medium sized pot with tptk against a LAG (hey at least its not Jacks this time)

I think that overbetting the river is spew, since Villain is never folding 2-pair+. I think 1/2-3/4 psb is fine, since it's difficult to believe Villain would check behind the turn with a made hand on this drawy board.

If he does shove over you, it would seem like a pretty easy fold, unless you think he's that rare, low limit player who can pull the trigger on this type of bluff.

I like betting. Something in the realm of 100-125 planning to fold if raised. You might think check to induce but the reality is people underbluff. There are missed draws but there are also hands like AJ, KJ, JT, J9. You may also find that if you check, some two pair hands bet larger, but he just calls your bet.

Recreational players overplay the line of bet, bet, check call. Your hand is strong enough to bet out of position and people underbluff.
The max exploitative strat is to bet-fold.

I wouldn't overbet here since you are targeting mainly Jx, maybe QdXd if you don't have the Qd, and villain can have two pair here. You don't want to isolate his range to only hands that beat you, unless he is very stationy.

Important to know your suits.

I may check flop.

Action should cap V at one pair or draws as he really should not get to river with a straight/set/2 pair without a raise on either flop or turn.

Therefore both c/c to induce a bluff or betting for value make sense. Betting large doesn’t make sense given the value target. Your read doesn’t shed light on his post flop tendencies. Will he overbluff missed draws? If so, maybe a block bet/call makes the most sense.

acescracked84 wrote

Thank You for your response. May I ask what is wrong with the flop bet? Is the sizing wrong? should this be a check?

Why 130? What part of Villains range is he calling with?

FLOP - Think I'd mostly just check from OOP. Might bet or go for a check raise with AdQd, but with AQo I'm not looking to bloat the pot. Fine with check folding if he bets big, or check calling if he bets small.

TURN - T9 was already there on the flop, so no reason to be afraid of a straight now if we weren't then. Since V isn't entirely capped here, I'd mostly just check. If we bet, maybe bet small, like half pot, to see if he raises.

RIVER - kinda hate checking and betting here. If our read is that he over-calls, I guess we bet around $120. If we think he over-bluffs, check-evaluate, with plans to call anything up to 2/3 pot.

The problem with betting flop and barreling turn is that he can have better hands that don't raise flop or turn because of the potential straight on board, but also won't fold, like 2P, or even some sets. He's also not folding his flush draws on the flop, or the turn if we bet small.

So betting flop and turn from OOP doesn't do much to define his range the way checking to him would. We could easily be value-owning ourselves if we bet three streets, or opening the door to get bluffed off the best hand if we slow down and check river.

V can have ATC from BTN straddle. Unfortunately, there's been no mention of H's image to V. V has set up a spot to float H in a raised pot. Why?

Prefer to check flop oop.

H can have JJ/QQ and NFD. So V continues to call as H bangs away on flop and turn. I cannot see how V can float like this without Ad blocker or the actual nuts. Two pair or set should raise. Obv he can have FD.

AP river: We are ahead of stuff like AdTx that turned equity and can bluff diamond rivers. We beat busted FDs. Checking turns our hand into a bluff catcher. Value betting on a board without the range/nut advantage seems like a bad idea. Polar bet makes no sense.

We have no great options on river with a bloated pot. I think xc>value bet>polar bet. The big mistake was making this a three-street hand when it's not.

FWIW I don’t think Villain had an image of hero. Maybe I’m not giving my Vs at these stakes enough credit. I had only been at the table for about an hour. Playing tag. I won every pot I entered except one. Most of these pots were won without showdowns.

Spanishmoon I don’t understand your question about V setting up a spot to float. I guess because he is in position and I cbet. But V could be flatting with any of his range worth continuing with. Including the nut straight.

I understand how difficult the River is which is why I started the thread. Opinions are much appreciated.

Hand results coming later.

How would you describe V’s post flop play? Sticky/stationy? Aggressive with draws? Bluffy?

I think somewhere around 140-190 is good. Fold to any raise/

Villain's range that snap calls flop+turn, probably something like Jx, QT, 98, 8T, 99, tt,56, flush draws, pair+fd, some combo draws

Hero's range Qx, Overpairs, 9t, sets, 78, AJ, some flush draws/combo draws.

Villain never has a strong hand that snap calls flop+turn unless he hits the river.

I've seen some a similar spot/board recently, but it was a 3 way pot, and river was a back door flush card.

The oop player shipped w/KK, Fish snap shove with the bd flush, another snap call the river after hitting the river st8.

Villains post flop play:
Unfortunately I wasn’t paying attention but I’d say sticky passive when he wasn’t the pre flop raiser, and Aggressive when he was. Did not see him make any big mistakes.

OTTH

Hero’s normal play is to bet 1/3 pot. But he was convinced V was on a flush draw that busted. V won’t call with a missed draw. And this guy is the type to bluff.
Hero also knows that if V has two pair a check on the River will let him know he is good and he’ll bet big. But I was willing to take that risk.

Hero checks.
Villains checks, shows KJo

Hero scoops pot wondering if he left money behind.

After thinking about this hand I realize that there are a lot of pair plus draw combos that could check back, but might call a small bet. Wish I could have known this before.

Never betting this flop with this hand. Probably should be checking most of range.

The reason you were left guessing on the river is that you bet flop and turn, rather than checking at some point, which could have given us the info needed to know what to do on the river.

If your read was that he's sticky post flop, maybe we could use that to find a thin value bet, with a plan to fold if he raises. But that line is going to be higher variance than checking flop or turn, seeing if he bets, then making either a delayed c-bet or delayed double barrel if he checks back.

Regardless, I think you got max EV here. If you check-call flop and turn, he's probably checking back river. If he checks back flop, and we lead turn, we probably only get two streets, and maybe just one. You could go for thin value and bet-fold river, which wins more when he calls with worse, but loses more when he calls or raises with better.

Hand is fine. I don't mind the flop bet as much as others. He called a raise from his straddle and could have ATC, and I don't mind taking it down now or making him pay to see a turn.

On another note, if I know this guy is raising his straddle if limped to, I limp/3bet.

FWIW, if he's the action at the table, I hope you can get a table change. I have more action in my pinky toe.

Javanewt wrote
I limp/3bet.

I made a mental note to do this. I can’t seem to pull the trigger with anything less than big PP.

I have more action in my pinky toe.

First off. Do you have an only fans. Jk

Secondly this was the most action table I think I’ve seen. Villain in this hand was probably the 4th most “spewy” at the table. There were several LAGS and Loose Passives. One player had never played before. I was up over $500in less than three hours.

Right around the three hour mark things changed. The villain here left and was replace by an ultra TAG. Two aggressive players with large stacks from a busted 2-5 game sat down.

I looked around and saw only one bad player. And decided to leave. I was left wondering “Am I a good player or just a bully who can only take from the weak?” Eventually I stopped asking myself this and just told myself “I have bills to pay. And I can chalk this up to table selection.”

LOL.

Seriously, though, being told someone is the "action" at the table and then reading he "seems to limp and call more often then raising" does not compute. Also, he just flatted your flop bet in position w/ top pair as straddler -- no action there.

Glad you booked a win.

Flop bet is bad because you have nothing, among other things. You need to bet the river. I disagree this isn't a value bet even as played.

Yeah, in addition to a J villain could have QT or Q9 (would have gotten here due to the gutshot) or Qx of diamonds. I think we can bet river small and fold to a raise.