1/2 top 2P vs BB aggression
1/2 NL 8-handed. Second orbit of the session, no reads on villains. V on BB looks 45s, Middle Eastern looking guy. Hero is the effective stack with $200.
Looking back I should definitely have raised preflop to $12 at least.
Criticise my play? Are we mostly facing 33 in this spot?
Hero sees QdJd in BTN
UTG and UTG+1 limp, Hero raises to $8, BB and limpers call
Flop QsJc3h (Pot $33)
BB bets $15, UTG and UTG+1 call, Hero raises to $60, BB and UTG call, UTG+1 folds
Turn 2h (Pot $213)
BB announces all-in, UTG folds, Hero?
13 Replies
Snap call at this stack depth. Don't waste your time worrying about getting away from this spot. Villain has only a few combinations of hands that beat you. You chop with his most likely holding and are crushing some inferior two pairs and single pair overplays. There are some big draws Villain can play this way as well.
And yes, the pre-flop raise is way too small.
Grunch:
PRE - Raise bigger. Probably making it $15.
FLOP - Either just flat the $15, to keep opponents' ranges wide, or raise bigger. There's $75 in the pot when it gets to you. Make it at least $85 or $90.
BB donking out into three opponents is usually going to be a pretty strong hand, at least 2P. I don't think it's worth raising. If it was heads-up, I'd be all for it.
TURN - I'm assuming UTG1 also folded to BB's all-in? Tough spot when the turn brings in a BDFD. BB could conceivably have something like KThh/T9hh, but more likely he's got the same 2P, possibly free-rolling with QJhh, or he's got 33, and we're toast.
Looks like we're getting around 2.6 to 1. With no reads on V, it's close. Against the population, I probably fold, but I *MIGHT* call if I think V is gambooly, or bluffy, or giving off a "table bully" sort of vibe.
Before folding or calling, I might try to get him to talk, or expose my hand, or see if we can pick up a tell. Maybe take a stack of chips and move them around in front of our stack, without putting them in, to see if he reacts.
Since we raised pre (small), and raised flop (also a little small), V can have 33 here. We've shown nothing but strength. I'd mostly just fold and find a better spot.
OK, here is why we can't fold this spot:
Hero has $132 in his stack on the turn. There is $213 in the pot. Villain jams for $132. Hero is calling $132 to win what will be a final pot of $477. That means Hero needs 28% equity to call in this spot.
Villain's most likely value hands here are QJ and 33. He likely has all combos of each hand. Let's say he is NEVER bluffing - he has zero bluffs. He is NEVER value-owning himself with KQhh or J3ss or one of the other many worse hands available - he has zero worse value.
Against a range of QJo, QJs, and 33, Hero has 35% equity.
Calling the jam here PRINTS money, even if Villain only ever has thick value. If Villain has any worse hands, the spot is even more valuable. You can't afford to wait for a better spot than this.
Making hero folds in spots like this is a massive mistake. Again, don't even waste your time worrying about this spot. Run the numbers, realize it's a cooler, and find a spot to study that will actually help you in the future.
So...I see your point, but...
We're calling to chop (at best) with V's QJo combos. If he has QJhh, he's got around 20% more equity, and we can only chop or lose. Against 33, we've only got about 9% equity.
So, V has 3 combos of 33, and 1 of QJhh, and only 3 combos of QJo. We can't say that QJo is his most likely holding when there are only 3 combos of QJo, but also 3 of 33, and another combo of QJhh.
Suppose we also give V some credit for slow-played JJ that didn't 3B pre. Now we're dead to 2 Q's. Yeah, it's just 1 combo. But if we think he *MIGHT* flat pre with JJ, might we also give him some sliver of QQ? If we're saying he sometimes has worse value, it seems fair to say he might sometimes have some nutted value.
Don't forget - he donked out into three opponents, including the pre-flop raiser, who then also raised turn, and now he's donk-jamming when the BDFD appears. Yeah, he could play QJo that way, but also QJhh, and 33, and QQ, and JJ, and it seems pretty unlikely he's taking this line with worse for value or just a draw.
