Maximum Extraction, Set vs Nit

yeah just call then donk bet turn like 1/3 pot to ship river.

If we're getting stacked, we're getting stacked set over set. Depends what H thinks V is gonna do ott to see if minraise or just call.

Range sounds familiar. :-)

I think there's a high chance Villain checks behind if I call the flop raise, as it's obvious I'm not doing it with 5♥ 4♥.

Given the SPR after Villain's flop raise, I think we should neglect 88 and KK in Villain's range as that seals Hero's fate. 99-QQ can hardly put in more money. So should all my decision-making **assume** TP or AA, and mostly toward the weaker end of that?

If I call the flop raise:
Effective stacks = $145
Pot = ~$110

If I donk lead $45 on the turn and Villain calls, then, on the river:
Effective stacks = $100
Pot = ~$200

Would Villain then call a shove with, say, K9o? I think most risk-averse players would not as my flop call indicates too much strength.

I am still on the fence as to whether or not to pursue Villain's entire stack.

its a 1/2 pot river bet. no brainer AI.

How often do such Villains measure bet sizes as a % of pot size?

Most elderly tight-passives aren't calling a raise with KJ, and likely not with KQ unless it's suited.

He definitely has KK/88 in his range, but he should have a lot of AK and some AA as well, all of which could raise this flop.

OTOH, if he's too tight to raise AK here, you're on the wrong side of AA vs. KK/88.

AA, AK, KK, 88, maybe KQs. We are probably toast, but tough to fold a set.

Just flat the flop. I might even check the turn and see what he does.

Edit: Just read your spoiler: Disagree with the min-raise theory and that villain's range is not strong -- unless you completely mislabeled him.

Preflop raise is pretty meh if there are lottsa of others on shortstacks, imo.

At this SPR, we're not getting away from a set-over-set situation, so I think folding is out. I would probably call the raise and then donk the turn to setup a river shove on this very drawless board (i.e. unafraid of hand/action killers).

Given the action and this player type, this player's range is AA/AK/KQ/KK/88 and I think that is pretty much it (ETA: Although also agree with first poster who reasoned sometimes QQ/JJ).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think AA/KK is way more likely to 3bet preflop. or even open raise ... on the flop I think the snap raise is very weighted towards the best one pair hands.

I wouldn't be shocked if V's range is something like 90% AK, 5% 88, 5% AA/KK/KQ

As an exploit it might be worth a flop 3bet to like 90, I don't like call flop and lead turn because I think V bets all turns (even if it might be a bad size like 20-40).
My guess is that V won't like an 8 or maybe a Q, but maybe still bets on the turn for those cards but will like a raise less. Doubt V can find a turn fold on any other cards but maybe.

I would probably just call flop, x/r turn. If I'm feeling it I might even say some BS about how I don't feel good about it on the turn but I can't fold.

Read the spoil update: Think about what you'd do with KQ/87/whatever here ... Very likely you'll be thinking to yourself "well I'm behind and this guy is never limp/calling AK and folding so I can't bluff" but yet you think you can't get stacks in here.

tl;dr Do whatever you feel is best to get all the money in.

I think the only way the money goes in is if we are behind 😉

I'd be giving V a lot of AK/KQ. Maybe occasionally he slow plays AA pre, but if so, then he could also have KK. Maybe occasionally he shows up with 88, but doubtful he'd play it this way. I'd expect him to slow play sets.

Kind of hate giving up the betting lead to a min-click. I suppose the standard line here would be to flat call the raise, and look to put in a check raise on a later street. But I suspect V will be checking back to play pot control on most turns, and we'll end up having to donk the river.

I wonder if a better line would be to click it back, then continue to bet turn and river using milky sizes. Can he fold Kx to a min-click? Maybe not.

Ultimately, it probably doesn't matter much what line we take here if V is tight-passive and playing a short stack. No matter what we do, unless V improves to 2P, he's unlikely to want to play for stacks when he didn't raise pre. I'd be hoping to see an A or Q on turn or river, then going for max value.

Thinking about this more, I'd heavily weight him towards KQ, and want to click it back to $75, because he's unlikely to believe we'd 3B our better hands. If he folds, so be it. We probably weren't getting any more value from him anyway.

A 3bet postflop at LLSNL is just so nuttish tho, no? There's just no reason to do this at this stack size on this drawless a board, imo.

And though it is rarely going to happen, blowing Kx out of the hand when they would have hit their 3outer for two pear on the turn is a disaster.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It's unclear what the positions are here, but it seems like V is behind hero. If that's correct, I wouldn't be in a position to 3B, because I'd have checked from OOP as the PFR and HU, to let V stab. We might have been able to check-call the whole way, depending on what bet sizing V would have taken.

