Interesting spot in loose/fishy 5-5 Live PLO game

There is a reg in my game that I would snap fold this too. He has all the characteristics your V has except maybe your V knows how to bluff.

GTO this is a snap call with 3 spades.

You're calling for the possibility he didn't see the flush.

And it came in.

Not sure I understand what you mean … so you say it’s rather a fold?

Snap call more bc of the 3 spades, or bc villain didnt continue on the flop?

BTW:
Any of you guys lead on flop or turn?

You've got a big enough hand and enough hands improve on this turn to the point they want to bet, and you've got a big enough stack behind, that I quite like a c/r.

Against this player type? Yes. Unless you've seen him bluffraise rivers. A small portion of this player type as described is capable of bluffing rivers to begin with, an even smaller fraction will be capable of bluffraising. It's so rare that you're calling more to pick off a misread. Basic profiling.

As to the tell from him acting extremely quickly, this guy's brand is honesty. When he calls quickly, it means he's got a hand that's strong enough to call but not strong enough to raise all-in with. Which suggests his hand at least contains a draw, and given he's bet to begin with, it's far more likely to be a nutty draw.

Again, this player type tends to take their time thinking through a bluff rather than acting quickly. So when he calls the turn quickly, if he was planning to turn his hand into a bluff by raising the river, he would likely have taken some time to think through that plan.

that is so interesting ... so you actually calculate a potential misread by him as a factor for calling? never heard that before, thx for that.

which in turn means, with a slightly weaker hand you'd probably lead. got it.

I think you are toast vs. this player type unless you mis-labeled him. Not sure if I could fold, but unless you emphasize "bad" in the description and he's doing this w/ a straight, set, or worse flush, we are probably beat.

There is no quantitative calculation, only a qualitative one. I have observed enough misreads to be aware that it happens often enough; the player as described is a walking bundle of risk factors for misreading his cards and/or the board; our 3 spades, reducing the likelihood he actually has the flush, makes it more likely that he's misread his hand; and lastly that the population under bluffs rivers anyway and severely under bluffraises rivers.

I see no risk factors going the other way, leading me to believe that while thid particular outcome was quite unlikely, if you are facing a worse hand, it is far more likely than otherwise to be a misread.

Consider further he has two ways to misread: not see the available flush, or think he's double suited when he's actually only single suited.

yeah ... in game i thought he was lying (trying to justify his play when getting caught; saving face so to say, important to him), but now i lean more towards him actually telling the truth (not seeing it)

Pre - 3bet. Perfect rundown Q hi single suit is good enough to throw in our merged 3b range at live poker. Call is correct in theory but I’d rather play this in a 3b and call a 4b than take it multi-way OOP live. The suit loses almost all value multi-way.

Flop - as played we can either lead, as we have great playability on runouts, or check call. I don’t like XR as we are too merged with this hand. It’s not strong enough for stacks but has too much value to fold. I prefer check call and would lead with all Q pairs with nut flush.

Turn - I dont prefer to XR here as our hand has great playability on runouts. I’d much rather POT lead here as we are uncapped. XR is fine tho but not really sure what we get called by as everyone is super capped due to the flop checking around. Plus us blocking both straight draws and flush draws along with top two means people shouldn’t have much, if anything at all and I’d rather lead or use this to check call to allow bluffs and mergey crap hands like bottom two to bet and get some value from. XR just folds a lot of junk and narrows the range too much.

River - nut changing and you potted previous street, I personally would check call/raise (depending on opp) here as played. You represented a hand like a set or top 2 on the previous street and this is the perfect hand to check and allow your opponent rope to bluff or value bet a worse hand. Potting on this river is super polar but doesn’t make much sense. Most your range will want to check here and you also block the nut straight and sets which u would be targeting here with a block bet. As played though it’s a very underbluffed line. Can very easily have a hand like AKJ with spades. I wouldn’t fold the 2nd NF with 3 spades in my hand tho. I would seriously think about it with only 2 spades tho and would almost always fold if I had specifically the Q and the J of spades.

So, you called and won, and he claimed to have misread the board / his hand?