), and check back the turn (ditto), all of which is unlikely (despite him doing all those things), but that he should bluff raise with that combo if I bet.

But if he's unlikely to have much AdXx here, the way this was played, then shouldn't I be more concerned if he does raise over my river bet? If he's not supposed to have that hand here very often, a raise should be something else, presumably something pretty nutted, if I retain the range and nut advantage getting to the river. I have to think this is an under-bluff-raised spot.

As far as what he'd be repping if he did bet the river, the way this was played, I think he could credibly rep KQ, or just some Kx/Qx Broadway combo that figures to be best if I'm pot-controlling with 88-JJ.

I think we're supposed to bluff the river when he checks back turn, because he'll over-fold. I wasn't sure if I should bet for thin value when he checks back. But logically, if he's over-folding when we bet, I'd think we shouldn't bet thin for value, and instead we should check, so he can stab at it.

I recall some discussion here, in which the consensus was that bet-check-bet is an over-bluffed line. I hesitate to take that line with 2P on a three-flush board against an opponent who may be capable of raising as a bluff, or can otherwise just call with some better value hands, like weak flushes, or the occasional set that was slow-played on the flop, and doesn't want to raise when the flush comes in on the turn.

Whether he's actually good or not, I can't say. I don't know how often he plays. I've probably seen him at this tournament 3-4 times that I can remember, going back a few months. I've never seen him playing cash that I can recall. Since his largest cash was over $130k, and this event rarely gets over $15k up top, I imagine he's won some larger events.

Prior to this past week, I didn't know anything about him when I was facing him, so I wasn't paying such close attention to his play. I only learned of his past results because another player mentioned him to me while playing cash a few weeks back. I'm not even sure if I looked up his Hendonmob before this event, or afterwards.

What I saw from him previously and this past week made me think he's too LAG for tournament play. But I could be wrong, since he didn't take the bait and bet. Against the population, checking river is losing value. Against him, I didn't think it was, but maybe I was wrong about that. Hard to say, if he'd raise over a bet, and I'd likely fold.

look man. you're overthinking things. you probably have the best hand on the river 90+% of the time given the action up until this point. most of his air will stab the turn when you check. if you bet the river you can have all kinds of random air that you can be bluffing with and you end up fairly polar to a King or better (in your situation apparently to a set? or better), so he can talk himself into heroing if he wants to. if you are convinced he is good then open up solver and run the hand.

the only reason i said anything re his skill is the trend on this forum with reads is to make it seem like you guys are battling high stakes crushers regularly in the smallest stakes games offered in the room. that just isn't happening and it ends up tainting the discussion and probably your actual play vs them.

Fair enough. I apologize for being exhausting. I wanted others' opinions about how the river should be played, I'm glad to have gotten them, and I suppose my reasoning for playing it the way I did doesn't matter in that regard.

FWIW, I did think I missed a value bet immediately after the hand, and said as much to my opponent. It was his comment about raising that got me wondering what the correct play would be. I do think there's merit to considering what we do if he raises. I suspect most here would not call a raise, which is the crux of why I started to think it may be too thin to bet.

But, yeah, that's circular, so I'm content to consider I may have mis-played my hand in some way - if not by missing value on the river, perhaps I should have checked flop from OOP, or barreled turn.

Case in point lol

I'm not trying to frustrate you. I'm trying to understand you. FWIW, I think most of the reads I post suggest my opponents are either pretty bad, or marginally good at best.

I checked because the guy had just been owning me up until that point. I felt like he just had my number, and every decision I made against him was wrong. My immediate thought after the hand was that I misplayed it. I said I should have bet, and my opponent's response made me question what the right play would be.

I get that the consensus is we should bet. What do we do if we get raised? Fold? Call? Jam? Do we not need to think about it, because our opponent raises so infrequently?

If it helps, after this hand, I realized he was vulnerable to being exploited, and started playing back at him more, with good results.

You're overthinking babe.