But, hero got here the way he got here, and V is who V is. In my observation, tight-passive seniors don't like folding post-flop, once they've entered a pot, especially not after they've taken aggressive action. They also tend to like slow-playing from OOP, so they're more likely to think hero is bluffing if he 3B's, rather than think he's raising with a nutted hand.

Flatting is an option, but flatting doesn't necessarily look weak. V is very likely to just check-back the turn if we flat call. The odds of V hitting 2P or trips on the turn are around 10%. V is likely to check back the other 90% of the time.

V may 4B-jam with AK some percentage of the time. V may flat call our 3B, and call our turn and river barrels some percentage of the time. The EV of raising is likely higher than the EV of flatting.

First, folding 33 on a K83r board with an SPR of about 1.6 after the flop raise and <70BB starting stacks is unthinkable.

For ranges, I think that even tight-passive seniors will usually reraise AA and KK pre-flop, but not always. I think those should be pretty discounted in Villain's range.

I can't find it now, but there's a Bart Hanson video where he says that the insta minraise is very often a TPMK (e.g. a JTo on a J23r board) that is seeking info on opponents hands and trying to get value from (e.g. 44-TT). I am surprised that some don't think this is very common; I think I've seen it a lot, though it's not like I've kept a database.

Beyond this hand, how do people here interpret those insta min raises on the flop, especially dry ones with one card that's T through A?

This is the main conflict. If I 3bet on the flop, even most newbs know that's strength. If I don't 3bet, then I'm OOP and risk not playing a big enough pot with a monster.

How the action turned out:

The min-raise could be AK or KQ/J or a set or AA -- yes, I see them flat with AK/QQ/KK/AA all the time.

My whole point is that there are zero tight/passive senior citizen players who are putting any more money in w/o a hand that beats 33 😉

Translation - he wasn't putting any more money into the pot if we flat called, unless he spiked 2P or trips on the turn or river.

I actually misspoke earlier; if he has TP he has 5 outs to improve to worse, so blowing him off this just seems horrible to me.

If we just call the minraise, the pot will be $114 and we'll have just $145 left. Even just a dinky little donk of $40 into $114 will be hard to pass up, and that will leave us with just $105 into $194 on the river (where he'll often feel sigh committed, especially if he's improved to his 5 outs which he will have done 20% of the time).

If there's no reason to 3bet the flop (which there would be if stacks were larger or board was a lot more drawy with action/hand killing cards), then why take that route?

Gclearflat/donk/donk,imoG

gobbledygeek:

(1) How often does Villain put in $105 on the river with 1 pair, regardless of pot size? Are they even thinking in terms of pot odds?

(2) Another Bart Hanson tip is to not go all in. I'm sure someone else can find the clip, where he (more or less) says that if I take your flop and turn line and there's $104 left in a $195 pot, that villains will call the $104 shove 50% of the time... but they'll call the $95 bet 80% of the time, which is a $24 EV improvement assuming we're ahead. What do you think of that reasoning?

1) Well, when he hits his two pear / trips the 20% of the time, at least 20% of the time. Otherwise, he's facing a bet for one stack of reds with 3 stacks of reds already being in the middle (these are not overly massive bets at 1/3 NL), so he's going to call it off ~some percentage of the time UI.

2) I haven't seen the Bart Hanson clip on that, and while I'm a fan, he's out to lunch if he thinks there's a 50% versus 80% calling ratio for bets of $104 versus $95 (and honestly I doubt he would for that specific example). I'm clearly in the HOC camp which advocates always going all-in here as the difference in calling frequency is almost NIL at these sizings... especially when these sizings aren't overly massive for the steaks.

ETA: But to the original play, is there any possible benefit to the 3bet line versus the flat/donk/donk line that I'm not seeing? If there isn't, and there clearly is at least one benefit to the latter line (having him catch up to worse some of the time), then why take the former line?

GcluelessNLnoobG

I wouldn't treat some Bart Hanson throwaway line as if it came from a solver, especially when it comes to predicting such a huge shift in calling/folding based upon a 10% change in bet size.

GIGO

Bart Hanson didn't consider it a solution from a solver. He considered it a live, low-stakes NL exploit.

I don't really have any data on how accurate and useful that advice is, though.

Overall, I think your flat/donk/donk line or something very similar to it is probably the max EV line.

The smallish downside is if the board ends up containing either an ace (scare card) or a 9, T, J, or Q and villain makes a higher set.