3-bet Pot with OESD - Tough turn/river decision
5/5
~$700 effective
BB - Very straightforward reg, plays passive. I've played about 10 sessions with him and haven't noted anything - basically a ghost.
Hero(MP) T♣ 9♣ opens to $20, BB - 3bets to $80, Hero calls
Flop($190) J♣ J♦ 8♠
x x
Turn($190) K♥
x Hero checks
River($190) 2♠
x, Hero bets $200
My thought process: His range is full of strong hands, and he’s capable of checking all of them. So basically, he’s not capped until the river. But since I checked twice, he might now wake up with AA or AK OTR.
Now I think he’s QQ-TT heavy, and I decide there’s a good chance I can get him to fold.
4 Replies
I’m betting this flop about half pot after he checks
I don’t see what you bet on this river that doesn’t at least bet the turn. TT-QQ shouldn’t be folding here based on your action
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think the place to bluff is on the turn. I'm looking you up on river with a lot of the hands I 3bet with, and V is a "passive" player 3betting from the BB, so he probably has QQ+, maybe TT.
I’m betting this flop about half pot after he checks
I don’t see what you bet on this river that doesn’t at least bet the turn. TT-QQ shouldn’t be folding here based on your action
I was undecided about betting the turn, especially since the K hits both players' ranges. Although fold equity may be higher on the turn if he doesn't have a K, we can't assume that a turn check means he's automatically weak, when he could be super scared of the J (even if holding a K) or planning to checkraise.
At least by the river it seems pretty clear that he's likely capped at one pair.
