Set facing 4x pot shove on 3-flush turn

Did we see his hand when he jammed 120 into 25?

My gut says we should fold but that would be a disaster if he’s doing this with K5o with the 5 of diamonds.

At these stack sizes in a rake-pot game, 99 is an easy fold from the sb, since you don't offer any reads on the raiser, you're not deep enough to set-mine, and being OOP means it's going to be difficult for you realize your equity, even if you play perfectly post-flop...which you clearly didn't.

I don't understand the flop donk bet, and I really don't understand checking the turn, unless you wanted him to shove...and now you're thinking of doing anything other than snap-calling!?

PRE - think it's worth at least considering a 3B with 99 in the SB.

Might mix calling and 3B'ing. Otherwise seems fine to flat call if we think BB isn't squeezing too often.

FLOP - not sure about the donk, or the sizing.

Seems like a spot where V will c-bet often enough, and we can put in a check raise. Don't hate the donk if any of our opponents are spewy, where BB will call, UTG will call (or raise), and CO will over-call. But in most cases I think I'd prefer a chunky check raise.

If we donk, I think we can go bigger with the sizing, like full pot or even an over-bet, to get max value from AA/AK and draws. This 1/2p sizing wouldn't seem to accomplish much.

TURN - mostly just fold, unless we've seen V do this with bluffs.

When we donk small on the flop, it looks like we either have a decent top pair, or we're setting our own price to draw. When the FDFD comes in, we check, and V jams, it looks like he's not afraid we might be sand bagging with a flush. It makes me think he was fine calling off the 1/2p donk because he was on a better draw.

Would have been interesting to see how he reacts if we barreled turn for 1/2 pot again. If he jams over a bet, we're torching, but if he flats to trap, we give ourselves a decent price to fill up on the river.

Pre is fine. Flop I'd probably go for a check/raise if this guy likes to c-bet.

As played, I probably call this guy (depending on what he had in the other hand, but he obviously wasn't nutted because it seems he lost?). He so easily has AdKx, AdAx, or similar. If he has the flush we have outs. I can't imagine he's just calling KK on flop.

I'm big on not calling pairs preflop anywhere near as much as people normally do, but 99 $365 deep in a 1-2 game is maybe okay ... a lot of it depends on how good UTG is.
You need to win 120 more post when you hit, which can be very easy or very unlikely depending.
We can certainly at least mix 3bet too, depending on our thoughts of his opening range.

Hate the flop lead, esp. for this size.

On the turn ... people just aren't balanced here, and at 1-2 it's roughly 99.99% perceived value. Even when I've played at 2am vs. the guy who might be a bit drunk and a bit bluffy and opening too wide, they just aren't bluffing enough of the time.

So about the only thing I'd really be worried about folding against is 77d ... but that's only two combos. Maybe another one if he has 77 pure.
Got to have way more NF value combos. though, and maybe KK (or even non-nut flushes) if V decides you never have flushes.

If you really think he can be bluffing close to 50% of the time, I guess call ... but again he might be special and be bluffing even 35% of the time and you are still torching. You almost have to think he'll be bluffing 100% of the time and never doing this with value for you to call.

Also don't see why you can't have the nuts here.

Probably better to call this than QdJd, but still just fold.

Utg has Aces with the ace of diamonds more than half the time and AKdx most of the rest of the time

Snap call

So the read is that V has AAd or AdKx, but just calls the flop half pot donk with a strong hand ... so that he can 4x pot "bluff us" off better when we check a turn diamond.

I mean the previous HH needs way more info. because AdQx/AdJx/AdTx/Ad8x/Ad7x/Ad6x are all plausible depending on how insane he is, but AAd/AdKx would only even attempt to make sense if H bet pot on turn ... or maybe if V is on drugs and doesn't know how big the pot is.

I am not going to get to results yet. Calling with 99 seems super standard. You could 3!, but it isn't really a good hand to 3! light with, because you could get called by higher pairs and don't make many draws to semibluff with. Folding is insane. You are playing it 3 or 4 ways for a set and you can often continue unimproved.

I agree my flop bet was bad. I wasn't looking enough at the flop texture. It was fairly wet, so a x/r could look like a draw and the preflop raiser might cbet a k-high board. I learned with Doyle's book way back to lead out with a set to make it look like a weak made hand or draw, hoping to provoke a raise and getting to lead to keep firing. Also, that makes sure the flop is bet. But it was a bad play here.

