QQ at 1/3 vs a maniac's flop raise and turn barrel.

Maybe I've been looking at the concept of WAWB too simplistically, where we're either way ahead or way behind, but it's impossible to know which it is. I never thought of it in terms of specific board textures or qualities.

A set on a monotone flop could be seen as WAWB, despite having a ~40% chance to improve to a boat by the river. Like, why raise with our set, when V either has a flush or he doesn't, and he probably isn't folding a flush draw?

In this hand, QQ is way behind all V's flopped 2P, but way ahead of all his 1P and any air. In hindsight, maybe it's not really WAWB because a lot of his obvious draws are 8 or 9 outs, if not 15 outs.

So we might be WAWB, but could also be a 2-to-1 favorite or only a slight favorite.

WA/WB means exactly what it sounds like. Draws are generally never WA/WB.

The reason for defining this scenario is that it should not favour aggression/large bets/raises.

So yes board texture is the main factor.

So...is this flop a WAWB situation for hero, or not? If it isn't, why not? If it is, why are people suggesting hero raise?

Wa/wb is for when it looks like either you have 2-3 outs or your opponent does. Case in point KK on A27r flop, or big overpair on a 994 flop.

In the OP I go back to basics as it is a low SPR situation against a Lag. The question is how can we get stacks in? Your small cbet seems to have worked to get the party started so I support 3b on flop.

It's weird that his turn chatter is not focused on "do I have the ace or not?" Not loving it but probably still getting it in there.

Yeah, ok, I think quantifying WAWB in terms of number of outs is a good way to understand it.

Versus 2P I have 8 outs, versus a set I've got 2. If he's got TP he's got 5 outs. If he's on a draw he's got 8 to 15.

Seems like he's got way more bluffs and worse value combos than 2P+. So maybe we could say I'm way ahead of his overall range but way behind the top of his range.

This is not wawb! As others said too many draws. Curious re results?

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Just jam the flop over his raise, this guy is definitely calling lots of worse hands. As played, it's whatever, but I'm not folding. The way you describe him, he can have any two in any spot, so I see no reason to let this go. Other than the fact you made this thread, which I'm guessing means he had the goods and you found out the hard way.

I finally got around to reading this hand and the tome preceding it.

My general approach to these whales is that I’m happy to go broke against their sets/2p when they have them and print against their overvalued marginal hands and draws they will be paying a premium for.

Agree with your hindsight that small bet on flop is bad. These villains are inelastic and will also peel/float wide so their equity won’t be denied. So he’s calling this bet and you are in no-man’s land OOP with a dynamic board.

I would bet close to pot or check but if I’m checking, it would be to c/r. AP, our bet size is inducing and this guy has so many worse hands he’s raising. 3-bet his flop raise.

AP after calling flop, we just c/f here. Crappy turn. A lot of his semibluffs are NFDs which are now beating you. Another rule of thumb - when A high boards are better for H’s range and V doesn’t seem to care, fold underpairs. Would be terrible to turn this hand into a bluff. 1) Ax is more credible for hero if flop goes b/c or c/c 2) more importantly, there are clearly no better hands we can fold out.

I love your post, Doc. Yeah, it’s self-indulgent to write your thought processes in a long post. Everyone in the strat forum likes a concise HH. By all means, just open more on the flop and jam to the raise. But this is live poker, not pure theory. Sometimes I feel like one quarter of the posters here have autism. Some are probably pissed they can’t reconstruct so much precise previous histories like you. If Tolstoy were alive , he would tell the whiners: if you don’t like my long post, scroll down to the four letters: OTTH.

IMO, I appreciate your long post here as the OP; however, I skim the long replies to other hands -- that's when I think you are verbose 😉

His table talk seems strong, but who knows? If I didn't mention it earlier, the only reason I would bet small on this flop is to induce so I can jam over his 3bet.

Results?

Lots of text ... it's going to be high variance spots, you have to shrug and leave or shrug and gamble. There's not a lot of great info. even though a lot of text. In general people playing a lot of hands will have to either fold a lot or bluff/call a lot, this guy seems like the later.

I don't see how you can do anything but shove flop, calling to fold on flushes seems terrible as he has so few flush hands preflop.
Folding would need reads I don't see, and calling assuming you know what a wild whale atc guy has seems insane.
Don't mind calling so much if you think he's just going to barrel off air but will fold it on the flop, but you are asking about wtf to do on the turn brick.

