KT on T744 board facing an overbet.

Calling preflop is pretty bad when you're only 100BB deep, especially if your plan is to fold TP on this turn after the bottom card pairs.

fold pre
call turn

Call. V just watched a Marc Goone video and is going ham w/J9

3!/f pf. AP, I want to call turn, but us having the Tc isn't great.

Fold or 3bet pre. As played, I probably just fold unless i have a really good read on this player.

Allowing opens in $1 increments in a 5/5 game is some depraved nonsense.

I’d rather 3bet this pre

I’m pretty aggressive so I raise this flop bet most of the time

As played call turn

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I think folding turn is good here actually.

It's not a board where he wants to have tons of overbets. We have more 4x and also if he's ABC player he likely is just weighted towards value imo, and will also be barreling river at a high freq after the overbet.

The solver calls the turn 90+% of the time. Calling with cheese PF and then folding TP on this turn just seems bad. In fact, if Hero calls the turn overbet, the solver is actually indifferent on the river if Villain bets pot on a brick...although it recommends folding 2:1 to a shove.

Just a classic example of how calling with cheese sets us up to leak mucho chips across the hand.

Many people assume calling turn = calling river shove on brick, which is wrong, alot of regs will overbet with draws on turn and give up on brick rivers.

From op’s post, im assuming he just folded turn, which should lead to a fold preflop, preflop is a blunder tbh, 3.55x raise in a raked game, oop, KTo performs so bad vs co range, i think we can call if its bvb, if its btn vs bb, we can 3b or fold, co or earlier its just a pure fold.

Tend to agree. It's very V dependent. It is a pretty good calling hand which I guess is why solver calls 90% or whatever. But if V is an unimaginative reg, he sees a drawy board. His overpair looks a lot better as he now beats T7 and 44 is cut down. He wants to really make combo draws pay and hopes you still call with T7 or even just a T.

OTOH if he has a nice draw himself, the 4 turn is kind of bad because there is some chance he is drawing dead and it's not really a scare card, so I don't think many players at this level are going to really pile it in with a draw here. There are many hands he can prob get you to fold without such a big bet, like a 7, 55, crappy draws.

Yes pre is def a fold.

But who cares what a solver does. This is completely irrelevant in these games and will cause you to have significant leaks if you're trying to mimic sims. The pool plays nowhere near solver, so neither should we in response.

if this spot is even a bit underbluffed which it very likely is, our call becomes very -EV

How do you know that this "reg, playing for profits" is underbluffing? Of course you don't know--it's just a lot easier to say "LOL sims, it's obvious I should fold to aggression from a low-limit fish." This is just lazy thinking.

Furthermore, anyone who says, "Sims are irrelevant in these games, just play exploitatively" without actually knowing where equilibrium is or how much opponents are deviating are just aping the words of TAGfish who haven't learned anything new since reading Sklansky or Miller 20 years ago.

Don't take my word for it. Maybe Phil Galfond can convince you:

In order to gain the big edges that come from exploits, you need to give yourself the freedom to try! And to trust yourself with that freedom, you need to understand optimal strategy. This is why you shouldn’t just skip the part about learning what optimal poker looks like because “you’re not going to play GTO anyway.”

A friend who’s a keynote speaker told me, “Once you really know your speech, you can go off-script and improvise as much as you want because you’ll always be able to find your way back.”

The same is true about your poker strategy. If you’ve prepared well and you understand the fundamentals of the game, you will be armed with the knowledge to know where, when, and how to deviate.

Is a profitable reg underbluffing here? Seems to me that this spot is probably overbluffed by most regs. There are a ton of very natural semi-bluffs on the turn if you think that the big blind would raise most 4s and the risk of the BB ck/jamming anything other than a trips+ is near zero. Which IRL, how often is BB slowplaying anything good here? Virtually never. If hero has any set or two pair here, are you going to suggest calling the flop? No. You're going to x/r this small Cbet nearly 100% of the time because if V has JJ-AA you want them to pay you before the flush draw hits, if they have Axs FD/BDFD you would want to raise the price for the draw. In theory, you should ck/call 2 pair+ sometimes on this flop. In practice, nobody is doing that at $5/$5.

So when the 4 hits, V only has to worry about 4x as the brick wall. And given the texture, 4x is going to donk sometimes (and a decent player would have at least considered x/r a 4x on the flop sometimes). As a result, I think most profitable regs are going to find an overbet here with most of their Ax FD and Ax BDFD. V has a ton of Ax FDs, some combo draws and maybe going nutter with 7xd. V opened from the CO for a typical amount, so I have to think various mid SCs are in his range.

What value does V have? JJ-AA. Are they overbetting 100%? A "tight reg"? No. They are doing this maybe 50% with their overs. Hero can have a ton of 4x because H was BB in a SRP. Almost every suited 4x, maybe a few offsuit too. A reg should recognize that and slow down with the overpairs because getting x/r turn is miserable and probably forces a fold. So value is TT, maybe 77 sometimes? Though I think 77 probably bets bigger on flop. And is boat+ overbetting this turn? Not 100%. I'd have to be against a very splashy opp to overbet a boat here. Because I would want to keep in the FDs, or better yet, get opponent to x/r a FD. So if I were V, with a boat+, I'd bet like $60 which is going to rope in most FDs that are drawing dead and leave 2x SPR which is an ok shove on some rivers.

With a FD, as V, I'm happy to take the pot now and if Hero call I have outs and am in position just in case Hero has a boat.

So I think V is heavy with semi-bluffs and very light on value with an overbet. That makes folding terrible. Calling is ok, but I'm not a huge fan because we are in the fog on a lot of rivers and checking again opens the door to a lot of bluffs if V has the courage. Though a lot of regs will mistakenly ck back Ax thinking that maybe they have SDV. I think the same reg that is overbluffing turn with Ax FD, is also overchecking river. So a ck with the plan to ck/fold the river is probably a good exploit against most regs.

My favored play would be x/jamming the turn. Is a "tight reg" going to call us with JJ-AA? No. I don't think so. Are they calling with AK FD? Your opponent just x/jammed on a paired board into your overbet. You could be drawing dead. In V's mind, Hero could be playing TT, 77, 44, and 74 exactly like this. ATcc maybe has to think about hero calling because it blocks TT, but hero blocks ATcc. That's a really hard call to make. A4 is probably the most obvious hand that probably makes a crying call. Turn it around and ask people here if they cbet flop and overbet turn and are jammed on, should we call? Nearly 100% in this forum would tell you to fold everything below a boat.

So against a reg I'm jamming, and if called by AA, cashing in my one time to hit that miracle T on the river. At least I got some good advertising and my x/r will be disrespected in the future. Calling is ok but any pressure on any non T river is miserable. Folding is just losing. If you're going to fold here, you never should have called pre. Which is an option (but I'm calling KTo 100% in this situation).