$1/2 unusual line - who got trapped
$1/2 Friday evening.
Table going about an hour. Both V’s joined in last 10-15 min so very limited into.
V1 BTN ~$145 late 30’s WG. Two hands ago he calls a raise w/ 53o, flops 652r and gets it in vs AA and wins. One hand ago he 3b’s big pre and takes it down. He seems to be in the beginnings of steamroller mode. V1 BTN straddles for $10.
V2 BB ~$325 MABG. Haven’t seen him do anything. Not a reg in the room.
H BTN ~$300 MAWG. V’s should have no read on H.
OTTH
SB folds, V2 calls from BB, folds to H who sees AcKh and just calls. Expectation is that V1 continues with steamroller run and raises and we reraise AI. If he doesn’t raise we play poker. Unfortunately V2 checks his option.
Flop ($27)
As6d2d
Boom. V2 checks. H checks to give V1 some rope. If V1 checks H will fire nearly all rivers. V1 checks it.
Turn ($27)
As6d2d Ks
Boom again. V2 leads for $15. H should be WA/WB here and still would love for V1 to make a mistake. H calls. V1 folds.
River ($55)
As6d2d Ks 8c
V2 leads for $55. Obviously never folding. V2 can have all A’s up, all suited K’s up, 68s and the low sets, 2, 6 & 8. Should really have AA or KK (plus only 1 combo of each). This shouldn’t matter but I’ve also been poker cursed for like 12 months.
Easy call or easy raise?
3 Replies
It isn't so much whether you're ahead but what the villain could have that is worse that will call you if you raise. Raising a pot sized bet on the river is super strong. Since he might have 2 pair worse than yours, I'd make a cib raise.
Preflop is OK. Turn you need to raise with 2 2-flushes out there.
Villain potted the river. I would make it more than a cib.
I think you're making too many assumption in this hand starting from preflop that the BTN is going to be just going crazy, when you said you've only been playing with him for 15 mins.
It's a common mistake and you want to way way more info to start deviating as much as you did in this hand.
Preflop we should still be raising very very often unless as I said we have very good reads that he's going to isolate extremely often(even in that case he will likely 3bet very often too, so we actually get in a better spot by just raising)
Flop, same idea we should generally just start betting for value. Our hand is an easy 3 street value hand and it really sucks to start letting free cards roll off here.
Turn we have a mandatory value raise there, at this SPR we need to be getting the money in by the river if possible.
There are also tons of draws out there and of course tons of worse Ax or 2 pairs that we have almost drawing dead.
River we have an easy shove there.
