Not Scared in the slightest by the River

What is 5/T/Q? (The smallest number I can think of that begins with Q is a quadrillion)

River feels like it's probably fairly indifferent? Might feel a little more secure with AQ but there's probably not much in it.

Flop call looks OK with backdoor. Preflop is probably alright although positions may mean a 4bet is an option as well to get heads up (and maybe get folds from AQo)? Again I don't think it's a big deal either way

5/T/Q = $5/10/25

Nice hand, regardless of how you responded to the river shove, since the solver is indifferent here.

FWIW, the solver is also indifferent to calling/folding the flop.

thanks yeah I mean if solver is indifferent otf and otr then exploitatively both calls will become quite -EV if Villian is underbluffing even in the slightest (which I deem to be a fair assumption in almost every spot in live poker).

so in that case I like fold river and fold flop, too.

I probably just fold the flop vs. this player. As played, river is whatever -- I can go either way but it's difficult to believe we are ahead vs. someone who rarely bluffs regs.

Given the 1/4 psb on the flop, Villain would have to be a super nit for me to fold here with both backdoor draws in a 3-bet pot, even if my A is no good. In fact, if you're folding this flop, it would probably be better just to fold to the PF 3-bet.

OTOH, since the solver is indifferent on the river, it's fine to fold here if you don't think he's capable of jamming for 3/4 pot with worse than AJ.

P.S. Without running specific sims, you can't say that if someone is "underbluffing even in the slightest, " then the solver results are meaningless...since no human plays perfectly balanced.

I’d want a spade in my hand to go for the bluff catch here. I’m folding this

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Grunch:

Whenever I have no idea what to do, it seems to usually be a situation where it's really close, and a solver would mostly be indifferent. That's how this one feels.

If V is shot-taking, and unlikely to be bluffing regs, I might fold the flop, though with our BDFD, that seems a little tight. Probably sigh-folding the river, thinking that V isn't jamming as a bluff after we raise pre, call his 3B, call the flop, and call the A turn.

We're going to have enough AK/KK/88 in our range to make V skittish about doing this with worse for value or as a bluff. Not even sure he does this with AQ all that often.

Not sure it matters, but, if he checked river, would you bet this hand for value? If not, that would push me to fold when he jams.

Definitely not folding the flop when he bets 200 into 775. His sizings make me think he's more bluff heavy - I'm also curious what he jams on the river for value when the flush comes in. I think I'd fold the river regardless - not many natural bluffs and we can easily have a flush yet he's jamming.

On the flop I am actually surprised you just called to such a weak and strange sized bet. I would have probably re raised 2/3 pot and fold to a 3! I mean calling is okay but if he's on a draw your letting him set the price of the draw instead of punishing him. Had you taken that line you could have really dropped a piano on him for the turn and if he re-raises you we have to find the fold button.

1. As played I would have folded for sure on the river even though its pretty apparent that he's bluffing but we can't really call here can we?
2. Less likely but possible by the play here is he may have had a weak flush draw and priced himself without your aggression hit and have no worries to jam.

It goes both ways really... they both end in a fold.

My initial read on the flop though is QQ, 10's or 9's don't see JJ here because your blocking.

Side question what is the typical open at the table that would help a lot.

Wow, it's a LLSNL thread about a high stakes hand, and everyone has correctly identified exactly how to play the hand. High fives all around!

If someone is underbluffing even in the slightest, then you should in fact fold bluff catchers. That's the fundamental meaning of the indifference principle.

The last time I received a compliment like this it left a knuckle imprint on my cheek. 😀

I prefer fist bumps!

So if a solver is 50-50 between calling and folding, one should always fold to someone who bluffs 23% in a situation where they should be bluffing 25% of the time?

Of course, for live play, it's seems pretty silly to think we're going to know precisely how often someone bluffs on any run-out.

I agree with your analysis, and I previously noted that I'm fine folding the river if Villain is likely bluffing less than optimally.

Are you also folding to the flop bet?

I'll be honest I'm surprised that your solver is indifferent between call/fold OTF. Peeling would be a no-brainer for me. Also the most analogous sim I have in PIO shows outright positive expectation for continuing, even against B33 in a sim where villain isn't range betting.

In any case, the calculus is different OTF for several reasons:

1) I don't have much reason to think he's underbluffing the flop. Maybe he's under 3bing preflop, but I will have already adjusted for that preflop and PIO's showing me a positive expectation with this hand even with tighter configurations. OTF, I just assume he's range betting, so I definitely don't think he's underbluffing relative to whatever his range is going to the flop.

2) The EV is not as simple OTF as when you're closing the action OTR, so the same theoretical concept doesn't apply. There are all sorts of reasons why you could peel with a hand worse than the bottom of villain's value range even if they are underbluffing. The fact that they will tilt toward playing tighter and more straightforward on later street, if anything, incentivizes you to peel lighter and realize thinner equity.

3) The strategic risk of explo-folding to a 1/4p flop cbet are *significantly* higher than folding to a triple barrel shove and the direct EV gained from "correctly" doing it once are much slimmer.