It is pretty weird that he checked back 97o on 985 but if I had to guess it's that he was trying to trap AK that might fold flop.

Why do you only have 225 in the 88 hand? Calling preflop seems terrible at this size. Honestly given descriptions it seems like the easiest 3bet shove in the world, and almost certainly 3bet at bigger stack depths.
Him calling off top two pair seems super std. ... he has so much worse trash he kind of has to call, also it's not like you can have KK or really 88/44 and he blocks.

Also first hand you had 500 with JJ and made it 175 into a ~90 pot, which even on BTN is probably a bit too low even thought you said it was "big".
But the last hand you have 700 with QQ and make it 80 into a ~45 pot and basically the entire table behind you incl. the whale on the BTN.
People aren't folding correctly and you are using small sizes with 230bb.

Just go bigger.

As above: Would probably shove flop and hope, or call so I can snap shove this turn after he fires again.

The "As" being bad because it might hit your preflop range or whatever so he shouldn't continue bluffing is bad thoughts ... you have like AcKc/AcQc and maybe AcJc/AhTh/AdTd on the turn, and JJ/QQ/KK. So like 3 combos. of AA and 3 combos. of Ax, and 18 combos. of pairs that might be scared of the A.
Also lol at his flop range having enough Ac*c hands in it so you can fold.

The above probably seems worse tone wise than it would IRL. So a couple of bits of extra advice:

People who play like this (and it's like 99% guys IME) do it to put people in "bad" spots ... so, yeh, you are going to be in some spots where you have to close your eyes and take your 60% equity in a giant pot when you'll never see anything close to the long run.

Sometimes the best thing you can do is just walk away.

Recently spoke to a pretty good young 2-5 player and he is adamant that by far the best "skill" you can have in poker is to not care about the money, and be able to pile 100s of BBs in when you know you are crushed if called (to be fair he doesn't seem to have been on a downswing, but that might also be because he's crushing the game for a stupid winrate).

Also recently was playing 1-2 at Mohegan (400 max buyin) at 2am after playing 8 hours and my table broke. Was considering leaving, but the seat I was assigned was on the direct left of a guy with over $2k in front of him (in a giant mess) and was blind raising to $31 every hand and firing postflop.
So I folded until I got AsTs and 3bet to 125, and then bet 80 and stacked off on Qs8s3x vs. his 6s5s and doubled ... which would have been great if I'd left at that point, because he still had me covered and was playing the same way but now a lot of my options suck and I really didn't want to lose a $2.2k pot when I'm forced to get it in with 60% or so.
Instead I lost 100 back with AK vs. K3o vs. JJ short stack behind me, where technically I could have won some from the maniac if I'd known he had K3o and called his insane bet postflop into an almost dry side pot. Then was also in some really bad spots preflop with a few hands but esp. KQo and 99 where both seemed like terrible folds but one was and the other was genius. Ended up losing a total of 125 back (not including missed equity from folding the best hand) before I got up and walked away.

Grunch.

HH1 I would ship flop with JJ

In the main hand I would ship flop with overpair. As played I’m not folding to the scare card and stacking off.

I appreciate everyone's responses. In hindsight, I do think I should have 3B-jammed flop.

Not arguing with you, only trying to understand - what's the rationale for 3B-jamming flop, but not donk jamming turn on a disconnected over-card?

If we're 3B-jamming flop because his range is so wide, I'd think a disconnected over-card that doesn't complete any of his bazillion semi-bluff draws would be a good card to donk jam, especially an ace if we'd be flatting flop with AA or TT.

It seems contradictory to prefer 3B-jamming flop but not GII on the turn A, particularly when this V would be so likely to 3B pre with his suited aces.

If he's opening UTG and calling a $175 3B with 97o, and getting involved in multi-way pots with 86o, he certainly has all the combos of SC's and S1G's here. So he can have a ton of flush hands pre-flop.

My thinking in game was that he's not always raising his flush draws on the flop, because if he is, he's just bluffing way too much. He's probably only raising his combo draws, 2P+, and maybe (in hindsight), strong top pairs. It was hard in game to be certain about any of that though, after seeing him check back weak top pairs and flat call with top 2P.

