77's in a big pot.
2/3 8 handed. UTG has been limping in nearly every hand with a few raises sprinkled in. He only has 45 to start the hand. He has had a short stack the whole time I've been at the table. He has been going all in with usually made hands post flop. He will typically call after being raised pre. UTG +1 is a 75 year old man. He has been pretty active with his pre flop raises. He has mostly shown strong hands but isn't a nit. The SB is very agro pre and very loose with calls. He is the only player at the table I am concerned may squeeze pre. The players to the left of me are all pretty loose but none have three bet yet pre. They do like to cold call.
UTG open limps, UTG+1 raises to 8 (500 stack) , I call (400 stack) 7s7c, It's folded to the SB who raises to 40 (800 stack), UTG goes all in for 42, UTG+1 calls and I call, SB calls the 2 bucks.
(168 in pot) Qd7d5h. It's folded to UTG +1 who donks 30, I raise to 90, SB folds and UTG+1 calls.
(168 in main pot) (180 in side pot) Qd7d5h6d UTG+1 donks 55....I figured I was up against a flush on the turn but I'm not 100% sure. Should I just be getting it all in here or just call?
Pre flop I rarely cold call a raise outside the BB or button. I thought the implied odds were there and the raise was small. I don't love 3 betting with 77's especially against a tightish range.
I wasn't sure how to proceed against this very small flop donk. I knew I wanted to put more money in. I don't have a read on his donking range.
7 Replies
I'm struggling to see the part of the old TAG's range that is ahead of you on the turn, especially since he only called the preflop 3-bet despite having the opportunity to reopen the action from the SB.
It looks a lot like AdQx, or some other BDWY Qx or draw, and you're only really bad against QQ. Reraise all-in!
I don't like the raise size on the flop. You're most likely good here. SB would have led big with QQ since there are diamonds on the board. UTG+1 would have bet bigger if he had QQ. $30 into $168 This is less than 1/5 pot. What does he have? a Queen? or a draw? As played your raise puts about $290 into the pot and Villain only has to call for $60. He is getting 5-1 an easy call if he has a draw. I would have bet bigger to chase out draws. Yes made hands might fold but the pot is big right now. I think $150 is the right size on the flop. And if anyone has you beat then thats just bad luck.
On the turn I'd be asking" why the small bet?". Did Opponent get there? Is this a small value bet with the nuts? Does he have a small flush or straight and he wants to know if it is good? nobody bluffs for this small? Since Villain bet small twice, I would expect another small bet on the river.
I would call the turn and hope the board pairs.
Raise bigger flop imo. As player just stuff turn, if he has it he has it. I would think a flush would bet bigger anyways. He probably has a hand like AQ or KQ with a diamond a lot.
I would be more worried if it was Qx7d5d.
If we know UTG1 has a flush, at the absolute worst (9d8d) we're a 20/80 dog.
Both pots combined are 348 on the turn.
After the 55 bet, the pots are 403. Giving us 7.3 ish to 1. Or around 12% or so. (We are assuming V1 has 0%.) If you want to minimize risk (and gain, as V will lolfold when you shove a pairing river), you do have direct odds to merely call.
I agree with shoving. Why not make an extra 213 when you hit? 20% of the time (at worst: it's usually 22.7% with every other flush combo not making a SF), we make 403 + 55 + 213 + 213. 884. 176.8 proportionately.
80% of the time, we set another 213 on fire. -170.4 proportionately. 6.4 bucks profit, which beats 0. Usually, it'll be about 36 bucks.
So really, shove.
I would just fold pre to the 3bet since odds aren't really there or they're very slim at best (to break even).
If we were deeper, I would just call the turn but as others have also said since stacks are not gonna leave us with much otr (and a lot of cards to come can either kill action or even get us to fold, like another d) Jamming is fine. Flushes aren't gonna be the majority of his range as described, especially with his tiny donk bet otf.
First preflop call is a little dicey due to the fact the aggro guy could easily squeeze to go after what will undoubtedly be a lotta dead money at this sizing.
Calling the 3bet is a little meh, imo. We're only getting ~14:1 or so, and even though we're in position, this multiway we're pretty much mostly going to have to hit a set to continue on most boards and the preflop aggrotard often won't have anything postflop to pay us off.
SPR is lol 2 on the flop. The board is fairly drawy with some action killers. The lead is for lol small (giving themselves great odds to chase a draw). Kinda awkward spot with these stacks, but I think I would consider jamming. Any reasonable raise (and $90 into a $200 pot which offers terrific ~5:1 odds continue really isn't) will setup a very small turn shove. I guess with our sizing we're just trying to string along to the turn where we'll shove (in this case $270 into $348); if not shoving, I'd still go a little larger just to make the turn shove as little more appetizing (such as $120 which would leave $240 into $408).
I mean, not the greatest turn but are we ever going to be able to manage a fold on the river UI having << 1/2 PSB left? With this in mind I think I just ship the rest in now to protect against stuff like AdQx / 4liners.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Pre-flop is whatever. I get the set mining. On the flop, you need to raise much bigger. There is $168 in the pot -- raise to at least $150. I doubt he has a flush, but he might. I go ahead and raise/shove the turn. Don't let him see a "free" river w/ a big diamond.
Basically, you got what you wanted with the pre-flop raise, now get paid.