- First of all, this hand is a winner. This is kq suited on a queen high board, heads up. That's a winner dude. Even if you lose this hand, its still a winner, because next time you have it it's gonna win.

- Part of your overthinking is that, you can't lose here. You litteraly cannot lose. 250k stack, you've put in 15k~ so far. This is never the hand that takes you out of the tournament. You feel me?

Let's say that at 75k you're out. If you leave a hand with 75k left, you're not out, but we can label it as "the hand that took you out", because at 75k now blinds eating you feels worse, your all in have less fold equity, you more or less begin to find shove spots and all those plays you'd rather not be in.

The important part here is your treshold. I value the treshold of this hand at 75 to 100k. The unlikely worst case scenario, you lose max treshold, your back down to 150k stack @ 2k/2k blind, you're not out by any means, and still can chill waiting for kings and aces.

And even the max treshold lost is enhanced in unlikelyhood by your tiny bets. You bet 10k, he raises to 85k? sounds A) unlikely and B) gives you now a real something to think about.

I feel I'm getting confusing so I start over, when you see this flop, I suggest you tell yourself "I'm not losing more than 50-75k here", and that alone is such a great line because you're so golden, always out of this hand with 175k stack or more. main reson being its just a pair, so if you go ballsdeep and lose 250k against a set you dont have me whiplashing your butt telling you that was a bad play. Other than that, at 50-75k treshold, theres just not a lot of mistakes to be done and its whatever.

Sonwhat does that look like, well mnhm, 4,5k open, 9,5k flop, 14-18k turn- 27k river; that looks to be around 50-75k play... and if he raises that well I'd suggest folding most of the time, because its underbluffed... dont mind a 40k call, but if he raises to 85k id strongly tend to be looking at folding, and if im sus I'd analyse player profile and hand history see if hes able/willing to bluff here, but the 85k raise in my experience wouldnt be a bluff.

On a side note, feels like you won the minimum here. 4,5k open is small, cheeky flop bet. Check turn is weird. I would definitly bet that turn. I wouldnt go hard like 40k because it represents a flush too much, but 18k certainly I dont think youre value owning yourself, is just a standart milking value bet with the best hand.

Its just hard to make a flush, and he hasnt shown to want to fight either, no reason to get lost in the what if.

what would shut me down is an ace on the turn, that would shut me down into a check, the turn diamond I like the bet. 4th diamond on the river would shut me down as well. other than that looks like an atm spot,

if youre scared to be bluff raised, you can do reasonable bets that are extremely hard to bluff. like if you bet 9,5k on the flop, using a 5k 4 1k and 5 hundreds, I love that bet as value because its small enough to be called, and big enough to make him think youre willing to go with it, hence diminishing his willingness to bluff ya.

Same thing for the river bet, as played I'd bet like, 16,3k. I think hes un'ikely to mess around with that, will have a few worse calls, and if he raises to 85k is three bundles of 5k, youre pretty much always dead and the fold isnt too crippling.

this advantage of live poker, you can make bets look big, 16,3k in chips is like 2 5k, 6 1k, 3 100s... its just a chunky cute lil bet. great for value, great to not be messed around, yet not much in the grand sheme of things having started with 250k. im tricky like that, the mind games, is just very human thing, they see lots of chips, a few highly valuable chips in there as well, its a great b'uff deterrent yet still call-able with whatever top 2 pair beats, which is a lot on this board.

So yeah, am agree with the community by betting river, and I personnaly add betting turn as well, s'long that you make it thin enough to not trigger flush warnings in his head.

as for the raise well, player profile, previous hand history; and would lean towards fold on a 85k raise against an unknown, because the frequency is so low he just has it

also dont mind a bigger open, its a beautiful hand. so yeah try it out for me, relax, and let a treshold be your safe keeps and get some value, I do feel you won the minimum

ps, part of your game is already pro level Doc 😉

I mean it with all of me

believe in you

Appreciate all that. Thank you.