I was planning to x/c the turn. Was somewhat shocked by the shove. 23% against a flush with some pot odds even with the overbet. Of course if villain is bluffing, he generally has a flush draw, maybe with a straight draw or a higher pp, so he has outs too. I could have bet with a draw and be trapping with the turn check or have a strong non flush hand like I had, but the lead and check the turn might have seemed weak to the preflop raiser.

Did you see his other shove hand? What was the board like?

I really screwed this hand up. I need to work on unusual plays, live reads, profiling players, and being willing to sometimes call big bets.

Everyone folded to his previous overbet push. I folded this and he showed Qd. Could have had the flush, but more likely QQ or KQo. With the 2nd nut or nut flush, he probably would not shove like maybe with a low flush and not sure he was raising suited connectors UTG. Why not gii in 2 bets with a flush.

Later he overshoved the turn again on QJ48 with a 2-flush coming on the turn. He had AQs for TPTK and nut flush draw and was snap called by JJ. He busted out then and went home.

So he tripled up, lost it all, rebought, and now you are here? You should have some decent reads on this guy 😉

I'm not a fan of overcalling, even less so out of position. That said, I can see the temptation. A big UTG raise and a call doesn't fill me with excitement with 99 and I'm not wanting to pile money in with a squeeze from SB. On the other hand, 99 feels a decent hand to call, you can sometimes find yourself with top set or an overpair, so if there was ever a spot to overcall with OOP this might be it. Even so, I'd probably marginally favour a fold.

You don't provide info on UTG but regardless, UTG should be TP+ a fair amount and this isn't a flop that wants to let people in cheaply... should we expect cbets a fair amount? Some people are (not unreasonably) just saying "it's 4-way, I check". I don't totally hate the flop lead.

I don't see people jamming 4x with AdK much. This is so polarised and there are plenty of flushes and better sets.

It's only "insane" if you have a significant post-flop skill edge over your opponents.

Preflop, I am calling with any pp here at least 3-ways. If it was HU, I might fold 99 and would fold lower pps. I don't think this is a good configuration or hand to 3!.

I don't hate the over call for 11 more and 360 back. It's fine, even as a pure set-mine 4 ways.

When you hit the set, on Kd9d7x, I have no idea what you were thinking donking out. 4-ways. 1st to act, and a UTG opener. Seems like the easiest x-r ever.

Ripping it for 330 into 88, seems absolutely stupid vs your action. You look like you're trying to set your price for drawing with a

I feel like an idiot, and I have seen results, but calling here with 2nd set. If you brick, rebuy, you'll get it back vs this V. Next time, anyway.

I think the consensus is that if we donk or check-raise flop on a two-flush board, and then the flush comes in on the turn, we'd keep betting if we had the flush, not check. So when we check, it means we never have the flush.

I don't really agree with that, because I'll raise flop with flush draws, and then check turn when I make my hand, precisely because it looks like I raised the flop with 2P or a set that is now giving up. People don't seem to give opponents credit for raising the flop with a draw.

The point is that if you did play a flush draw this way, you're printing against this V, and any other V who wants to jam turn with just one pair + a FD or just a naked FD. But if you play 2P and sets this way, you're pretty face up, and opening the door for V to bluff you when the obvious draw comes in.

If we flop a set on a monotone board, or the FD draw completes on the turn, we still have equity to boat up on the river, assuming we're not still ahead. I'd prefer to barrel, as if we have the draw that came in. Basically, I'd play 2P, sets, and the flush draw the same way.

You're vastly overestimating your implied odds of stacking a random caller, while underestimating how much EV you're losing by allowing a third person into the pot...and none of this even considers the $5-$10 rake/promo drop coming out of the pot.

You are getting better immediate odds playing a pp 3-way than 2-way. Even in limit holdem, you can play like 44 if it is going to go 4-way. Besides, you aren't playing 99 just to set mine.

I feel better seeing there wasn't a consensus here. I was pretty sure afterwards I should have called, particularly after seeing him do this with TPTK and nut flush draw later on. Seeing the Qd didn't tell me too much, and I guess he intended it that way.

In my very short time playing NL I have seen several times people going all in big on the turn in situations like this and almost all the time had either a small flush or a combo draw. Sometimes they have a worse set or two pair or just nonsense. I think NL players are too addicted to making big folds. I'm shocked people want to fold this hand.

If hero 3B to $60 pre, and pots it on the flop, V might want to get stacks in right there and then. If not, stacks are probably going in on the turn.