AQo IP vs fish

You are trying to get “better” at over betting by bluffing a guy who “hates folding once he has money invested in the pot”. Ok.

I fold river. Although we block some Kx combos, rivers are underbluffed. Rivers on ace high boards in 3-bet pots are even more underbluffed.

I'm sure there's a good reason why not, but why no 4!/f here with AQo vs a small 3! from SB? No sin in calling, IP ofc.

Continuing betting turn probably avoids this awkward river situation. Were you worried about getting shoved on? V should never have QJ here, you can. Though H should never have KK+ and (this keeps changing with how people play it) AK AP.

"Hates folding", "garbled FPS", makes me want to call this and see QQ/JJ that bricked out. But I'm a call monkey.

If this guy is so sticky, I'm betting turn and I think we're missing a lot of value by not doing so.

I fold river.

You aren't representing much so call. Expect to see a lot of worse pocket pairs

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Bet OTF is a bit large imo. You could check but I think its probably better to bet when you have a good kicker. I think you can bet something more like $20 to $30 and target PPs broadway draws and still make some money off weaker aces. There probably aren't a ton of those, but some.

Turn brings in QJ which I just realized is double gutted. He would not be the first guy to get stubborn with KK. It reduces AK, though. I still might bet on the smaller side. Especially as this V, doing goofy stuff, might have more suited aces.

River is tough. He has some value combos that make sense. TT, AA, AK, QJ, KK. Those are reduced by blockers and by his passivity up to now.

It's a bit hard to think of pure bluffs. 3! J9 pre, flop OE with an A and check call... probably not. Few Vs ever turn top pair into a bluff, especially when a hand like KQ or AQ makes sense for you. JJ or QQ? Those might fold to your larger flop bet. My first thought was to just call because AQ is a pretty good hand here, but I think it's a fold.

Since you have labeled the villian loose passive and given the fact that rivers are often underbluffed at these stakes for large sizings, I'm folding this spot.

I think its close as checking back the turn will cause some opponents to spaz out and bluff river but since the river bet is 2/3 of his remaining stack I don't think this is one of those scenarios.

Grunch:

PRE - if it's a loose-passive table, especially if we're deep, I'd be opening to more than $15 over a limp. I'd make it $20, maybe even $25, depending on how loose and splashy the game has been.

When V 3B's out of the SB, I'd be a little concerned, if we have him pegged as loose-passive, unless our own table image is LAG-bully, and we think he might be trying to push back and taking a stand against our aggro shenanigans.

His 3B is a tad small for being OOP, so I'm definitely not folding, and don't see much point in 4B'ing, so let's see a flop...

FLOP - On ace-high flops, as the PFR, I'm mostly playing a check back or over-bet strat. Not sure what to do as the pre-flop caller. I guess betting is fine, and I don't mind the over 1/2 pot sizing with a hand that's usually going to be best when V checks to us. But I wouldn't hate a check back here.

What sort of range were you assigning to V here? I'd think a lot of his PP's are just going to fold when we take this sizing, and his strong AX aren't likely to raise. Not even sure his 2P+ are going to raise when we bet this size, though maybe they do, if he thinks we're always FOS.

TURN - Even though the Kh looks like a scare card, I'd mostly view it as a blank. Doubtful he's 3B'ing pre with KT or QJ, or that he's checking flop with AK. Think I'd continue betting here, for around 1/2 pot, to set up an easy river jam for less than pot, especially against a V who hates folding.

RIVER - Yeesh. I think we misplayed this, because I kinda want to puke.

I dunno. AQ/AJ seem like the best hands we'll have that takes this line, and we beat all his AX that isn't AK. He maybe has four combos of AK, whereas he has a lot more AQ and worse AX that he might be over-playing. Not sure if KQ or KJ calls a $50 flop bet, and then over-bets the river for value, but maybe...

Fat man has a point - it's a three-Broadway board, which tend to be under-bluffed at low stakes, especially by loose-passive opponents.

That said, it seems like your read is that this guy does $hlt that doesn't make a ton of sense, and is prone to FPS. It's possible he's got worse AX and is turning it into a bluff, whether he realizes it or not, or perhaps just has a busted draw.

Can't really tell you what to do here, because I wouldn't get here this way. He's either got you beat or he doesn't. Call or fold. Hard to reason our way to the "correct" decision.

Nice call.

The thing about checking back the turn with showdown value is that we're often inducing our opponents to bet rivers. Most will telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing, such that I'd be inclined to fold facing a PSB from the population (especially on a three-Broadway / paired board), and call a 1/2-2/3 PSB.

Against a guy prone to FPS, it's harder to suss out what to do when he over-bets the pot. Few opponents are doing that with worse AX here, because they figure they have enough showdown value, and don't want to value-own themselves. They'd rather check-call than lead out with a big bet.

It's also a weird spot because you're both at the bottom of your range. Most of the time, when that happens, the later streets tend to go check-check. It would have been an awesome play if you'd gone for three streets of value here.

Again, not looking to beat you up, but this seems like another example where your read doesn't entirely align with the reveal. If V is taking this line with AJo, I don't think we can label him as loose-passive. I'd probably label him as TAG, maybe even a TAG-fish, if we see him making aggro plays in spots that don't make sense.

check flop, dont think its really close

as played fold.

edit: looks like your read of villain was wrong.

Check flop, we can get value later. For now let’s pot control.