We don't HAVE to call, just because it looks like we're getting the correct pot odds, based on the assumption that he only has QJ or 33 for value. I'm not saying we have to fold, but this spot seems pretty under-bluffed, and there's a better than 50% chance V does NOT have QJo when he jams here. I've just never seen this line taken with anything that wasn't super-thick value.
So...I see your point, but... We're calling to chop (at best) with V's QJo combos. If he has QJhh, he's got around 20% more equity, and we can only chop or lose. Against 33, we've only got about 9% equity. So, V has 3 combos of 33, and 1 of QJhh, and only 3 combos of QJo, with which we're hoping to chop. We can't say that QJo is his most likely holding when there are only 3 com
If Villain's range is QJo, QJhh, 33, QQ pure, and JJ pure, we are still getting the correct odds to call.

Again, this is also a wild hypothetical where Villain never has a bluff or worse value. This is a random fish at $1/$2 - spazz is always possible here. If he can have QQ, maybe he has KK or AA too?
Bottom line, it is not possible to justify folding in this spot. It doesn't matter that we are calling to draw to 4 outs or chop at best when there is this much money in the pot.
You have to call the turn as played. There is only one combination each of QQ and JJ and he may 3! those preflop, so you are mostly only worried about 33. You have slight equity against 33 with pot odds.
Fold this spot and watch V say, "Good fold, I had it" before showing 32s.
If Villain's range is QJo, QJhh, 33, QQ pure, and JJ pure, we are still getting the correct odds to call. Again, this is also a wild hypothetical where Villain never has a bluff or worse value. This is a random fish at $1/$2 - spazz is always possible here. If he can have QQ, maybe he has KK or AA too?Bottom line, it is not possible to justify folding in this spot. It doesn't
I get the math. It just seems like every time I've seen anyone take this line at low stakes, it was with a set.
So, yeah, if I'm being honest, I'd probably call, but it'd be a sigh-call, expecting V to roll over 33.
I'd be curious if people would range V differently if he 3B the flop. This line is effectively the same, when he bet-calls and then jams the turn.
For whatever reason it seems like a lot of players don't want to scare an opponent away with a flop 3B, but then they jam turn when another draw appears, as if we're raising flop with a backdoor draw, or are going to shut down on the river if that draw comes in, because we think V was bet-calling flop with a backdoor.
As you know, bigger pre. Raise bigger on flop. Snap call turn for 100bb.
Flop raise is too small. Turn is a pretty standard call.
Villain can show up with plenty of hands we are crushing, including qj, q3, j3 combos and punts. Even more reasonable hands like KQ, t9 that donk-shove.
Snap call.
Thanks for the replies everyone. Seems the call is pretty much a consensus given pot odds and our stack depth.
Hypothetical scenario if effective was $400 instead and V still shoves turn - would you still call with 37% odds? What if V fires 1/2 pot - leaving us quite compromised if we decide to stay in the hand?
Results:
Spoiler
Tanked for a minute and folded in the end as I also have the feeling V always has a very strong hand as played in my (very limited) 1/2 live experience. On the spot my reasoning was pretty much what docvail said as below. But I did not calculate odds accurately (huge mistake) and I can see the validity of getting the right odds to call here.
I also agree I should have bet bigger flop - my raise was too small and I'm giving cheap odds given the amount of money already in the pot.
Appreciate the discussion as always - this has been great to learn how to play this game better.
Since we raised pre (small), and raised flop (also a little small), V can have 33 here. We've shown nothing but strength. I'd mostly just fold and find a better spot.
Don't forget - he donked out into three opponents, including the pre-flop raiser, who then also raised turn, and now he's donk-jamming when the BDFD appears. Yeah, he could play QJo that way, but also QJhh, and 33, and QQ, and JJ, and it seems pretty unlikely he's taking this line with worse for value or just a draw.