Second Nuts

You have the second nuts and you need to be good about 30% of the time.

Your hand beats value, although it is concerning that many worse flushes are blocked by the board. Bluffs are rare but there is a “spazz factor” in live low stakes poker.

Folding here would be an extreme deviation. I’m not going to make an extreme play against an unknown. If he has the nuts, at least you didn’t get stacked.

Sigh call, expecting to be good only marginally more than our odds.

Still to call unless you have a crazy amount of info that he's only nutted there.

Players will still sometimes showup with straights even there given they wrongly expect flush draws to bet flop almost always...

Why did you check flop? Why did you check turn?

As played, sigh-call.

Worse flushes, straights, even the odd rarity (KQ, QT, 97, random rubbish). I wouldn't jam over the top, just call.

I'm fine with the way the rest of the hand was played.

Check on the flop and turn are quite good oop mw. As is the check call on the flop. I call river. Probably losing to a fair amount of NF combos but whatever. Not jamming though.

Weird. When I raise KT pre and hit this beautiful flop, I want to start getting some money into the pot. If HJ doesn't bet flop do you still check turn?

Bet flop, bet turn.

V reps very thin on river. He can bluff with his image when the turn checks through and river comes Qd, which blocks a lot of our diamond preflop raise combos if he has the AdX as blocker to the nuts.
We get 2-1 to call and we're over-folding at these odds when we fold with 2nd nuts. If he has it, he has it.

I disagree i think he played it just fine no need to invest money into the pot until were sure its worthwhile

Yeah Im very happy with flop and turn since were OOP. It was more river guess we just have to call

From watching various vlogs, I gather that UK games play a bit more face up, more value-oriented, with less bluffing. In the US, I think this is usually going to be a crying-call at low stakes, unless we just know V is never value betting with worse.

In the UK, I think I could find a fold here, but not easily, and I'd really hate doing it. With the Kd-Td accounted for, he'd have to be over-valuing a 9-high flush, something like 98s, or turning a strong hand on the flop (like KJ) into a bluff, which most low stakes players just won't do (nor will they check back the turn with KJ).

So many low stakes players will call a pre-flop raise with any suited ace, so he could have all the nut flushes here. A lot of players will also call with good offsuit aces, like AKo-AJo, so it's conceivable that he might get here with AK/AQ/AJ with the Ad, and turn his hand into a bluff.

But there again, not too many low stakes players will bet almost full pot on the flop, check back a turn brick, and then raise a chunky river bet with just the naked Ad, when they can just call and possibly win if we're bluffing.

So, in the US, I sigh-call. In the UK, I probably sigh-fold.

I think I snap call.

I think villain's raising range is a bit wider than Axdd only. He can even have some bluffs imho.

Hero's range maybe some slowplayed sets, and maybe even 2pairs(JQ, KQ), and some flushes but rare? Maybe some random straight that got that there AT/9T, but hero needs to have a loose stationy image.

And here, we have the top of our range facing a raise, this is like the easiest snap call ever, maybe even ship on top is possible.

If villain has Ax flush, then call it a cooler.

no gamble no future no equity

I can't believe anyone who raises this hand pre and check/calls this flop then checks this turn and donks the river should ever fold to the river raise. If he has AdXd, so be it.

Yeah I play in the UK and I have the same impression. Bit of a similar discussion here than we had on the last hand I posted. However I'm fairly convinced that this would be a £ call as well on this wet board unless we are very confident V would only raise us with the NF.

I'm okay with the flop check but do we lead turn if flop is checked through?

I agree with javanewt completely. If you are going to check on the flop with that board, you should just fold KTs preflop.

Sure checking flop sometimes is ok? Usually you'd bet. River obviously you can't fold ffs

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Im really unsure why checking that flop is so bad OOP to two players. I would have to check a lot of hands in this spot so checking some stronger ones cant be that bad?

I think this is right. You have a weak kicker but there are no real scare cards for you. I think default is to bet your hand but checking sometimes is fine.

Results?

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I'm fine with the flop check from OOP. I actually prefer it.

I think the point they're making is that we under-repped our hand by checking flop, and so it's possible V is over-valuing a worse hand, or turning something with SDV into a bluff, when he could just flat call our raise and win when we're bluffing or over-valuing a worse hand. When V checks back turn, we're supposed to be betting frequently on the river.

The challenge I have is that it's hard to see what worse hands V would have when he almost pots it on the flop, checks back the brick turn, then raises river over our almost PSB when the most obvious draw comes in. We're repping a very strong hand, and the Kd, Qd, Jd, and Td are all accounted for.

It's unlikely V shows up with KK/JJ/QQ/66 after flatting pre and checking back turn. Doubtful he's raising with KQ, straights or worse flushes, when we can have all the AXdd and KXdd in our range.

V flatting pre, betting almost pot on the flop, checking back turn on a brick, and raising river is pretty consistent with AXdd. It's pretty inconsistent with 9Xdd. Others are saying we need to know V is always nutted to make a fold. I say we need to know V is capable of having bluffs to make the call.

If we know V is capable, okay, sure, he can have AdTx that might make sense - he flops a GSSD with a BDNFD, and now blocks the nuts. But that's just three combos. He could have any of the seven combos of AXdd and it would make just as much sense.

Dan G rightly points out that we need to be good here 30% of the time. If we know V is capable of doing this with AdTx, we can call, because it's 3 combos of AdTx and 7 combos of AXdd.

But to do that, V has to A) believe his straight is never good when we bet, because we have a flush B) be willing to turn his hand into a bluff, in order to get us to fold a flush, and C) think we're good enough to fold KXdd here, or bad enough to bet-call with a hand worse than Broadway. That's a stretch.

Calling requires us to think V knows we have a flush, which undercuts the idea that our hand is under-repped because we checked flop, and requires us to think that V thinks we'll lay down the 2nd nuts. Otherwise, V just has to be spazzing with straights or worse at some frequency.

All we know about V is that he's tight. Is he good tight or bad tight? Would he do this with the naked Ad? With two pair? How does V see H? So many questions.

I am not checking this flop, and if I do, it's often to check/raise. We raised pre, flopped beautifully, totally lost control of the hand, and now we are considering folding the second nuts. Why bother raising pre?

What are you talking about, "totally lost control of the hand"?

We're OOP to two opponents. Checking the flop is totally standard. V bet almost full pot. Flatting with a not-all-that strong TP3K + the 2nd NFD + BDSD is pretty standard. We made the 2nd nuts on the river, and bet our hand for value, almost full pot.

OP didn't do anything wrong here. He hasn't lost control. He's played it perfectly to this point.

How often have you seen "tight" players raise in spots like this without the nuts? I rarely see loose players raise here without the nuts. This is a pretty aggro play. V's raise is only 3.5x. If we want to say he could be bluffing, wouldn't he raise bigger, at least some of the time, to polarize? This raise size practically screams, "PLEASE CALL!"

So he's so tight that we are giving him credit on the river, but he bet the flop big with a flush draw into two players, including the OR?

We've been given no other reads, no HH, no idea how V sees H. Personally, I'm not raising KTs to hit this flop and then play passively.

Yeah I agree with these points. That I haven't not played with V long at all, Only seen him play a few pots and not do much raising. so when he started to play a hand aggressively I started getting concerns. I dont think from the small sample I saw he will be turning any hands into bluffs. My main concern was would he raise a small flush in this spot.