What I was thinking was that if the flush or straight does come in, and he keeps betting, I'm just done with it, because he either made his hand, or he's willing to go broke with 2P+. If he was just semi-bluffing, or over-playing 1P, I figured he'd slow down and check back turn.

I'd seen him run multi-street bluffs when opponents showed weakness, but not when someone showed strength. There's no reason for him to think I'm just c-betting with AK/AQ if I call the flop raise, because I'd just fold AK/AQ. If I c-bet the flop and call a raise, I don't have worse than TPTK or a draw to the nuts.

Not really. He had a weak top pair, IP against a pre-flop raiser, who might be going for a x/r. He also checked back a weak top pair (KJ) in HH5. Seemed like that was pretty standard for him.

Because I got stacked for $550 in the JJ hand, reloaded for $300, doubled up a $200 short stack on the very next hand played, taking me down to $100-ish, then doubled up plus a little with AQo on the next shuffle, getting me to $225-ish.

It was a hell of a first orbit or two. In for $800, stuck $700, back to $710, in just five hands played.

We're 9 handed, and there are 5 players behind me. Jamming 88 for 75bb pretty much guarantees we only get called by bigger PP's or end up-flipping HU with over-cards. Flatting for $25 gives us a chance to more than double-up if we flop a set.

We're basically just set-mining with middling pairs here.

UTG1 who opened could have KK, and I could have 88/44. The fact that he partially blocks these hands with K8 matters less if you look at the action, which makes it pretty obvious I flopped a set with 88 or 44, since I'm obviously 3B'ing KK pre, never 3B'ing 44 pre, and might not 3B 88 pre.

UTG1 may be barreling with AA/AK, but V knows my game well enough to understand I'm not going broke with KQ there.

In the JJ hand, I started with $550, not $500 (I won a pot between sitting down and being dealt that hand), and the raise came from UTG1, $20 over a $6 straddle. Can't really go bigger there without putting over 1/3 my stack in, pot-committing myself.

I wanted to raise bigger in the JJ hand because I was in the BB. Normally when I'm OOP I'd go 4x the raise + 1x for each caller, which would have been $140, so $175 off of $550 is big - about as big as I could possibly go.

In the QQ hand, I'm in the HJ, CO had folded every time I 3B, and only V on the BTN will have position on me. The raise in that hand was only $10 (no straddle on). Normally when I'm IP I'd go 3x + 1x for each caller, which would be $60, so $80 is still a decent size 3B here.

I mostly agree with shoving flop. But to be clear, I wasn't giving him much if any AXcc on the flop, because I think he 4B's those hands pre, or he would either flat call my small flop bet, or check-back turn to induce me to bet the river. He's not taking this line with AXcc.

It's impossible and nonsensical for him be raising flop as a bluff, planning to barrel on a turn ace because he thinks I'd be scared of an ace, because he couldn't know an ace was coming, and an ace would be better for my range than his.

Way too many totally unnecessary hand histories. 6 hands and ~40 lines of text!! before the hand.

At least spoiler them or something, by the time I got to the actual hand I lost all motivation.

On the flop he can call off with many worse hands. Value hands like good Tx, JJ, or even some worse pairs if he's really spewy.
And then also draws.

On the turn, he's less likely to call off as many draws given his equity is decreased by half compared to the flop.
And then hands like Tx or worse pairs are also much worse on the A turn and he may fold them.
And he also might have some Ax flush draws which hit turn and have you crushed. also AT.
So when you donk jam turn you make his life pretty easy by folding a lot of hands that you beat, and calling off when you're behind.

That all makes sense. Thanks.

Do you think it makes sense to check-fold turn when he bombs it?

ETA - tell me if this is just bad thinking, but...on the flop, I didn't think he'd fold any of his draws if I jammed. On the turn, I still wasn't sure he'd fold any of his draws to a jam, but at least the A didn't complete any of his more likely draws, so my thinking was that a turn jam puts him in a position to make a bigger mistake by calling compared to if I jam the flop, because his draws have half as much equity.

Now that I typed that out, I understand why jamming the flop is better if we're targeting his draws. I suppose in game I was thinking about how this particular V plays, and thinking about that JJ vs 97o hand, where he called my turn jam with 1P + a double gutter.

Like, if he has QJ here on Tc8c4dAs, he picks up additional outs to a K or 9, but he might not be raising QJ on the flop, unless it's QcJc, which probably has enough equity to call turn profitably anyway.