Can we call this flop 3! with a combo draw?
1/2. Villain is in his 60s. V showed unusual plays in the last 1.5 hour at this table.
V called my UTG open with KQo on the SB, checked on a K high dry flop, and after x x, he led for very small when a J lands on the turn, and x-called (half pot) river when flush got there.
V 3! my UTG open with 88 on the SB (no one flat before him), we called. V check-called my 40% bet on a J9x rainbow flop.
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OTTH
V opened 10 from CO (effective stack 294)
H saw 9Tss from SB, called. HU.
Flop (22) Qs 8s 3c
H checked,
V bet 10,
H check - raised to 40.
V tank jammed.
My questions:
1. what percentages of time shall we find a fold here?
2. we later on found out that V had A2ss. Is it too aggressive / fishy to 3! jam so big with nut flush draw, after being check-raised?
3. if we were having V's hand (A2ss) and everything else stayed the same, can we call V's jamming range on the flop?
Thanks everyone!
6 Replies
Unfortunately I think you have to lay this one down. Not ahead of anything that will shove here.
I don’t hate the 3b as long as it’s mixed in with calls. You’re looks better than it actually is.
Grunch:
I fold this pre-flop from the SB. You'd be HU or in the worst position in a 3-way pot, OOP w/ a speculative hand against an opponent who you've pegged as playing unusual (ie unpredictably) - just seems not ideal?
Unsure about the c/r on the flop, but if V c-bets wide enough and rarely 3 bets, it seems ok? Seems reasonable to just called the 1/2 pot c-bet and realize your equity going to the turn.
1. AP, I would fold to the shove 100% of the time. You have to call $244 into $346 (need 41%) with a draw to a non-nut flush and a gutshot. You'd be in bad shape against a bigger FD or a set, and only flipping against TP + no draw, which is your best case scenario. I'd think you'd want to be the doing the shoving w/ this type of hand, not calling a huge shove.
2. Yes, seems aggressive to 3! flop w/ As2s, he's way behind your c/r/c range of course, so it depends on how often he thinks you're getting out of line, or if you'd call w/ the kind of hand you have.
3. I'd fold As2s in your spot as well.
Take all this w/ grain of salt, I'm newish and trying to learn.
Grunch:I fold this pre-flop from the SB. You'd be HU or in the worst position in a 3-way pot, OOP w/ a speculative hand against an opponent who you've pegged as playing unusual (ie unpredictably) - just seems not ideal? Unsure about the c/r on the flop, but if V c-bets wide enough and rarely 3 bets, it seems ok? Seems reasonable to just called the 1/2 pot c-bet and realize your
Hey thanks for the detailed reply.
PF - makes sense.
1. Our hand is not doing well against that jamming range, yeah. However I think our opponent's range should be [a normal range + (he doesn't know what he's doing) range], so in 1/2, I don't think it's a 100% fold. In some casinos there's high hand promotion, plus if we can run it twice, we have additional equity.
2. To be honest I hate his shove with the nut FD, I think it's an old-fashioned / outdated way to play nut FD, but welcome different thoughts to say why it's good.
3. Agreed.
Kind of hard to know what to do here without your stack size. I would have folded this pre though not really in my range from SB. 10$ loss isn't horrible but a $284 toss up to catch with 25% of those catchup's being destroyed I am not loving it.
