Line check with AKo in CO Facing a Flop Donk
1/2. Rake is 6 plus 3 for promotion to 60.
Hero (230) just sat down buying in low to manage bankroll. V (covers) has tattooed ears pierced with screws that seemed to hold the Bluetooth headphone in place. He has open-raised once and taken down the pot with a c-bet.
Button Staddle. V in SB opens 15. UTG loose passive calls. LJ calls. Hero with AKo in CO? Hero raises to 75. Button folds. V calls. UTG and LJ fold. Heads-up.
Flop (171) JQ7r
V asked for hero’s stack size and tank-donks all in. Hero folds.
11 Replies
You have to call the pot sized shove. You have odds to call against Qx/Jx, and he could have AK/KT/T9 for a draw.
Yeah, my instinct is to call here. If the guy has better than one pair, mentally tag him as a nit and move on, but I think his most likely hand is a draw or (at best) a weak top pair that does not want to face additional pressure.
Pre-flop is well-played IMO, but you can also potentially just shove with the $5 button straddle on.
I think at this depth I call behind and try to spike an A or K or I just rip it in pre if I think they'll call with worse. AP I call.
You need less than 32% equity to call off profitably. Against a range of all the reasonable 1 pair hands plus QJs, KTs, and T9s, you have over 33% equity. So this should be a +EV call. The more out-of-line Villain gets (ATs, 78s, whatever other garbage could be out there), the more your equity goes up. Even if I put 77 into Villain's range, it's still a good call. Villain can also conceivably have AK himself, although that probably shoves pre (same with QQ and JJ).
In the moment, a main error was losing track of stack sizes. I usually play a minimum 350 deep. I thought he over-bet the pot. Another error: I did not know that AKo had 32 percent equity on this terrible flop. I thought it was closer to 25 and surprised after I stoved it, you are correct.
It's not a terrible flop for AKo. You had a gutshot and overcards. You have 10 outs against a pair. You shouldn't have to run software.
If you were first to act, you could shove with AK on this flop for pot or more, knowing you would have good equity against a pair if called.
Villain being OOP can shove the flop. That is something you should have been aware of. AK could call a shove on almost any flop. Here the Q and J may connect with his hand, but you have a gutshot to go with overcards and nut no pair.
Thanks everyone for humiliating me once again on 2+2. I quit early this session because I lost my concentration. Honestly, I spent too much time at the table writing down the hands I just punted.
I don’t think you punted in this hand. Folding flop is a small mistake at most.
In the moment, a main error was losing track of stack sizes. I usually play a minimum 350 deep. I thought he over-bet the pot. Another error: I did not know that AKo had 32 percent equity on this terrible flop. I thought it was closer to 25 and surprised after I stoved it, you are correct.
If it makes you feel better, I'd have estimated our equity as 40%.
If we were a little deeper, I might lean towards raising a smidge bigger, when short stacked and at a loose-splashy table where the BTN straddles, if only to disincentivize loose action, and make it easier to justify a post-flop jam at low SPR with TP, or just the right odds, as we seemed to have here.
Starting out with only $230, I don't think we can raise to $75 and ever fold, so we should probably just jam pre and let the poker gods sort it out.
So, either raise smaller off of $230, or jam, but don't raise to more than 1/3 of our stack and fold post.
Call flop. Folding is not a big mistake though and you should absolutely not beat yourself up over it.
I'd just jam pre too. Anytime you get close to putting in 1/3 your stack I'd recommend just jamming. Especially in a high rake game AND with AK winning it pre is very good.
