Tens straddle the line between FPS and genius

The read does not present a case for why the river c/r is a good idea. Villain calls off light, and gets paid when he has a real hand bc "no one gives him credit and tries to play back..." Like in your case?
You mentioned polarizing bets, so there's a reason to call the river. It doesn't feel great but neither of you seem to be showing any strength after the flop so checking to induce makes sense and now you can call.

Preflop is standard. Obviously V can have ATC from BTN straddle.

Flop is fine, although we can also c-bet. We block V's JT so that perhaps strengthens the case for a x.

Turn: We have all the big Ax in range, so delay c-bet makes sense with bdfd turn. If we're checking, we have to be prepared to x/c our SDV on most rivers.

AP River: If we're checking our SDV hands the whole way, just take ~2-1 to call instead of offering the V 2-1 to call. I don't see the point of turning our hand into a bluff here.

What does Hero do here when the LAG shoves for, like, 50c more?

Guessing we are repping AA or QQ that was trying to induce a spazz, but the reason that play works in the first place is because no one believes that we would actually check those hands three times. I imagine he will not believe you here, either, and will call or jam with 85o or something.

EDIT: Or he will fold a hand that TT was way ahead of

I don't like it. We have showdown value and are rarely, if ever, getting called with worse. Are you trying to get him to fold a Q? I'd much rather just bet the flop or the turn and go from there.

Your play is good if he bets polarized with a merged range but most people don’t so you either bluff with the best hand or get snapped by value.

Also if you are going to XR river the sizing doesn’t make a ton of sense, you are polarized so you should jam all in.

But just call river.

I limp in but that's me.

OOP to a non face up player who can be difficult in an SPR 7 pot isn't a great spot, imo.

I'm cool with our flop and turn checks. We have a mediocre showdownable hand OOP to a guy who could put money in when facing weakness.

I think the river is between folding and calling. Prolly leaning towards a call against this guy. The 8 does complete some draws but you'd think he would have semi-bluffed them earlier. I have no idea what our check/raise is repping (exactly 88 as we would have semi-bluffed any other draw that got there?). It also sounds like this is the one guy at the table we don't want to attempt to bluff; the busted backdoor flush draw will be all the excuse he needs to call, no? Or are you next leveling and actually doing this for value?

GcluelessbluffingwiththebesthandnoobG

JTs was the idea

You flopped an OESD after raising preflop and didn't semi-bluff it on any street?

Gstorydoesn'taddup,imoG

"he's very stationy too" - so why exactly are we bluff raising?

I'd say he's pretty capped, actually. No clubs, no JT/KJ, no A, no Q, not likely to have a 9, not likely to have a 5, etc.

The biggest problem is that you block the hand you want him to be pretending he has, so a more efficient bet OTR here would be to click it back. V never has a str8 or 2 pair here, and we want him to call with his 8s, or spazz and RRAI.

Unless you think he calls your raise with an 8, ofc.

I also assume we are value raising here, ofc.

Oh, guess not a value raise then.

Also would like advice on how to adjust to this guy who uses overbet sizings a lot (ex when he's OOP and flop goes check-check, he pots turn A LOT).

My thoughts are:

-my value and premium go up in expectation by check/calling and check/raising (especially since he also calls check-raises too frequently after he's overbet)

-I can c-bet a more polar range with the betting lead (like here on Q95r I can cbet AQ, QQ, 99 for small sizing and hands like 77 and A-high) because its easy to gii or fold vs his large raises.

-I can trap IP a lot more and in an extreme case check back my entire range on a lot of boards, premiums to value to SDV to air all will realize more equity and EV if he starts blasting at what he perceives as a capped range

--

To clarify his range on this river 60$ bet. He's VERY wide here. I think he would do this with almost his entire range that gets here which is all missed FDs, some PPs that didn't hit a set, weak AX, marginal QX (QJ QT KQo), 2-pair (Q8 A8 85s), and sets 55 and 88.

He overbet the river, so should have a big hand or a bluff. So not a good situation to raise. It is unlikely he is overbetting with a Q. I would just fold.

Result:

I’m fine with all of this until the river and then I fold.

If it is theoretically wrong to fold here, I don’t care because this guy will pile in money later when I have a real hand. Not to mention that this is the one hand per orbit where we don’t have position on him.

I’m OK letting this go. At some point we will have to grit our teeth and call down when this guy blasts off, but it doesn’t have to be now.

I wouldn't even mind a call on the river ... his sizing means he is supposed to be polar to JT and air, and you double block JT. And 2 out of 3 blockers if you assume that pretty much the only times he doesn't bet before the river with JT is if he doesn't have T♣.

There's some chance he thinks you are trapping way too much on the flop/turn.
I don't see how raising river does anything useful.

Thinking about it, it seems like a call. This is due to villain's issue and the overbet represents a narrow range. Plus slight overbets are sometimes a tell of a bluff online. 3! river luffs are rare at 1/3, but your raise doesn't make sense either. The raise is just horrible, burning money.

PRE - BTN straddled to...$6?

I hate NOT raising in a game where lots of people are limping in, but when the BTN straddle is on, I *MIGHT* open limp with 88-TT here, just for the sake of being able to call a raise from OOP and not go to the flop with such a low SPR.

Otherwise, raising seems fine, but the $25 size does seem a smidge large. Why not just make it $20?

FLOP - OOP range check seems good.

TURN - board sux. We have showdown. No point in betting. So check is good.

RIVER - Dude, WTF? We have 3rd pair on a two-Broadway board. Why are we x/r'ing when V over-bets? Are we turning our hand into a bluff, trying to rep JT, because we haz double-blockerz?

V might have called pre and checked back the flop with some weak AX, then checked back the turn to induce us to stab the river, and is now over-betting to get value for what he must surely know is the best hand now. He'll never believe we checked JT three times, even after we got there on the river.

The bet sizing doesn't seem to make sense. There's $310 in the pot coming back around to him, and he has to call off another $140, so he's getting better than 2 to 1. If he folds, we were probably way ahead, unless he's got JJ, but that seems pretty unlikely, when he doesn't 3B pre.

He could also have 76s, 88, 98, or A8, or even Q8, or even some weird $hlt like 85s. If he was going to run a big bluff, we'd expect him to start before the river.

I can sort of get behind calling the bet, because our hand is fairly under-repped, but I think it's fine to fold. This check-raise just seems like spew to me, especially against a guy who GTO-levels himself into hero-calling.